Most people who visit these forums and gamble do not have fundamental understanding of central limit theorem, probability, statistics etc. They say 'oh XXX is 12-4 in last 16, as if that implies his next pick(s) will be higher than 52.38% chance of winning. BY DEFINITION if there are dozens/hundreds of cappers, a good 5-10 of them will ALWAYS be on a hot streak - most will be 50/50 and some will be on cold streak. Our brains latch on to the 'salience' (or specialness) of the streaking, good recent records as indication of skill, when in 99% of cases it is randomness. I think it EXTREMELY that any capper selling his picks is over 57% over long run. RAS is the ONE exception, and even that # is suspect as most bettors dont get the same line he does. Its all a very interesting glimpse into the human brain/belief system. Most people pay for the dopamine, not the win.
Very well put.
In the same manner of thinking, Northcoast is able to brag most of the time simplye because they have so many different types of serrvices, Late Phones, newsletters, etc. to choose from when recapping their picks.
In short, they have so many different combinations to choose from, the laws of statistics and probably dictate that on a given week there will be something which they can brag about which is somewhat over the 52.38% break even point.
It is also no different than if say 20 people flip a coin 20 times.there will be a few who go 18-2, 15-5, 13-7 heads(with heads being designated a win) amd some who go 2-18, etc. and lose.
If the winning folks keep flipping sets of 20, they will have streaks where they go 2-18, etc. and the losing folks will go 18-2, etc.
The overall point as it relates to cappers is that most of them will revert back to no better than 50% over time, meaning that they will not exceed the 52.38% brek even point and that most folks who follow these guys will lose and will lose even more when you factor in the cost.
