Street Rosenthal of HandicappingTrends
2-0 in the NFL yesterday and 0-2 in MLB
*300 Minnesota Vikings -4
If this line was still 3 I would make this a *500 play. All the hype is on Favre tonight. However, Adrian Peterson will have a night to remember. The Packers are average at best on defense, while the Vikings are above average on offense. The Packers have allowed their qb to sacked a leaque leading 12 times. The Vikings have gotten to their opponents qb 8 times already this year. 3-0 teams are 21-4 ATS in Game 4 if they're at home and not favored by more than 4 points. Playing at home will be a big advantage for the Vikings tonight. Take Favre and the Vikings laying the points on this big stage tonight for an easy cover.
2-0 in the NFL yesterday and 0-2 in MLB
*300 Minnesota Vikings -4
If this line was still 3 I would make this a *500 play. All the hype is on Favre tonight. However, Adrian Peterson will have a night to remember. The Packers are average at best on defense, while the Vikings are above average on offense. The Packers have allowed their qb to sacked a leaque leading 12 times. The Vikings have gotten to their opponents qb 8 times already this year. 3-0 teams are 21-4 ATS in Game 4 if they're at home and not favored by more than 4 points. Playing at home will be a big advantage for the Vikings tonight. Take Favre and the Vikings laying the points on this big stage tonight for an easy cover.
Evan Altemus
Green Bay vs. Minnesota
This total is not being priced accurately. Last season’s games between these two teams had totals set at 37 and 44 points. Now this season the total is inflated to 46 points. The second game between these two teams last season had Minnesota winning a 28-27 game for a combined 55 points. However, that game is somewhat of an anomaly, as there were two safeties, a long touchdown pass, a 54 yard field goal, and an interception and punt return for touchdowns. Essentially half of the points came off of big plays that don’t happen very often, especially all of them in one game. In addition, this contest has the most hype around it than any regular season game in recent memory. Both teams are going to be very amped up for this game, and usually that means a slow start for both teams. Green Bay has been excellent against the pass this season, while they have struggled against the run. Minnesota will no doubt have a run focused offensive game plan, which means the clock will run more and thus the game will be shorter with less possessions. In addition, the Vikings have one of the best defenses in football, and they will be focused on shutting down the Packers. Last season Green Bay only got 174 yards of total offense against Minnesota. If I had to make a selection on the side in this game, then I would look at Minnesota, but I feel that they are over valued now with the line at -5. Green Bay will load the box and force Brett Favre to try and beat them. However, the Packers have an excellent secondary which should be able to contain the Vikings passing game, especially since they know Favre’s tendencies. Look for this game to be hard fought and lower scoring than the total would suggest.
3 UNIT SELECTION UNDER
Green Bay vs. Minnesota
This total is not being priced accurately. Last season’s games between these two teams had totals set at 37 and 44 points. Now this season the total is inflated to 46 points. The second game between these two teams last season had Minnesota winning a 28-27 game for a combined 55 points. However, that game is somewhat of an anomaly, as there were two safeties, a long touchdown pass, a 54 yard field goal, and an interception and punt return for touchdowns. Essentially half of the points came off of big plays that don’t happen very often, especially all of them in one game. In addition, this contest has the most hype around it than any regular season game in recent memory. Both teams are going to be very amped up for this game, and usually that means a slow start for both teams. Green Bay has been excellent against the pass this season, while they have struggled against the run. Minnesota will no doubt have a run focused offensive game plan, which means the clock will run more and thus the game will be shorter with less possessions. In addition, the Vikings have one of the best defenses in football, and they will be focused on shutting down the Packers. Last season Green Bay only got 174 yards of total offense against Minnesota. If I had to make a selection on the side in this game, then I would look at Minnesota, but I feel that they are over valued now with the line at -5. Green Bay will load the box and force Brett Favre to try and beat them. However, the Packers have an excellent secondary which should be able to contain the Vikings passing game, especially since they know Favre’s tendencies. Look for this game to be hard fought and lower scoring than the total would suggest.
3 UNIT SELECTION UNDER
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Green Bay vs. Minnesota
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the "under": After watching every analyst and their dogs talk about tonight's game during yesterdays "Half-Time" reports, there is little point getting into the Favre's past and the significance of this game for him. What we can get into though are some cold hard numbers; the Vikings are fourth in total defense, allowing 260 yards per game and have have eight sacks. To say his teammates, on both sides of the ball, are anxious to get this victory for him would be an understatement; “I think everybody knows what’s at stake, and more importantly we’re on a roll right now,” linebacker Ben Leber said. “I know that we want to go out and fight for Brett and get a win for him, but at the same time we want to be 4-0. It’s been a huge motivation for us to be 4-0 and just keep this streak going. That’s our main concern.” Favre has just one INT this season and is limiting TO's and stupid mistakes. His counterpart, Aaron Rodgers has only completed 65.7% of his passes this year and Green Bay is averaging just 105 yards on the ground per contest. Favre is the central figure in all of the hype, but I believe the Vikes will look to run this ball first and for Brett to continue play a disciplined game and to limit his mistakes and to control his adrenaline. Dating back to last season the total has gone under the posted number in four of the Vikings last six overall, and behind a heavy dose of Adrian "Clock Killing" Peterson and the Vikes continued domination on the defensive side of the ball, I expect this trend to continue; when taking into account all of the above factors I have to recommend a play on the Under.
Green Bay vs. Minnesota
For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this game is on the "under": After watching every analyst and their dogs talk about tonight's game during yesterdays "Half-Time" reports, there is little point getting into the Favre's past and the significance of this game for him. What we can get into though are some cold hard numbers; the Vikings are fourth in total defense, allowing 260 yards per game and have have eight sacks. To say his teammates, on both sides of the ball, are anxious to get this victory for him would be an understatement; “I think everybody knows what’s at stake, and more importantly we’re on a roll right now,” linebacker Ben Leber said. “I know that we want to go out and fight for Brett and get a win for him, but at the same time we want to be 4-0. It’s been a huge motivation for us to be 4-0 and just keep this streak going. That’s our main concern.” Favre has just one INT this season and is limiting TO's and stupid mistakes. His counterpart, Aaron Rodgers has only completed 65.7% of his passes this year and Green Bay is averaging just 105 yards on the ground per contest. Favre is the central figure in all of the hype, but I believe the Vikes will look to run this ball first and for Brett to continue play a disciplined game and to limit his mistakes and to control his adrenaline. Dating back to last season the total has gone under the posted number in four of the Vikings last six overall, and behind a heavy dose of Adrian "Clock Killing" Peterson and the Vikes continued domination on the defensive side of the ball, I expect this trend to continue; when taking into account all of the above factors I have to recommend a play on the Under.
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