King Creole
477 SEA / 478 WAS UNDER 46.0 Bookmaker.com
2** UNDER the TOTAL / Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins
Seattle comes into tonight’s game off their Bye Week. And the host Redskins come in off a Thursday home loss to division rival New York. While it is not surprising that Seattle comes in with one of the better defenses in the NFL (#6 overall)… it IS surprising that despite the fact that they just allowed 45 points, Washington ALSO come in with a Top Ten defense (324 YPG allowed / #8). Our database simulations have this game finishing with a final score of 23 to 17. Not quite a full TD margin… but 5-6 points less than the current OU line anyway.
First off, we head to the database and query multiple Day of the Week OU tendencies. They all point to a lower-scoring outcome than anticipated:
(1) MONDAY home dogs of +5 or greater points (Wash) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in the last 4 seasons…
(2) MONDAY teams off a Thursday game (Wash) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is > 39 pts and < 52 pts…
(3) MONDAY teams playing with REST (Seat) have gone 2-11 O/U, and a PERFECT 0-6 O/U as favs > 3 pts (Seat).
One more query in regards to Seattle coming in off their Bye Week… ALL NFL road favorites of -6 > points playing with REST (Seahawks) have gone 0-6 O/U in the last three seasons.
Washington was favored in their last game and lost OUTRIGHT by 31 pts... 0-5 O/U L3Y: All NFL dogs off a SU favorite loss of 28 > pts (Wash).
In that home loss, Washington allowed the NY Giants to score 45 points... 5-18 O/U since 1981: All NFL home teams who allowed 45 > pts at HOME the previous week (Wash).
Finally, we input the divisional aspect of that last loss... 0-9 O/U since 2002: All NFL teams off a SU division home loss of 31 > pts (Wash) when the OU line is > 41 points.
At last look, the Seahawks were laying MORE than a full TD in this game... 1-13 O/U last 3 years: All NFL road favorites of -7 > pts (Sea) when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 48 points.
Washington is a PERFECT 0-5 O/U L2Y as home dogs of 2 > w/ a line of > 44 points. Seattle went a PERFECT 0-5 O/U last year on the NFC road w/ line > 41 points.
Washington has gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U on MONDAYS in NON-division games over the the last 13 seasons…
Seattle has gone 0-3 O/U on MONDAYS in the last two seasons… and 1-4 O/U in the last six seasons.
477 SEA / 478 WAS UNDER 46.0 Bookmaker.com
2** UNDER the TOTAL / Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Redskins
Seattle comes into tonight’s game off their Bye Week. And the host Redskins come in off a Thursday home loss to division rival New York. While it is not surprising that Seattle comes in with one of the better defenses in the NFL (#6 overall)… it IS surprising that despite the fact that they just allowed 45 points, Washington ALSO come in with a Top Ten defense (324 YPG allowed / #8). Our database simulations have this game finishing with a final score of 23 to 17. Not quite a full TD margin… but 5-6 points less than the current OU line anyway.
First off, we head to the database and query multiple Day of the Week OU tendencies. They all point to a lower-scoring outcome than anticipated:
(1) MONDAY home dogs of +5 or greater points (Wash) have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in the last 4 seasons…
(2) MONDAY teams off a Thursday game (Wash) have gone 1-7 O/U when the OU line is > 39 pts and < 52 pts…
(3) MONDAY teams playing with REST (Seat) have gone 2-11 O/U, and a PERFECT 0-6 O/U as favs > 3 pts (Seat).
One more query in regards to Seattle coming in off their Bye Week… ALL NFL road favorites of -6 > points playing with REST (Seahawks) have gone 0-6 O/U in the last three seasons.
Washington was favored in their last game and lost OUTRIGHT by 31 pts... 0-5 O/U L3Y: All NFL dogs off a SU favorite loss of 28 > pts (Wash).
In that home loss, Washington allowed the NY Giants to score 45 points... 5-18 O/U since 1981: All NFL home teams who allowed 45 > pts at HOME the previous week (Wash).
Finally, we input the divisional aspect of that last loss... 0-9 O/U since 2002: All NFL teams off a SU division home loss of 31 > pts (Wash) when the OU line is > 41 points.
At last look, the Seahawks were laying MORE than a full TD in this game... 1-13 O/U last 3 years: All NFL road favorites of -7 > pts (Sea) when the OU line is in the range of 38 to 48 points.
Washington is a PERFECT 0-5 O/U L2Y as home dogs of 2 > w/ a line of > 44 points. Seattle went a PERFECT 0-5 O/U last year on the NFC road w/ line > 41 points.
Washington has gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U on MONDAYS in NON-division games over the the last 13 seasons…
Seattle has gone 0-3 O/U on MONDAYS in the last two seasons… and 1-4 O/U in the last six seasons.
VegasButcher - #8: Los Angeles Dodgers (1st 5 innings ONLY) -120
Through the 2nd half of the year, John Lackey ranked as my 111th pitcher out of 160. His K-rate dropped from 21% to 17%, his HR-rate increased from 1.0 to 1.2 HR/9, his GB-rate dropped from 47% to 41%, and his FIP increased from 3.5 to 4.2, a pretty large jump. It’s important to note that all of these increases happened with Lackey pitching 10 games in the National League, where there’s a ‘pitcher’ spot in the batting order and overall the offenses aren’t as potent. I’ve looked at Lackey’s performance since joining the Cardinals and he ended up with a 4.0 SIERA in those 10 games, a mark that would rank him among pitchers like AJ Burnett, Masterson, and Vidal Nuno. And it’s not like he was pitching against tough lineups. His opponents were CIN three times, CHC two times, MIL two times (Brewers were way below average offensively in the 2nd half of the year), SDP, PIT, and BAL. Only 2 of those 10 matchups were quality offenses, and the rest were all in the bottom-10. One issue that I’ve noticed is that Lackey’s velocity dropped. Prior to joining the Cardinals he averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball. In the 10 games with the Cards, his average fastball was at 90.6, a 1.5 MPH drop which is absolutely huge. In his last 5 starts his average velocity was at 90.1, which is a full 2 MPH drop from his average prior to joining St Louis. Is Lackey injured? I know he needed to skip a start in the middle of September due to arm fatigue and it doesn’t look like he regained his velocity since. His velocity in his last regular season start was exactly 90.1, which is the average for his last 5 games on the mound. Typically when a pitcher loses this much off his fastball, that’s an indication that there’s an injury at play. Additionally, Lackey is a fastball/slider type of a pitcher, accounting for about 90% of his pitches from those two offerings. There are only 3 teams in MLB that rank in the top-10 offensively against BOTH the fastball and the slider. Facing them, Lackey recorded a 4.7 ERA against the Tigers (#4 FB / #3 SL) in 13.1 innings and a 9.1 ERA against the Orioles (#1 FB / #5 SL) in 21.2 innings. The third such MLB team with the same profile is LA Dodgers, who rank #9 against the Fastball and #2 against the Slider. In addition, this is the #1 offensive team in all of baseball over the course of the 2nd half of the season and a team that ranks #2 offensively against right-handed pitchers. I think this is a really bad matchup for Lackey.
But even if Lackey throws a great game, I think Dodgers have a strong edge on the mound as well. Ryu was my 4th rated starter in the 2nd half of the year, only behind Carrasco, Kluber, and Kershaw. He also has been absolutely filthy against the Cards in the last 2 years, allowing 3 ER’s in 21 innings of work with 18 K and only 2 BB. That’s a 1.3 ERA and 0.9 WHIP in 3 career starts against them. Cardinals have 4 lefties in the lineup tonight, and Ryu has a 2.5 FIP against left-handers, an elite mark. Plus consider that Grichuk has been terrible against lefties in his short career (.254 OBP vs .308 against righties) while Yadier Molina has been absolutely struggling to find his form (.281 wOBA + 78 wRC+ in 2nd half since returning from injury vs .329 wOBA + 110 wRC+ prior) at the plate, thus leaving Holliday + Peralta as potentially the only truly dangerous hitters for Ryu tonight. Ryu hasn’t pitched in a game since September 12th so I’m assuming he’ll be on some sort of a pitch-count tonight and I don’t expect him to go past the 6th inning. Since I don’t feel like sweating out this Dodgers bullpen for 3+ innings, I’ll back LA for the 1st 5 innings only.
Through the 2nd half of the year, John Lackey ranked as my 111th pitcher out of 160. His K-rate dropped from 21% to 17%, his HR-rate increased from 1.0 to 1.2 HR/9, his GB-rate dropped from 47% to 41%, and his FIP increased from 3.5 to 4.2, a pretty large jump. It’s important to note that all of these increases happened with Lackey pitching 10 games in the National League, where there’s a ‘pitcher’ spot in the batting order and overall the offenses aren’t as potent. I’ve looked at Lackey’s performance since joining the Cardinals and he ended up with a 4.0 SIERA in those 10 games, a mark that would rank him among pitchers like AJ Burnett, Masterson, and Vidal Nuno. And it’s not like he was pitching against tough lineups. His opponents were CIN three times, CHC two times, MIL two times (Brewers were way below average offensively in the 2nd half of the year), SDP, PIT, and BAL. Only 2 of those 10 matchups were quality offenses, and the rest were all in the bottom-10. One issue that I’ve noticed is that Lackey’s velocity dropped. Prior to joining the Cardinals he averaged 92.1 MPH on his fastball. In the 10 games with the Cards, his average fastball was at 90.6, a 1.5 MPH drop which is absolutely huge. In his last 5 starts his average velocity was at 90.1, which is a full 2 MPH drop from his average prior to joining St Louis. Is Lackey injured? I know he needed to skip a start in the middle of September due to arm fatigue and it doesn’t look like he regained his velocity since. His velocity in his last regular season start was exactly 90.1, which is the average for his last 5 games on the mound. Typically when a pitcher loses this much off his fastball, that’s an indication that there’s an injury at play. Additionally, Lackey is a fastball/slider type of a pitcher, accounting for about 90% of his pitches from those two offerings. There are only 3 teams in MLB that rank in the top-10 offensively against BOTH the fastball and the slider. Facing them, Lackey recorded a 4.7 ERA against the Tigers (#4 FB / #3 SL) in 13.1 innings and a 9.1 ERA against the Orioles (#1 FB / #5 SL) in 21.2 innings. The third such MLB team with the same profile is LA Dodgers, who rank #9 against the Fastball and #2 against the Slider. In addition, this is the #1 offensive team in all of baseball over the course of the 2nd half of the season and a team that ranks #2 offensively against right-handed pitchers. I think this is a really bad matchup for Lackey.
But even if Lackey throws a great game, I think Dodgers have a strong edge on the mound as well. Ryu was my 4th rated starter in the 2nd half of the year, only behind Carrasco, Kluber, and Kershaw. He also has been absolutely filthy against the Cards in the last 2 years, allowing 3 ER’s in 21 innings of work with 18 K and only 2 BB. That’s a 1.3 ERA and 0.9 WHIP in 3 career starts against them. Cardinals have 4 lefties in the lineup tonight, and Ryu has a 2.5 FIP against left-handers, an elite mark. Plus consider that Grichuk has been terrible against lefties in his short career (.254 OBP vs .308 against righties) while Yadier Molina has been absolutely struggling to find his form (.281 wOBA + 78 wRC+ in 2nd half since returning from injury vs .329 wOBA + 110 wRC+ prior) at the plate, thus leaving Holliday + Peralta as potentially the only truly dangerous hitters for Ryu tonight. Ryu hasn’t pitched in a game since September 12th so I’m assuming he’ll be on some sort of a pitch-count tonight and I don’t expect him to go past the 6th inning. Since I don’t feel like sweating out this Dodgers bullpen for 3+ innings, I’ll back LA for the 1st 5 innings only.
