dr. bob
BUFFALO (-5.0) 24 Cleveland 19
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Nov-17 - Stats Matchup
Brady Quinn played pretty well in his NFL debut against Denver last week, as he averaged 6.8 yards per pass play without throwing an interception. The yardage number is actually below average considering Denver would allow 6.9 yppp on the road to an average quarterback, but Quinn should have another pretty good outing against a below average Bills’ secondary that is without their best player in S Donte Whitner. Buffalo gave up 6.5 yppp to a poor passing Patriots team last week without their star defensive back their defense has been getting steadily worse as the season has progressed. Cleveland’s defense is in even worse shape, as the Browns have allowed 6.0 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average team. Buffalo is 0.2 yppl below average offensively, but they should move the ball pretty well in this game. Cleveland has gone 3-3 since starting the season with 3 losses and the Bills have lost 4 of 5 games since their 4-0 start to the season and my math model favors Buffalo by only 2 ½ points in this game. Buffalo does apply to a 63-23-2 ATS Monday night home team angle and a 46-15-4 ATS subset of a 123-63-8 ATS statistical indicator, so I’ll pass on this game.