Service Plays Monday 12/28/09

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NFL DUNKEL

MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

Game 131-132: Minnesota at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 140.093; Chicago 127.060
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 13; 43
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 7; 41
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-7); Over

 

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NFL WRITE-UP

Week 16 NFL games

Monday, December 28

Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)-- Minnesota lost last two road games by 13-19 points (three TDs on last 23 road drives); they've allowed 27.3 ppg their last four road games (1-3). Vikings waxed Chicago 36-10 four weeks ago (-10.5), outrushing Bears 159-43, converting 12-18 on 3rd down (Favre was 32-48/378 passing). Cutler has been awful at night, Bears have been terrible since its bye, losing eight of last ten games (0-7 vs spread last seven games)- they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog this year, losing home games by 20-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in NFC North games, 3-0 on road. Last six tilts for both teams stayed under the total.

 

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Pointwise Phone Service

1* CHICAGO

 

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Ace-Ace

$300.00 Take #131 Minnesota (-7) over Chicago (8:30 p.m., Monday, Dec. 28)
The Bears are really bad right now and have lost seven straight games ATS. Minnesota is looking to rebound from an embarrassing performance and they still need a win to lock up the No. 2 seed and a first round bye. They will pour it on their rivals.

 

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Inside Corner NFL

4 units Minnesota Vikings/Chicago Bears UNDER 41

 

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Norm Hitzges

Single Play

Chicago +7 vs Minnesota

 

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FleaPicker

CHICAGO +7

 

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Randall the Handle

Vikings @ Bears

Brett Favre’s diva ways resurfacing but may not matter against this woeful opponent. Bears have tossed in the towel and have covered just one game since mid-October. Minnesota can’t let up with Eagles chasing them for #2 spot. TAKING: Minnesota –7

 

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THE EDGE

NFL
3* Chicago
3* Over Chicago

 

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL

3* - Minnesota

 

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Executive

250 Texas A&M

 

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Docs Sports

5 Unit Play. #46 Take Chicago +7 over Minnesota (Monday 8:30 pm NBC) Chicago 24, Minnesota 20.

 

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Florida Outlaw

Minnesota

 

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Dr Bob OPINION/ LEAN

Minnesota (-7.0) 25 CHICAGO 18
Over/Under Total: 41.0
05:35 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-28 I went against Minnesota last week with a Best Bet on Carolina +9, who thumped the Vikes 26-7, but Teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 84-39-4 ATS the next week since 2001 and Minnesota should bounce back tonight with a decent effort as they try to garner a first round bye.

 

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SportsInsights

NFL Week 16 – Games to Watch

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Our old favorite -- reverse line movement -- is pointing towards the Chicago Bears in this match-up. The line opened at Chicago +7.5 but quickly moved to Chicago +7 -- even with 80% of the bets taking the Vikings. Our faithful readers know that we like this kind of reverse line movement because it means that "big money" is more than counter-balancing the barrage of Public Bets -- that are normally on the favorite. We'll ride the "big money" coattails and "fade the Public."

In addition to "reading the tape" of the NFL point spread marketplace, there is value in betting home dogs during the end of the Regular Season. Finally, this is a good old-fashioned Divisional rivalry -- so the Bears will definitely be a "live" home dog. Being under the spotlight of Monday Night Football should also get the Bears up for this game. Take the 7 points and a Bears team that should certainly be motivated for this game.

Chicago Bears +7

 

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Moneymaker

nfl side plays

chicago (+8.5 up)


nfl over/under plays

over min - chi

 

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JB's Computer Picks

Minnesota Vikings -7

 

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GOLD SHEET

NFL MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

*Minnesota 26 - CHICAGO 13—Vikes had one of their more “complete”
victories of the season in the first meeting, with 159 YR, 537 total yards, 392 YP & 3 TDs by Brett Favre, 40:55 of possession, and 4 sacks and 3 takeaways by the defense. That, of course, was indoors. After last week’s downer in Carolina, Favre will be eager to erase some doubts in another outdoor game in Chicago, where he has usually excelled in the past. The revenge-minded Bears will be in a nasty mood. But rely on Jay Cutler (19 TDs, 25 ints.) and Chicago (7 straight spread losses; 9 of 10) at your own risk.

NBA MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

CHARLOTTE 95 - Milwaukee 91—09-MIL -3' 95-88 (182); 08-Mil +2' 79-74 (180), MIL -4 101-96 (186), MIL -6' 103-75 (183), CHA -1' 102-92 (181)

Oklahoma City 96 - NEW JERSEY 85—08-NJ -6' 103-99 (OT-202), OK -1' 94- 85 (203)

***MEMPHIS 116 - Washington 100—Memphis 7-2 vs. the number last 9 at the FedEx Forum through Dec. 19, with 5 double-digit wins in that run. Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol & O.J. Mayo all scoring at least 20 ppg in December for HC Lionel Hollins’ Grizzlies. Washington 1-7 SU last 8 on the road thru Dec. 22, and Wizards score just 96 ppg as a visitor. 08-Mem +5 113-97 (192), MEM -2' 112-107 (202) TV—NBA NETWORK

LA Lakers 108 - PHOENIX 100—09-LA -7' 121-102 (221), LA -9' 108-88 (221); 08-La -5 105-92 (207), LA -12' 115-110 (216), LA -11 132-106 (233), PHO +5' 118-111 (237)

SACRAMENTO 106 - Denver 100—Kings tough to beat at Arco Arena. 08- Den -5 118-85 (212), DEN -9' 118-99 (219), SAC +9 114-106 (214), DEN -17 118-98 (223)

PORTLAND 98 - Philadelphia 96—08-PHI +2 100-79 (194), Phi +8 114-108 (OT-191)
Boston 108 - GOLDEN ST. 107—Celtics played last night & are 2-6 laying more than 6 on the road. 09-BO -16' 109-95 (211); 08-BO -12' 119-111 (205), GS +10' 99-89 (211)

NCAAB MONDAY, DECEMBER 28

PITTSBURGH over DePaul by 12 to 15—08-Pitt -16 92-69, PITT -25' 80-61 TV—ESPNU
RICHMOND over NC Wilmington by 13 to 17—08-Rich -7' 76-69
TEMPLE over Bowling Green by 15 to 18—(at McGonigle Hall) 08-DNP
TROY over Marshall by 2 to 4—08-DNP
NORTH CAROLINA over Rutgers by 24 to 28—08-UNC -32' 97-75 TV—ESPN2
ARIZONA over Byu by 2 to 4—08-DNP
SAN JOSE ST. over UC Irvine by 10 to 13—08-DNP
FRESNO ST. over Colorado St. by 8 to 11—08-DNP
***NEVADA 80 - Portland 66—Apparently, Portland wasn’t quite ready for prime time, as Pilots have dropped 4 of 5 (thru Dec. 21) since entering the rankings for the first time in 50 years in late November. Lack of consistent frontcourt scoring options and overreliance on long-range shooting have bitten Portland in recent slump. Meanwhile, Nevada gaining some momentum after going through meatgrinder in rugged early-season slate. And matchups don’t look bad for Wolf Pack, as 6-9 Babbitt (18.1 ppg) should pose problems for slower Pilot frontline, while bigger Nevada Gs can find looks vs. smaller Portland counterparts. 08-PORT -3 63-61

NCAAF

*Georgia 37 - Texas A&M 36—In what shapes up as a shootout, prefer to take a TD with an A&M bunch clearly possessing the firepower to trade all the way with UGA, a team sans much KO punch, winning by 7 pts. or fewer in 4 of 6 victories vs. FBS squads TY. Aggies 2nd-year mentor Mike Sherman played a school-record 18 freshmen in ‘09 as he continued to indoctrinate his own recruits as soon as possible. And it’s fair to say the Bulldogs (ranked 13th in AP preseason polls), who had much loftier goals and are accustomed to more prestigious New Year’s Day bowls, might not be as fired-up as the young, enthusiastic Aggie contingent calling this a “springboard game” for the 2010 campaign. “It’s definitely a bummer, I know for a fact nobody wants to be away from their family on Christmas,” bemoans Georgia team leader LB Rennie Curran.
The high-octane, balanced A&M attack (34 ppg, 24 rush TDs, 28 pass) is smoothly directed by dual-threat, 6-5 jr. QB Jerrod Johnson (school-record 3217 YP & 28 TDP, just 6 ints.; 455 YR), who steadily improved his decision-making and accuracy. “I’ve never been around a player who has progressed like he has. He showed tenacity vs. Texas. He wanted the ball in his hands.” says HC Sherman. And with the dynamic RB duo of freshman Christine Michael (767 YR) & soph Cyrus Gray (752 YR) commanding every-down respect, and sure- handed 6-4 WR Jeff Fuller (34 catches; missed most or all of 6 games due to knee) back to full strength, Aggies should light scoreboard vs. the penetrable Dawg defense (yielded 34 pts.-or-more 5 times; 90th in passing “D”) adjusting to DL Coach Rodney Garner, who is serving as the interim d.c. after the season-ending firing of Willie Martinez and two other defensive assistants.
The Georgia attack, which became more ground-oriented down the stretch with the emergence of frosh RB Washaun Ealey (183 YR vs. Georgia Tech) coupled with shoulder injury of big-play WR A.J. Green (missed last 21⁄2 games; expected back), will do business vs. immature A&M defense (431 ypg, 33 ppg). But if Aggies sackmeister “Jack” DE Von Miller (nation-leading 17 sacks) can keep Dawgs’ inconsistent QB Joe Cox (56%, 22 TDs, 14 ints.) from getting too comfy, Mark Richt’s mistake-prone crew (ghastly 27 giveaways) is in for 60- minute scoring fest here. Endorse the “over” in a game where the punters might hardly work.

 

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killersports

SBB’s MNF Total of the Year

5-STAR Chicago and MINNESOTA Under 41 –

This is SBB’s first 5-STAR newsletter total of the year (its one 5-STAR side was a nice winner with Green Bay in week three) and it comes off the heels of its 5-STAR Total of the Year winner last week with Baltimore and Chicago Under.
It’s pretty clear at this point that Chicago has quit on their coach and mailed in the season. Against a motivated and good defense, who was embarrassed last week against Carolina on national TV, we just don’t see the Bears scoring much.
Chicago lost last week to Baltimore, 31-7, and are 7 point under- dogs in this one. The Bears are 0-11 OU (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2002 as a 7+ dog with a total of 38 or more after a straight up loss (team=Bears and total>38 and 7<=line and p:L and 20021103<=date)
In that game, the Bears committed six turnovers while only forcing one. Chicago is 0-22 OU (-9.3 ppg) since November 07, 1993 when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road when the teams combined for more than nine points (team=Bears and p:AL and 2<=p:turnover margin and points+pooints>9 and NB and 19931107<=date).
Chicago has not been able to run the ball all season, and facing one of the stingiest run defense in the league which has allowed only 3.94 yards per carry. The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.8 ppg) since Octo- ber 24, 1999 as a 6.5+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 4 yards per carry season-to-date (team=Bears and 6.5<=line and Average(1.*rushing yards@o:team and season)/Average(rushes@o:team and season)<4 and 19991024<=date).
Chicago has been quick to abandon the run this year, 31st in the league in carries with only 22.7 a game. The Vikings are 0-10 OU (-7.8 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their op- ponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25 (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and Average(o:rushes@o:team and season)<25 and 20030914<=date).
Minnesota is still 11-3 despite recent struggles and should be able to control Chicago in this one. The Vikings are 0-14 OU (-7.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with fewer wins when not coming off a Monday night game (team=Vikings and line<=-7 and p:day!=Monday and wins>o:wins and 20030914<=date).
The shine has certainly come off the Vikings offense in the last couple weeks. The Bears can offer a bit of a resurgence here for that Minnesota offense, but in the cold on Monday night, we wouldn’t look for them to be explosive.
SBB PREDICTION: Minnesota 23, CHICAGO 10