DAVE MALINSKY
SPORT: College Basketball Picks
PICK: Cleveland State
4* #519 CLEVELAND STATE over SYRACUSE
All is not well at Syracuse right now. Yes, the Orange are a perfect 9-0, but it comes in a way that does a better job of fooling the markets into setting a high line than it does tell us that anything special is happening in upstate New York. Those tourney wins over Kansas and Florida three weeks ago? They mean less as we see subsequent showings from the Gators and Jayhawks, and they also came in games in which Jim Boeheim’s squad was able to get out and run, which is something that they do well. In fact, it may be all that they genuinely do well right now.
Syracuse does not have a great inside game, does not have much depth, and does not play the 2-3 zone anywhere near the level of efficiency we are accustomed to seeing. As such the Orange are vulnerable when the tempo is going to be slowed down, like tonight, and note that on this court teams playing at a moderate pace like rebuilding Virginia, and Cornell playing without key starters Louis Dale and Adam Gore, led Syracuse well into the second half. The Orange continue to be burdened by the Eric Devendorf distractions, with his career literally on the line pending a review of his suspension by the University judicial Board, and there is no reason to fear a dynamic performance tonight – they have to come right back to face Canisius on Wednesday, before heading to Memphis for Saturday’s showdown. And as for that rout of Long Beach State two days ago, note that it told us more about the fatigue for the visitors than anything special from the Orange – the 49ers did not have their legs, having traveled from a Thursday loss at Weber State, and shot an absurd 5-36 from 3-point range, having had no time to prepare for that zone defense.
Cleveland State brings a much different level of talent, and focus, tonight. Gary Waters got his Vikings to the N.I.T. LY and has enough talent for a run to the Big Dance this season, which means that this game becomes a major one from an at-large standpoint. He not only knows how to deal with the Boeheim zones (he went 5-3 ATS head-to-head in five seasons as the Rutgers coach), but has a tough veteran cast to get it done. Senior point guard Cedric Jackson is no stranger to a Big East environment, having started 35 games over two seasons with St. John’s before transferring, and 6-5/240 J’Nathan Bullock plays to his name up front, while 6-9/240 Chris Moore is also not going to get pushed around. This is a team that plays tenacious defense, holding both West Virginia and Butler to their season-lows in scoring in showdown games (those two shot a combined 35-106 from the field), and they will slow this into the kind of grinder game that the Orange do not like to play.