Derek Mancini
Today's Winner...
50 Dime play on the Jets plus the points over the Patriots. New York is getaing 3 1/2 points pretty much everywhecre olfshore and in Vegas. Go ahead and buy the 1/2 point insurance at anywhere from 3 to 4 1/2.
Make no mistake, the public is all over the Patriots in this contest, and that alone should have their backers extremely worried. This is one of the biggest most anticipated games of the season, I know, you know it, and oddsmakers know it. Therefore, fading the public is imaediately a sound strategy here, because the action on this game will be huge, and it's all one-sided.
Both offenses have been rock-solid of late (Patriots get the slight edge), but the difference here is the Jets don't need to score as much. Why? Because they enjoy a big edge on defense. Jets have some guy named Darrelle Revis, maybe you've heard of him (sarcasm)? And coupled with a solid # 2 CB in Cromartie the Patriots receivers are going to be limited to say the least. A lot of Patriots backers are touting the Hernandez/Gronkocwski match up against the Jets linebackers, but they've been inconsistent at best, and if you think the Pats are going to win because of their TEs, then you're in for a disappointment.
And don't read too much into the Jim Leonhard injury. Yes, he made the reads for the defense, but this is a very talented group, and Ryan is one of the better defensive minds in the game. He'll have his team ready, especially with the extra time to prepare. It doesn't hurt that their expecting winds in excess of 20 mph, which should limit the deep passing game somewhat.
The biggest key/edge the Jets have is with their ground game against a soft New England rush defense, which allows 110 rushing yards/game (4.2 ypc). Ryan has been smart to conserve Tomlinson's energy by splitting carries with Green lately, and both should be fresh for this match up. As much as they've been serviclable, the New England tandem of Woodhead and Green-Ellis is going to be in for one of their toughest match ups all year, as the Jets are superb vs the run (86 ypg on just 3.4 ypc). Tom Brady can't hurt you if he's on the sideline watching the Jets move the chains.
Finally, for all of you out there fading Sanchez, remember what he did to this Patriots secondary the last time they met: 21 of 30 for 210 yards, 3 TDs and no picks. That was in Week 2, before he got game changer Santonio Holmes back, and with 299 yards or better in 3 of his L4 games, I'd say the young Pats secondary is in for trouble tonight. Based on everthing we've talked about, there's no question I'm taking the Jets plus the points (remember to buy the 1/2 point insurance as instructed above) over the Patriots Monday.
