THE SPORTS ADVISORS
Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams in desperate need of a victory square off tonight at Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Browns make the trek to Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Cleveland has dropped two straight (0-2 ATS) and three of four (2-2 ATS). The Browns have blown fourth-quarter leads the last two weeks, falling to Baltimore 37-27 as one-point home favorites on Nov. 2 and then losing 34-30 to Denver on Nov. 6 as a three-point home chalk, with the defensive giving up 564 total yards including 441 passing yards, including three fourth-quarter touchdown passes.
Brady Quinn made his debut as the Browns’ starting QB against the Broncos and was an impressive 23-of-25 passing for 239 yards and two TDs with no INTs.
Since opening the season with four straight wins, the Bills have dropped four of five SU and ATS including the last three in a row, all to AFC East foes. Last week in New England, Buffalo mustered just 168 total yards and fell 20-10 as a 3½-point ‘dog, and in their most recent home game, the Bills fell 26-17 to the Jets as five-point favorites. Buffalo has turned the ball over nine times and QB Trent Edwards has been sacked nine times during its current three-game slide.
Last year when these two squared off in Cleveland, the Browns got an 8-0 win as four-point favorites as the Bills managed just 232 yards of offense in blizzard-like conditions. Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis did the bulk of the damage, running for 163 yards on 33 carries.
Cleveland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 17-7 overall, 7-3 on the road, 12-5 against teams from the AFC, 13-3 against teams with a winning record and 9-3 following a non-cover. Buffalo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall and 0-4 in November games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 12-5 at home, 39-19-3 against teams with a losing record and 13-3 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Cleveland is 14-12 SU (15-11 ATS) in its last 26 Monday games while Buffalo is 17-21 SU (18-18-2 ATS) under the Monday night lights.
For the Browns, the over is 5-1 in their last six November games, but otherwise the team is on under streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-3 against AFC teams, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-1 on the road. For the Bills, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 against AFC teams, 11-4 against teams with a losing record and 35-16-1 following a straight-up loss, but the over is on runs of 6-1-1 at home and 4-0 on Mondays.
Finally, the over is 9-2 in Monday night matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Massachusetts (1-1, 0-1 ATS) at (13) Memphis (1-0 SU and ATS)
John Calipari and his Tigers host the coach’s former school when the Minutemen visit Memphis in a non-conference matchup.
Calipari coached in Massachusetts from 1988-1996 and led the school to five straight Atlantic 10 titles and NCAA Tournaments, including a Final Four appearance in 1996. Now in his eighth campaign in Memphis, Calipari has led the Tigers to the Big Dance in five of the last six years, including making it to the national title game last year before losing to Kansas 75-68 in overtime.
Memphis (38-2, 18-18-2 ATS in 2007-08) lost its two leading scorers in Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose to the NBA, but is still favored to win Conference USA. The Tigers opened Saturday with a 90-63 blowout win over Fairfield in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-off Tournament, cashing as 21-point favorites. Four of Memphis’ five starters scored in double digits, with Shawn Taggart leading the way with 14 points and 12 rebounds.
The Tigers opened last season with a 26-game winning streak (13-11-2 ATS) before losing at home to Tennessee, then the Tigers won 12 more in a row (5-7 ATS) before the loss in the national title game. Memphis went 18-1 at the FedEx Forum last year, but just 10-8-1 ATS.
UMass (25-11, 17-15-1 ATS last year) reached the NIT championship game at Madison Square Garden in April, falling to Ohio State 92-85 in the title tilt as three-point pups. The Minutemen rattled off four wins to get the final, going 3-1 ATS in the process, and they finished 11-8 on the highway (11-7 ATS).
First-year Minutemen coach Derek Kellogg played for Calipari at UMass and was his assistant at Memphis the last eight seasons. Kellogg easily won his debut Tuesday, pounding Arkansas-Monticello 90-71 in an un-lined contest, but fell Wednesday 80-73 at Southern Illinois, blowing a nine-point halftime lead and failing as five-point underdogs.
UMass is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven Monday games, while the Tigers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on Mondays and 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a spread-cover. However, Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
For the Minutemen, the over is 20-9-1 in their last 30 non-conference games and 12-5 in their last 17 after a non-cover. For Memphis, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 against teams from the Atlantic 10 and 6-1 in non-conference games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
Phoenix (8-3, 6-5 ATS) at Utah (6-4, 4-6 ATS)
The Jazz return to the friendly surroundings of EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City when they host the Suns in a Western Conference matchup.
Utah is coming off a five-game East Coast road swing that saw the Jazz go just 1-4 SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 105-93 loss in Cleveland as 10½-point favorites. Not only has Utah lost three in a row, it is just 1-5 ATS in its last six. At home, though, the Jazz are a perfect 4-0 (2-2 ATS), averaging 10 more points per game (101.5-91.5) and shooting 49.5 percent from the field as opposed to 43.4 percent for their visitors.
Phoenix is coming off last night’s 104-86 win over the Pistons, easily cashing as a two-point home favorite. The Suns are on a 4-1 SU roll, but are just 2-4 ATS in their last six, with last night’s spread-cover snapping a three-game ATS slump. Phoenix has been doing it with defense lately, allowing just one opponent to top the 100-point mark in its last five games.
Utah won two of the three meetings with Phoenix last season (3-0 ATS), and the Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight with the Suns. In the only battle in Salt Lake City last season, the Jazz crushed the Suns 108-86 as 7½-point favorites, but otherwise the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Phoenix is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Western Conference squads and 2-4-1 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. Utah is on positive ATS streaks of 41-18-2 at home, 13-3 on Mondays and 4-1 against Pacific Division foes, but the Jazz are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 against teams with a winning record.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 when the Suns play the second night of a back-to-back and 6-0 when they play on Mondays. For Utah, the over is on runs of 24-10 against Pacific Division teams, 5-2 at home against teams with a winning road record and 5-1 when they return home after a road trip of seven or more days.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
