STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/22
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NFL *****
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*** CHARGERS TRY TO SALVAGE SEASON ***
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The second half of the season has been a time the San Diego Chargers have savored in past years, and a period the Denver Broncos have come to dread. While the four-time AFC West champion Chargers attempt to put together another strong stretch run to propel themselves into the playoffs, the Broncos enter Monday's divisional showdown at Qualcomm Stadium intent on avoiding the late- year collapses they've been identified by in recent times.
San Diego got off to its customary slow start under head coach Norv Turner, dropping five of its first seven contests of this 2010 season, but once again has begun to kick it into gear as the holidays approach. The Chargers headed into last week's bye with a head of steam, having followed up a critical 33-25 home victory over contending Tennessee on Oct. 31 with a stirring come-from- behind triumph at Houston in Week 9.
The surge has vaulted San Diego within one game of first place in the AFC West, a spot presently shared by Kansas City and Oakland. The Chargers scored 15 unanswered points on two touchdown passes from MVP candidate Philip Rivers in the second half to upend the fading Texans by a 29-23 count, with the verdict extending the club's winning streak in November games to six. The Bolts have been even better in the season's final month, having prevailed in 19 straight non-playoff tilts in December and January since 2006.
Denver has often gone in the other direction during the season's final stages. The team is a subpar 15-23 from November on since 2006, with San Diego having amassed a stellar 32-5 record over that same time frame. The Broncos lost eight of their last 10 bouts following a 6-0 start under first-year head coach Josh McDaniels last season, and were overtaken by the Chargers for the AFC West crown in 2008 after ending the campaign with three consecutive defeats that triggered the dismissal of longtime sideline boss Mike Shanahan.
Denver seemed on its way to another dismal second half of this season after being dealt four straight losses prior to its own Week 9 bye. The Broncos came out like gangbusters in their first outing after the break, however, opening last Sunday's game with Kansas City with 35 consecutive points en route to a 49-29 thrashing of the shell-shocked Chiefs. Quarterback Kyle Orton led the outburst by throwing for a career-high four touchdowns in a 22-of-34, 296-yard display. The standout signal-caller has now racked up 2,806 passing yards through the first nine games, second only to the 2,944 compiled by Rivers in his assault on the NFL single-season record books.
Rivers also had four touchdown passes in San Diego's latest win, despite participating with a depleted receiving corps that didn't have All-Pro tight end Antonio Gates due to a lingering foot problem and wideouts Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee because of hamstring strains. Both Floyd and Naanee appear to be on track for a return on Monday, but Gates' status figures to remain in limbo up until game time.
Monday's matchup has significant meaning as well for Denver, which trails the Chargers by one game in the division standings, and especially so for Broncos nose tackle Jamal Williams. The 34-year-old spent his first 12 NFL seasons with San Diego before being released in March, earning three Pro Bowl citations during that stretch.
• SERIES HISTORY
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The Broncos lead the all-time series with San Diego, 54-45-1, including an unconventional split of last year's home-and-home. Denver earned a 34-23 upset road win when the teams met in a primetime game in San Diego in Week 6, with the Chargers returning the favor in the form of a 32-2 thrashing in Denver in Week 11. The teams embarked on a conventional split of the 2008 home-and-home, including the Chargers' thorough 52-21 pounding of the Broncos at Qualcomm Stadium to win the AFC West title in Week 17. Turner is 5-7 in his career against the Broncos, including 4-2 since taking over in San Diego in 2007. The Broncos' McDaniels is 1-1 against both Turner and San Diego as a head coach.
• WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL
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The former coordinator of a New England Patriots offense that shattered numerous NFL records in 2007, McDaniels operates a diverse pass-first attack in which Orton (2806 passing yards, 16 TD, 5 INT) has thrived since coming over from Chicago in the Jay Cutler trade prior to last season. The sixth-year pro been able to skillfully spread the ball around to a solid cast of receivers headlined by another ex-Bear in Brandon Lloyd (48 receptions, 968 yards, 6 TD), the league's current leader in receiving yards. The breakout star is averaging better than 20 yards per catch as the big-play threat in Denver's second-ranked aerial assault (312.1 ypg), with journeyman Jabar Gaffney (48 receptions, 573, 2 TD) and slotman Eddie Royal (43 receptions, 2 TD) usually working the lanes underneath.
The Broncos have had trouble mounting a steady running game, having averaged league lows of 76.8 rushing yards per week and 3.2 yards per attempt, but are coming off a landmark performance in last Sunday's rout of the Chiefs. Top back Knowshon Moreno (358 rushing yards, 15 receptions, 5 total TD) had a season-best 106 yards on 22 carries in the game, while adding 50 receiving yards and a score. Denver's longest running play on the season is just 19 yards, also the worst in the NFL.
Denver's prolific passing numbers will be put to the test by perhaps the best defense Orton has seen this year. The Chargers have yielded the third-fewest passing yards in the league (185.2 ypg) as well as only eight touchdowns through the air, while Texans All-Pro receiver Andre Johnson was held to just four catches for 41 yards by cornerbacks Quentin Jammer (24 tackles, 1 INT, 8 PD) and Antoine Cason (37 tackles, 2 INT, 9 PD) in that Week 9 meeting.
San Diego also stands among the NFL leaders with 27 sacks, with nearly half that total coming from the linebacking duo of Shaun Phillips (30 tackles, 7 sacks, 1 INT) on the outside and Kevin Burnett (52 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT) along the interior. Antonio Garay (30 tackles, 4 sacks), who's taken over for Williams on the nose, has also helped out in that area in addition to lending support to the league's fourth-rated run defense (89.4 ypg). The Chargers have given up their two highest yardage numbers in their two recent wins, with Tennessee gaining 370 yards in Week 8 before Houston managed 392 on the unit, 140 of which came on the ground.
• WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
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A revolving door at the skill positions has done little to slow down Rivers (2944 passing yards, 19 TD, 8 INT), who's averaging an astounding 327.1 passing yards per game while completing 65 percent of his throws in expertly directing the NFL's top-ranked total offense (420.2 ypg). The fiery field general helped make a star out of unknown rookie Seyi Ajirotutu (9 receptions, 2 TD) in the Houston game, with the undrafted wideout producing 111 yards and two scores on only four catches, while little-used veteran Randy McMichael (7 receptions, 2 TD) also had a pair of touchdown grabs in subbing for Gates (40 receptions, 663 yards, 9 TD). That may the case on Monday as well, with the star tight end slow to recover from a plantar fascia tear in his foot.
The physical and dangerous Floyd (24 receptions, 513 yards, 3 TD) does appear ready to come back from a three-game absence to take his spot alongside Cowboys castoff Patrick Crayton (25 receptions), however. The Chargers are also dealing with injuries at running back, with talented rookie Ryan Mathews (382 rushing yards, 2 TD, 15 receptions) likely to be limited on Monday due to an ankle sprain. Converted fullback Mike Tolbert (395 rushing yards, 7 TD, 14 receptions) will be the top candidate for carries this week, with the diminutive Darren Sproles (131 rushing yards, 29 receptions, 1 TD) maintaining his duties as the third-down back.
Rivers could be set up for another big night this week, considering the Broncos are a troubling 28th overall in pass efficiency defense and have come up with only five interceptions on the year, and the group was lit up for 469 yards and four touchdowns by Kansas City's Matt Cassel a week ago. A secondary in which all four regulars are 32 years old or over has begun to show its age, as cornerback Andre Goodman has played in only four games due to a quadriceps problem and isn't expected back on Monday and 37-year-old free safety Brian Dawkins (39 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) hasn't been able to make the same impact the eight-time Pro Bowler has in years past.
A sporadic pass rush that's generated a mere 13 sacks hasn't helped matters, although the team did take down Cassel four times last Sunday. Outside linebacker Mario Haggan (57 tackles, 3 sacks) had three of those sacks, one of which forced a fumble that counterpart Jason Hunter (36 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) returned 75 yards for a touchdown. Inside linebacker and leading tackler D.J. Williams (74 tackles, 3.5 sacks) will be back in the starting lineup after being benched for part of the Week 10 win following a DUI arrest, while rush linebacker Robert Ayers (19 tackles, 1.5 sacks) could return from a broken foot that's kept the 2009 first-round pick out since early October.
• PREGAME NOTES
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San Diego may very well make another late-season run but our database is not enthralled with this double-digit line. For starters, the Chargers are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven encounters as double-digit division chalk while HC Norv Turner is a ‘moneyburning’ 15-27 ATS at home versus division foes. It gets worse as San Diego is just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS on Monday versus a division opponent off a SU and ATS win while the Broncos are 4-0 SU and ATS versus a division foe with rest!
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Diego by 9; O/U 51
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Diego -7.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Diego -6.98
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 32-14 ATS (+16.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.1, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 24-41 ATS (-21.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 24.4, OPPONENT 19.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 16.0, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 65-41 OVER (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.6, OPPONENT 20.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 20-5 OVER (+14.5 Units) vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game after 8+ games since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 27.5, OPPONENT 23.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 7-0 OVER (+7.0 Units) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 24.6, OPPONENT 31.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) in home games after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 9.1, OPPONENT 13.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 6-22 against the 1rst half line (-18.2 Units) after the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 9.4, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--DENVER is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 7.3, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 1-11 against the 1rst half line (-11.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 7.3, OPPONENT 14.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 45-22 OVER (+20.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 12.8, OPPONENT 11.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 19-4 OVER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was DENVER 9.9, OPPONENT 18.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) - excellent passing team (>=265 PY/G) against an average passing defense (185-230 PY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(25-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (86.2%, +20.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 13.1, Opponent 12.2 (Average first half point differential = +0.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (29-11).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (55-27).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (SAN DIEGO) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%).
(24-5 since 1983.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (15-14)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.6
The average score in these games was: Team 21.7, Opponent 20.9 (Average point differential = +0.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 11 (40.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (4-1).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (7-3).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - with a poor passing D - allowing a comp pct of 60% or worse, after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game.
(27-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 51.2
The average score in these games was: Team 22.8, Opponent 22.3 (Total points scored = 45.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 18 (62.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-5).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (47-38).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (71-53).
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total (DENVER) - after beating the spread by more than 28 points in their previous game, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season.
(26-6 since 1983.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 20.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 5.5, Opponent 10.3 (Total first half points scored = 15.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (2-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-0).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
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• • • • • 16-0 ATS NFL - MONDAY NIGHT MAGIC! • • • • •
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