SPORTS ADVISORS
Minnesota (11-3, 8-5-1 ATS) at Chicago (5-9, 4-10 ATS)
The Vikings head to Soldier Field in Chicago looking to lock up the second seed in the NFC playoffs and remain in contention for the No. 1 seed with a victory over the division rival Bears.
Minnesota has dropped two of its last three games (SU and ATS), including last Sunday night’s 26-7 loss at Carolina as a nine-point road favorite. The Vikings, who have lost two in a row and three of their last four on the highway (SU and ATS), have struggled offensively the last three weeks, managing just 18 points and 291.3 total yards per game – far off their season-long averages of 28.3 points and 368.9 yards per game.
Chicago was crushed in Baltimore 31-7 last Sunday, never threatening to cover as a 10½-point underdog. Since a 3-1 SU and ATS start, the Bears have lost two in a row and eight of 10, and they’re just 1-9 ATS during this stretch, including seven straight non-covers coming into this contest. Chicago’s offense has managed just 12.7 points and 240.7 yards per game the last three weeks. Additionally, the Bears have the NFL’s third-worst rushing attack, managing just 88.3 yards per game on the ground, while QB Jay Cutler has offset 19 TD passes with a league-leading 25 interceptions.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 13 of Chicago’s 14 games this year and is 11-2-1 ATS in Minnesota’s 14 contests (7-0-1 ATS last eight). Also, the favorite is 9-3 ATS in the Bears’ last 12 outings and is 8-5-1 ATS in all 14 Vikings games.
Minnesota scored a 36-10 blowout home win over the Bears on Nov. 29, easily cashing as a 10-point favorite. The Vikings have won four of the last five matchups in this rivalry (3-2 ATS) but lost in the Windy City last season 48-41 as three-point underdogs. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series meetings, with the Bears holding a 5-1 ATS edge in the past six clashes in Chicago.
The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS in their last five Week 16 games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 December contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 4-0-1 against division rivals, 7-1 after a straight-up loss and 4-1-1 against teams with losing records. There is nothing positive about the Bears’ ATS streaks, as they’re in pointspread slumps of 0-7 overall, 0-4 at home, 6-18-2 against winning teams, 3-12-1 against NFC squads, 1-7 against division rivals, 0-5-1 in December and 1-11 as an underdogs.
Minnesota is on “under” runs of 6-0 overall (all as a favorite), 5-0 in December, 8-2-1 as a road favorite and 7-3 on the road against teams with losing records. Chicago also is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 4-1 at home, 56-26-2 as an underdog, 5-0 against NFC teams, 10-1 after a straight-up loss and 12-2 after a non-cover. In this series, the “over” is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups.
Finally, six of the last seven Monday Night Football contests have stayed under the total, following a 19-5-1 “over” stretch on Mondays.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
(at Shreveport, La.)
Texas A&M (6-6, 6-5-1 ATS) vs. Georgia (7-5, 4-7 ATS)
The Bulldogs, who were ranked 13th in the AP preseason poll but slid rapidly from there in the rugged Southeastern Conference, make their 13th consecutive bowl appearance when they take on Texas A&M at Independence Stadium.
Georgia got bounced at Oklahoma State 24-10 in its season opener, rebounded to win three in a row, then muddled through the rest of the season with a 4-4 SU mark (3-4 ATS). The Bulldogs managed to win three of their last four games (2-1 ATS in lined games) to get bowl-eligible for the 13th year in a row. The Dawgs capped the regular season in style, upsetting instate rival Georgia Tech 30-24 as a 9½-point road underdog on Nov. 28.
The Aggies also never really got a foothold on their season in the Big 12, winning their first three games, then losing three in row before finishing the year on a 1-3 SU skid (2-2 ATS). That said, Texas A&M battled hard against archrival and then-third-ranked Texas in the Nov. 26 regular-season finale before succumbing 49-39 but easily cashing as an overwhelming 20-point home ‘dog. That gave A&M a 4-2 ATS mark over its last six games.
These schools have met five times previously, but only twice since 1954, with Georgia most recently rolling 42-0 in 1980.
The Bulldogs played in New Year’s Day bowl games six of the past seven years, including last year when they dropped Michigan State 24-12 as a nine-point chalk in the Capital One Bow. That made Georgia 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 bowl games. Meanwhile, the Aggies’ most recent bowl appearance came two years ago when they lost to Penn State 24-17 as a five-point pup in the Alamo Bowl. Texas A&M is just 1-5 ATS in bowl games this decade.
Georgia scored 27 points or more in five of their last six games, averaging 29.5 points per game during this stretch. For the season, it put up 27.7 points and 361.8 total yards per game, including 157.1 ypg on the ground, mostly behind a three-headed RB attack of Washaun Ealey, Caleb King and Richard Samuel, who combined for 1,568 yards. The Bulldogs’ D surrendered 26.4 points and 328.4 yards per contest.
Texas A&M sports one of the nation’s most prolific offenses, rolling up 33.9 points and 465.3 yards per game, with the latter figure ranking fifth nationally. The Aggies were balanced with 274.9 passing ypg and 190.4 rushing ypg. QB Jerrod Johnson was the catalyst, throwing for 3,217 yards with 28 TDs against just six INTs, and he also ran for 455 yards and eight scores. However, the Aggies’ defense ranked among the worst in the nation, giving up 431.3 ypg (107th) and 32.7 ppg (104th).
In addition to its 11-4 ATS run in bowl games, Georgia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on neutral fields, but otherwise the Dawgs carry negative ATS streaks of 6-14 overall, 3-11 as a chalk, 0-5-1 after a spread-cover and 1-4 after a SU win. Meanwhile, the Aggies 1-5 ATS bowl slide is compounded by pointspread slumps of 0-5 at neutral sites, 0-4 as an underdog, 3-7 outside the Big 12, 0-3-1 against the SEC and 1-4 in December.
The over is 8-3 in Georgia’s last 11 bowl starts and 6-2 in its last eight December outings, but the under for the Dawgs is on rolls of 3-0 in non-conference action and 4-0 against the Big 12. The under is 5-2 in A&M’s last seven bowl games, but the Aggies are otherwise on a bundle of “over” runs, including 6-2 overall, 8-2 after a SU loss, 11-5-1 in non-conference play, 34-16-2 as a pup and 39-19-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GEORGIA and OVER
NBA
L.A. Lakers (24-5, 13-16 ATS) at Phoenix (19=12, 17-14 ATS)
The Lakers will try to continue their dominance over the Suns when they visit the US Airways Center for a Pacific Division showdown.
Los Angeles rebounded from its 102-87 Christmas Day home loss to the Cavaliers with Saturday’s 112-103 overtime victory in Sacramento on Saturday, cashing as a six-point road chalk. The Lakers have won six of their last seven games (3-4 ATS) and 17 of their last 19 (10-9 ATS), and they’ve also won five straight on the road (3-2 ATS).
Phoenix has lost three of its last four (SU and ATS) and nine of its last 14 (6-8 ATS), including Saturday’s 132-127 defeat at Golden State as a three-point road favorite. After opening the season with 10 consecutive home wins, the Suns have lost two of their last three SU and ATS at US Airways Center, but the one victory came on Friday against the Clippers, a 124-93 blowout as a 10-point favorite. The Suns average a whopping 115.2 points a game at home, while shooting 51.3 percent from the floor.
The SU winner is 17-3 ATS in Phoenix’s last 20 games (7-0 ATS last seven).
Los Angeles has already defeated Phoenix twice this season (2-0 ATS), with both wins coming at home, and the Lakers are 6-1 in the last seven meetings (5-2 ATS) and 8-2 in the last 10 (7-3 ATS). While the home team has won five in a row in this rivalry and cashed in each of the last four meetings, L.A. has managed to cover in four of its last five trips to the desert.
The Lakers come into this one having cashed in four straight games against Pacific Division rivals, but they’re on ATS slides of 0-4 on Monday, 1-4 after getting a day off and 2-5 after a straight-up win. Phoenix is just 2-4 ATS in its last six overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five against divisional rivals, but is otherwise on positive pointspread streaks of 15-7 at home, 13-5 after a non-cover and 5-1 after a straight-up loss.
The Lakers are on several “under” runs, including 8-3 overall, 17-8 on Mondays, 11-4-1 after a spread-cover and 7-2 after a straight-up win. The Suns have followed a 13-3-2 “under” run by topping the total in their last three overall, and the over has hit in their last five against Western Conference teams. However, Phoenix is still carrying “under” streaks of 11-3-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 on Mondays and 7-3-1 after a day off. Finally, the “over” has been the play in six of the last 10 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
