Service Plays Monday 12/07/09

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NFL DUNKEL

MONDAY, DECEMBER 7

Game365-366: Baltimore at Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.316; Green Bay 136.987
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Under
 
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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 35-31 –3.60%

3% GREEN BAY -3.5

GREEN BAY -3.5 Baltimore 43
GREEN BAY 27 BALTIMORE 17
 
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Vegas Vic

PACKERS (-3) over Ravens.
Really like what Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have done since the bye week, winning five of seven, straight up and against the spread. And if we're talking defense, most people would think Baltimore, but under defensive coordinator Dom Capers, Green Bay has allowed a league-low 281.5 yards per game. Don't forget that Ravens QB Joe Flacco is still fighting a sprained ankle, which is why Baltimore has averaged only 14.5 points the last four games.
 
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Ace Ace


$2000.00 Take #366 Green Bay (-3) over Baltimore (8 p.m., Monday, Dec. 7)
This is a 99 System play. I am going to the home team here as it looks like the Packers have gotten things going. They have won three straight and they had some extra time to rest and prepare for this game. Baltimore is in a spot where they could have a letdown after beating rival Pittsburgh in overtime. Baltimore is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games and after tough games against Indy and Pittsburgh I wonder how much energy they will have for this key game. GB has the top defense in the NFL and they are 3-1 ATS in their last four home games.
 
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Dave Malinsky

4* #366 GREEN BAY over BALTIMORE

We know where we are going to be on Monday night, and because the markets are showing signs of aligning the same way we will pull the trigger now – the 3’s that are available are going to be harder to find as we get closer to kickoff.The Packers have been significantly better than the Ravens across the board, and in fact have been one of the N.F.L.’s best teams when we go through the base categories – they lead the opposition by a commanding 6:48 per game in time of possession, off of advantages of 49 first downs and 1,105 yards. They get 1.83 yards per pass more than they allow, and the rushing is 4.3 vs. 3.6. But they have not been able to show better than that 7-4 in the W/L column because of one significant weakness, the inability to protect Aaron Rodgers early in the season. Through those 11 games they have allowed an alarming 44 sacks. But as the OL developed some chemistry, and the playbook was tweaked to work around the protection issues, there are signs of real improvement, with no sacks allowed the last two games. And when Rodgers is not being sacked this passing attack brings tremendous abilities to attack down the field – he has had a passer rating of at least 108.0 in seven of the last nine games, and three different Green Bay receivers have are averaging better than 15.0 per catch with more than 20 receptions.The passing game presents a major headache for a Baltimore secondary that has struggled all season, and in the first road game since losing Fabian Washington they are even more vulnerable. To make matters worse they can not rely on the pass rush to pick up much of the slack with Terrell Suggs, who is expected to miss his third straight game, and they have not recorded a sack since he went down. And while it does look like Ed Reed will be able to go, Reed missed two days of practice this week, and is not going to be 100 percent.Do not be surprised to see a weary Baltimore team here off of those exhausting outings against the Colts and Steelers the past two weeks, while the Packers not only have the advantage of extra preparation time, but they were coasting in each of their last two outings (remember that the 30-24 win over San Francisco was at 30-10 in the fourth quarter). The edge in freshness brings an aggressive approach that can put the Raven pass defense on its heels, and leads to a convincing win
 
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JB Computer

Monday, December 7th, 2009 (eastern time)
Baltimore at Green Bay, 8:30 PM
Green Bay Packers -3
 
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TULEY THE TOUT

* = best plays
*Ravens +3.5 vs. Packers...Monday...with the line move giving us the hook, I really feel Ravens are the right side
 

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