Dr. Bob
HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.
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HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.
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westcoastsportspicks
NBA 12/1/2008
7:00:00 PM Charlotte -3.5
7:30:00 PM Orlando +8.5
NCAA Basketball
7:00:00 PM Virginia Tech -2.5
7:00:00 PM Arkansas State +7.5
7:00:00 PM Drexel -2.5
9:00:00 PM Northwestern -13
10:05:00 PM Sacramento State Pick
10:30:00 PM San Francisco +19
They are giving away free service plays for a week.
NBA 12/1/2008
7:00:00 PM Charlotte -3.5
7:30:00 PM Orlando +8.5
NCAA Basketball
7:00:00 PM Virginia Tech -2.5
7:00:00 PM Arkansas State +7.5
7:00:00 PM Drexel -2.5
9:00:00 PM Northwestern -13
10:05:00 PM Sacramento State Pick
10:30:00 PM San Francisco +19
They are giving away free service plays for a week.
wunderdog
Game: Jacksonville at Houston (Monday 12/01 8:30 PM Eastern)
Tonight the Houston Texans host a Monday Night Football game for the first time since 1994. Both of these teams have struggled to identical 4-7 records, and their playoff fate has for all intents and purposes been sealed - neither will be playing in January. Both of these teams have average offenses. Jacksonville's defense is solid while Houston's is not. The Texans have struggled with Sage Rosenfels under center. He has already thrown nine interceptions and fumbled four times. Last week they turned to the run, pounding the ball 36 times on the ground and it resulted in a win. So Steve Slayton and Ahman Green should get a lot of work in this one against a Jags defense that ranks 18th against the run. The Jaguars counter with a tandem of running backs that should find some room on the 23th ranked rushing offense of the Texans. The Jags are a dismal 1-7 ATS this season when playing on grass. But, Houston has gone just 4-7 ATS overall this year. Our computer matchup on this game predicts a score of 22.6 to 26.4.
Game: Jacksonville at Houston (Monday 12/01 8:30 PM Eastern)
Tonight the Houston Texans host a Monday Night Football game for the first time since 1994. Both of these teams have struggled to identical 4-7 records, and their playoff fate has for all intents and purposes been sealed - neither will be playing in January. Both of these teams have average offenses. Jacksonville's defense is solid while Houston's is not. The Texans have struggled with Sage Rosenfels under center. He has already thrown nine interceptions and fumbled four times. Last week they turned to the run, pounding the ball 36 times on the ground and it resulted in a win. So Steve Slayton and Ahman Green should get a lot of work in this one against a Jags defense that ranks 18th against the run. The Jaguars counter with a tandem of running backs that should find some room on the 23th ranked rushing offense of the Texans. The Jags are a dismal 1-7 ATS this season when playing on grass. But, Houston has gone just 4-7 ATS overall this year. Our computer matchup on this game predicts a score of 22.6 to 26.4.
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Jacksonville (4-7, 3-8 ATS) at Houston (4-7 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars visit Reliant Stadium in Houston to take on the Texans as both teams resume disappointing seasons.
Jacksonville has lost four of its last five games, including a 30-12 home loss to the Vikings last week as a one-point favorite. The Jags had five turnovers against the Vikings and allowed four sacks in their fourth straight home setback. On the bright side, Jack Del Rio’s team has been solid on the road lately, going 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four.
Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-6 road win in Cleveland last Sunday, cashing as a three-point road pup. Backup QB Sage Rosenfels threw for 275 yards and a TD but was picked twice in the second half to run his total to eight in his four starts for injured QB Matt Schaub.
The Texans have gone 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times the Jags have come calling in Houston, including a 42-28 win in 2007 as seven-point favorites. Earlier this season, the Jaguars got a 30-27 OT win but failed to cash as 6½-point favorites. The ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two, and Houston has gotten the cash in four of the last five overall. Finally, the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series battles.
Tonight marks Houston’s first-ever appearance in the Monday night spotlight, while the Jags are 7-4 SU (6-5 ATS) on Mondays in their franchise history.
Jacksonville is on ATS slides of 1-10 on grass, 1-5 against AFC competition and 1-4 against AFC South rivals, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 in December and 11-1 in Week 13 games. Houston is 1-4 ATS at home this year, but the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December contests.
Both teams have been flying over the total lately, with the Jags on high-scoring runs of 15-5-3 overall, 9-2-2 on the road, 11-5-2 on grass, 13-3 in December and 8-2-2 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Houston is on over stretches of 13-3 overall (9-2 this year), 5-1 at home (4-1 this year), 20-6 against AFC South rivals, 10-2 in December and 8-2 on grass.
Finally, the over is 11-2 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Orlando (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS) at Boston (16-2, 9-9 ATS)
The Celtics will try to run their winning streak to nine when they welcome the Magic to TD Banknorth Garden for a matchup between two of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.
Boston has picked right up where it left off after winning the NBA title last season and currently is riding an eight-game winning streak (5-3 ATS). The latest victory came Saturday, an 89-84 triumph at Charlotte, but the Celtics to cover as 8½-point road favorites, their second non-cover in their last three games.
Orlando arrives in Boston on a four-game overall (3-1 ATS) and a six-game road winning streak (4-1-1 ATS). The Magic beat Indiana 110-96 on Saturday as 7½-point favorites in Orlando, getting a huge game from superstar Dwight Howard (32 points, 21 rebounds). The Magic turn up the defensive heat on the road, limiting the opposition to 92.1 points a game, 41.1 percent shooting and just 26.5 percent from beyond the three-point line.
The home team has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS), including all three meetings last season. Boston holds an 11-2 ATS advantage against the Magic in Beantown, as the host is a whopping 20-6 ATS in the last 26 clashes.
Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games, but otherwise is on ATS streaks of 4-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 against the Atlantic Division and 5-2 after getting a day off. Doc Rivers’ Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-5 at home, 2-5 against the Southeast Division and 0-4 on Mondays, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a day off.
For the Magic, the under is on runs of 21-8 against the Eastern Conference, 21-7 after a spread-cover, 17-5 on the road and 25-10 after a straight-up win. For Boston, the over is 5-2 in its last seven against Southeast Division foes, but the under is 20-7 in its last 27 Monday games. Finally, in this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight matchups in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(19) Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at Virginia Tech (4-2, 2-2 ATS)
Wisconsin heads to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies in a Big Ten-ACC matchup in Monday’s marquee college hoops contest.
Wisconsin has won five of six to open the season, with the only loss coming a week ago to second-ranked Connecticut 76-57 in the Virgin Islands, failing to cover as a 5½-point ‘dog. The Badgers rebounded from that loss to beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 67-46 on Saturday, cashing as 17½-point home favorites.
Virginia Tech dropped back-to-back games in Puerto Rico last weekend, falling to Xavier 63-62 in overtime on a desperation half-court three-pointer at the buzzer on Nov. 21, covering as a two-point ‘dog, and then losing two days later to Seton Hall, 77-73 as a five-point chalk. The Hokies returned home on Wednesday and took their frustrations out on Elon College 76-67, but came nowhere near cashing as 19½-point favorites.
The Badgers are on ATS streaks of 11-5 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against ACC competition, 10-4 after a straight-up win and 5-2 on Mondays. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four against Big Ten foes, but otherwise are on ATS streaks of 11-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 8-1 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on Mondays.
For Wisconsin, the under is on streaks of 10-4-1 overall, 8-3-1 in non-conference games, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 9-3-1 after a straight-up win. But the over is on a plethora of streaks for the Hokies, including 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 after a non-cover. Also, the over is 4-0 in the Badgers’ last four against ACC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Jacksonville (4-7, 3-8 ATS) at Houston (4-7 SU and ATS)
The Jaguars visit Reliant Stadium in Houston to take on the Texans as both teams resume disappointing seasons.
Jacksonville has lost four of its last five games, including a 30-12 home loss to the Vikings last week as a one-point favorite. The Jags had five turnovers against the Vikings and allowed four sacks in their fourth straight home setback. On the bright side, Jack Del Rio’s team has been solid on the road lately, going 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four.
Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-6 road win in Cleveland last Sunday, cashing as a three-point road pup. Backup QB Sage Rosenfels threw for 275 yards and a TD but was picked twice in the second half to run his total to eight in his four starts for injured QB Matt Schaub.
The Texans have gone 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times the Jags have come calling in Houston, including a 42-28 win in 2007 as seven-point favorites. Earlier this season, the Jaguars got a 30-27 OT win but failed to cash as 6½-point favorites. The ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two, and Houston has gotten the cash in four of the last five overall. Finally, the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series battles.
Tonight marks Houston’s first-ever appearance in the Monday night spotlight, while the Jags are 7-4 SU (6-5 ATS) on Mondays in their franchise history.
Jacksonville is on ATS slides of 1-10 on grass, 1-5 against AFC competition and 1-4 against AFC South rivals, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 in December and 11-1 in Week 13 games. Houston is 1-4 ATS at home this year, but the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December contests.
Both teams have been flying over the total lately, with the Jags on high-scoring runs of 15-5-3 overall, 9-2-2 on the road, 11-5-2 on grass, 13-3 in December and 8-2-2 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Houston is on over stretches of 13-3 overall (9-2 this year), 5-1 at home (4-1 this year), 20-6 against AFC South rivals, 10-2 in December and 8-2 on grass.
Finally, the over is 11-2 on Monday nights this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Orlando (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS) at Boston (16-2, 9-9 ATS)
The Celtics will try to run their winning streak to nine when they welcome the Magic to TD Banknorth Garden for a matchup between two of the top three teams in the Eastern Conference.
Boston has picked right up where it left off after winning the NBA title last season and currently is riding an eight-game winning streak (5-3 ATS). The latest victory came Saturday, an 89-84 triumph at Charlotte, but the Celtics to cover as 8½-point road favorites, their second non-cover in their last three games.
Orlando arrives in Boston on a four-game overall (3-1 ATS) and a six-game road winning streak (4-1-1 ATS). The Magic beat Indiana 110-96 on Saturday as 7½-point favorites in Orlando, getting a huge game from superstar Dwight Howard (32 points, 21 rebounds). The Magic turn up the defensive heat on the road, limiting the opposition to 92.1 points a game, 41.1 percent shooting and just 26.5 percent from beyond the three-point line.
The home team has won six straight (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry and nine of the last 10 (8-2 ATS), including all three meetings last season. Boston holds an 11-2 ATS advantage against the Magic in Beantown, as the host is a whopping 20-6 ATS in the last 26 clashes.
Orlando is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games, but otherwise is on ATS streaks of 4-1-1 against the Eastern Conference, 5-0 against the Atlantic Division and 5-2 after getting a day off. Doc Rivers’ Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-5 at home, 2-5 against the Southeast Division and 0-4 on Mondays, but they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after a day off.
For the Magic, the under is on runs of 21-8 against the Eastern Conference, 21-7 after a spread-cover, 17-5 on the road and 25-10 after a straight-up win. For Boston, the over is 5-2 in its last seven against Southeast Division foes, but the under is 20-7 in its last 27 Monday games. Finally, in this series, the over is 6-2 in the last eight matchups in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(19) Wisconsin (5-1, 2-3 ATS) at Virginia Tech (4-2, 2-2 ATS)
Wisconsin heads to Blacksburg, Va., to take on the Hokies in a Big Ten-ACC matchup in Monday’s marquee college hoops contest.
Wisconsin has won five of six to open the season, with the only loss coming a week ago to second-ranked Connecticut 76-57 in the Virgin Islands, failing to cover as a 5½-point ‘dog. The Badgers rebounded from that loss to beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 67-46 on Saturday, cashing as 17½-point home favorites.
Virginia Tech dropped back-to-back games in Puerto Rico last weekend, falling to Xavier 63-62 in overtime on a desperation half-court three-pointer at the buzzer on Nov. 21, covering as a two-point ‘dog, and then losing two days later to Seton Hall, 77-73 as a five-point chalk. The Hokies returned home on Wednesday and took their frustrations out on Elon College 76-67, but came nowhere near cashing as 19½-point favorites.
The Badgers are on ATS streaks of 11-5 overall, 4-1 on the road, 5-1 against ACC competition, 10-4 after a straight-up win and 5-2 on Mondays. The Hokies are 0-4 ATS in their last four against Big Ten foes, but otherwise are on ATS streaks of 11-3 overall, 7-2 at home, 8-1 after a straight-up win and 4-1 on Mondays.
For Wisconsin, the under is on streaks of 10-4-1 overall, 8-3-1 in non-conference games, 19-7 after a spread-cover and 9-3-1 after a straight-up win. But the over is on a plethora of streaks for the Hokies, including 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 in non-conference games and 5-2 after a non-cover. Also, the over is 4-0 in the Badgers’ last four against ACC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
