THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Cleveland (4-9, 7-6 ATS) at Philadelphia (7-5-1, 8-5 ATS)
The Eagles will try to keep their playoff hopes alive when they go for their third straight victory as they host the reeling Browns at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
Brian Westbrook carried the load for Philadelphia in last weekend’s 20-14 upset victory at the Giants as 6½-point ‘dogs. At New York, Westbrook rushed for 131 yards and a touchdown and had 72 receiving yards and another score, and he’s got six touchdowns and 241 rushing yards over the last two weeks. Philadelphia has outscored the opposition 68-34 in back-to-back wins over the Giants and Cardinals, outgaining those two foes by 297 total yards.
Cleveland hasn’t been able to produce anything offensively the last three weeks, scoring a total of 21 points (seven field goals) and averaging 203.7 yards per game (126.7 passing, 77 rushing). In last week’s 28-9 loss at Tennessee as a 14-point underdog, the Browns mustered just 35 rushing yards and three field goals, while the defense gave up 490 total yards (235 rushing). Also, third-string QB Ken Dorsey – filling in for both Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, both of whom are out for the season – completed 22 of 43 passes for 150 yards and an interception.
Overall, the Browns have lost five of their last six (1-4-1 ATS), but despite last week’s result in Tennessee, they have been a solid bet on the highway, going 4-1 ATS in their last five. They’re also 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog and 16-11 ATS all-time on Monday nights (16-12), including 2-0 SU and ATS this season on Mondays, with upset wins at Buffalo (29-27) and at home against the then-undefeated Giants (35-14).
Philadelphia is on ATS runs of 7-3 after a straight-up win, 5-1 in Week 15 contests, 4-1 on Mondays and 5-2 after a spread cover. In their history, the Eagles are 24-22 SU (28-18 ATS) under the Monday spotlight, including a 41-37 loss at Dallas as a 6½-point road underdog back in Week 2.
These teams haven’t met since 2004, when the Eagles got a 34-31 overtime victory in Cleveland but failed to cover as 7½-point favorites.
For Cleveland, the under is on runs of 13-6 overall, 12-5 when playing on grass, 6-2 following an ATS loss and 7-1 in December. Philadelphia is on “under” streaks of 6-2 at home, 39-15-4 as a favorite, 23-7-3 as a home chalk, 13-6-2 on Mondays and 4-1 in December.
Conversely, the over is 12-3 in Monday night games this season and 18-5 in non-Sunday NFL games this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
NBA
Utah (15-10, 13-12 ATS) at Boston (22-2, 14-10 ATS)
The Celtics, who are off the best start in the franchise’s storied history, shoot for their 15th straight victory when they host the Jazz inside TD Banknorth Garden.
Boston is coming off Friday’s 94-82 rout of New Orleans as a seven-point home chalk, holding the Hornets to 35.4 percent shooting. It’s been all about defense this season for the Celtics, who allow just 90.5 points per game, which ranks second in the NBA, while holding opponents to a league-low 41.3 percent shooting. Doc Rivers’ squad has gotten the cash in five of its last six, including four straight at home after starting the season 4-6 ATS at the Garden.
Utah fell at home to the Magic on Saturday 103-94 as a 7½-point favorite and Jerry Sloan’s squad has split its last eight games both SU and ATS. Tonight the Jazz tip off a five-game Eastern Conference road trip, and they’re just 5-6 SU and ATS on the highway this season. The SU winner is 18-2 ATS in Utah’s last 20 contests.
These squads split their two games last season, with the road team winning each time, including Utah’s 110-92 blowout of the Celtics in Boston in March, upsetting the future NBA champs as an eight-point underdog. The visitor has won four of the last five meetings SU, and Boston has gotten the cash six of the last 10. Finally, the straight-up winner is 10-0 ATS in the last 10 series clashes.
The Jazz are on ATS runs of 6-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 when getting a day off, 12-1 on Mondays, 5-2 as an underdog and 26-12-1 against teams with a winning record. Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five Monday games, but otherwise this team is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 35-16 against Western Conference teams, 5-1 on two days of rest and 35-16-1 after a spread-cover.
For Utah, the under is 7-1 in its last eight overall and 5-0 in its last five against the Eastern Conference, but otherwise the team is on over streaks of 5-2 on the road and 4-0 as an underdog (all on the road). For the Celtics, the over is 6-1 in their last seven when getting two days of rest, but the under is on streaks of 20-8 in Monday contests, 5-1 against the Western Conference and 6-0 against the Northwest Division. Lastly, in this rivalry, the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings overall, including 6-2 in the last eight in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Denver (16-7, 14-8-1 ATS) at Dallas (13-9, 9-13 ATS)
The Nuggets, who are off to their best start in 32 seasons, travel to the American Airlines Center in Dallas to face the Mavericks, who have won six of their last seven but continue to struggle against the number.
Denver is 15-4 since the trade of Allen Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey Billups, and the Nuggets arrive in Dallas winners of three straight, including Saturday’s 123-105 victory over Golden State, cashing as a hefty 15-point home chalk. Carmelo Anthony has stepped up his game during the three-game winning streak, averaging 29.3 points and making 54.1 percent of his shots.
Dallas is wrapping up a seven-game homestand that has seen the Mavs go 5-1 SU, but just 1-5 ATS to this point, with the only outright loss being a 133-126 double-overtime defeat to the Spurs. On Saturday, Dallas edged Oklahoma City 103-99 but came nowhere near covering the 13-point spread, dropping to just 2-10 ATS in front of the home fans this season.
The host has won eight of the last 10 battles between these two and is 8-3 ATS in the last 11, but Denver has cashed in five straight overall, including a 108-105 home victory back on Nov. 7 in a pick-em contest. However, the Nuggets are just 3-21 ATS in their last 24 visits to Dallas.
George Karl’s Nuggets are on ATS slides of 2-6 following a spread-cover and 3-7 on Mondays, but they have gone 10-3 ATS in their last 13 against the Southwest Division and 4-1 ATS in their last five after getting a day off. Meanwhile, it’s nothing but negative ATS trends for the Mavericks, including 0-4 overall, 5-17 at home dating to last season, 1-5 as a home favorite, 3-7 following a non-cover, 1-8 against the Northwest Division and 0-4 overall.
Denver has stayed under the total in seven of its last 10 as an underdog, but otherwise the Nuggets are on “over” streaks of 8-2 overall, 6-1 after a straight-up win, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a day off. Dallas is on “under” runs of 52-23 against Northwest Division teams, 35-17-1 after a day off, 43-21-2 as a favorite and 4-1 as a home favorite. Finally, the under is 6-2 in the last eight Nuggets-Mavs matchups in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER