Scott Rickenbach
Daytime Dominator Monday - Rickenbach CFB 8* OVER the total in Boston College Eagles vs Maryland Terrapins in the Quick Lane Bowl @ Ford Field in Detroit, MI @ 2:30 ET Monday - This is a contrarian play because certainly this match-up features two of the weaker offenses to be involved this bowl season. The key to this contrarian play actually makes perfect sense. The strength of the Terrapins offense is running the ball but Boston College is one of the best defenses in the nation against the run. As for the Eagles offense, they also much prefer running the ball to throwing it but they haven't had great success in doing so as they average only 146.8 rushing yards per game. What is going to happen as a result of the above is that both teams, especially with this game being an indoor game on the "fast track" turf of Ford Field, are going to have to turn to their aerial attacks to try and move the ball down the field in this one. Keep in mind, as strong as the BC run defense is, they have struggled against the pass at times. In 6 games this season they allowed between 236 and 434 passing yards per game. The average they gave up through the air in those games was 301.5 yards per game. As you can see, Boston College can be thrown on. As for Maryland, the Terps did allow 260 points in their 6 defeats this season for an average of 43.3 points allowed per game. This is game is priced right around a "pick'em" so it's projected that it could go either way in terms of the winner here. But I feel the value here is with the total as both teams will look to the aerial attack to quickly and more efficiently attack the defenses they are facing in this one. The over is 4-1 the past three seasons combined when the Terrapins are playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. The over is 4-1 the past three seasons combined when the Eagles are off of a win against a conference rival. Both these teams wrapped up their seasons with a win in their final game to secure a 6th win and a bowl spot and they bring positive momentum into this one which will prove to be a higher-scoring affair than one would expect for this match-up at first glance. 8* OVER the total in the Quick Lane Bowl Monday
Monday Top Bowl Play - Rickenbach 10* Top Play N.C. State Wolfpack (-) vs Vanderbilt Commodores in the Independence Bowl @ Independence Stadium in Shreveport, LA @ 5 ET Monday - Vandy might fall into that category of "just happy to be here" considering this is their first bowl in 3 years. As for NC State, they are looking to atone for last year's 51-28 Belk Bowl loss to Mississippi State. The Wolfpack did face a tougher schedule than Vanderbilt this season and NC State has outperformed the Commodores even though both teams enter this game at 6-6. Vandy has one of the weaker offenses in the nation and getting hot in their last 2 games of the season doesn't erase the fact that the Commodores were held to 17 points or less in 7 of their first 10 games this season. Also, Vanderbilt is going up against a solid NC State defense that is very strong against the run. The Wolfpack held 9 of their 12 opponents to 24 points or less this season. On offense, though their point totals weren't that impressive as the season wore on, NC State did averaged 282 passing yards per game in their 11 games not played in a hurricane. The reason I say that is the 41 passing yards against Notre Dame in the game played during Hurricane Matthew certainly should be taken out of the equation when evaluating the strength of this NC State offense. The aerial attack as a strength is very significant here because the Commodores weakness on defense is against the pass. Vandy gives up a lot of yard through the air and they don't get many sacks. NC State's defense more than doubled Vanderbilt's sack total for the year. Vandy is on a 4-7 ATS run in non-conference games the past three seasons and also is 1-3 ATS when off of a win against a conference rival. NC State is 12-2 SU (and 10-4 ATS) in non-conference games and also the Wolfpack produced a 5-1 ATS mark when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games and they are 8-1 ATS in games played on turf. 10* Top Play NC STATE Monday
Primetime Punisher Monday - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Detroit Lions (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 8:30 ET Monday - Certainly the Cowboys are "saying the right things" in terms of wanting to keep playing their starters and keep the momentum going even though they've now locked up the #1 seed in the NFC. However, I just don't see Dallas as being able to truly bring forth the high level of intensity necessary to knock off the Lions in convincing fashion on Monday Night Football. Detroit needs this win and will be the hungrier team. Also, the injuries to quarterbacks Derek Carr and Marcus Mariota Saturday have to heavily weigh on the minds of the Cowboys here. It is now that fine line between maintaining momentum but trying not to get anyone hurt that is in effect for Dallas here. The key value is not only in that plus the hunger of the Lions here, but also the fact that the Cowboys truly haven't been playing all that dominant of late. Dallas has failed to cover 4 straight games and their weakness is their pass defense while the strength of the Lions offense is their aerial attack. Detroit is on a 5-1 SU run and 4-2 ATS run and they did outgain their opponent in each of the two ATS losses but the problem was turnovers as they lost the TO battle 2-0 in each of those games. The Cowboys come into this game with 6 turnovers in their last 3 games and only twice in their last eight games have they won by a margin of more than 6 points. Detroit is 7-3 ATS in games played on turf, 3-0 ATS in Monday night football, and the Lions are 5-1 ATS versus the NFC East. The Cowboys are 7-12 ATS their last 19 games against teams with a winning record and also 10-21 ATS their last 31 games played on turf. The Lions were up 17-7 at halftime in a playoff game in January of 2015 in the most recent game between these teams. That match-up ended up being a 24-20 win for the Cowboys here in Dallas and the Lions have their sights set on payback in this one. 10* DETROIT LIONS Monday