Al DeMarco
Monday's Play
30 Dime - Minnesota Vikings
Note - As I expected, the public has made its move on Minnesota, pushing this line up slightly by 1/2 point, up to 4 most places with a few 4 1/2's floating around. Obviously the key is shopping for the best price, but no matter the case, buy down the 1/2 point whether you get this game at 4, 4 1/2 (or 3 1/2 if you're lucky). My regular followers know I'm a firm believer in buying down on or around 4 because of the number of games that end 31-27, 28-24, 24-20, 17-13, 14-10, etc. And that's a trend that has only escalated over the years since the advent of the two-point conversion and its successful deployment.
Strip away all the media hype surrounding Brett Favre's first encounter as a Viking with his former employers, and you have simply have two teams ready to do battle tonight. The host is favored by anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously, when lines are first announced on Sunday night, I handicap all the games and give them a projected line which I then compare to the actual posted price in Vegas. My line on tonight's game: Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see why this play on the Vikings is rated so highly as the line - in my estimation - is still off by a field goal.
Much was made of Green Bay's success during the preseason, a time where its offense was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by veteran coordinator Dom Capers was providing immediate dividends. I watched their games and fell for the hype as well, forgetting that the preseason is simply four meaningless exhibition games primarily featuring second- and third-stringers. Yet in Week One, I was on the Packers as a 15 dime release in their home opener against Chicago and if not for a miracle 51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes, I would have lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Green Bay followed its opening win against Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis club on the road a week ago. But red flags abound for the Packers, namely poor offensive line play and a defense that's been unable to stop the run or generate an adequate pass rush.
Rodgers has had precious little time in the pocket as he's already been sacked 12 times, hitting the deck a total of 10 times in the games against the Bears and Bengals. And his starting left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time decision for this contest because of a sprained ankle. With or without his left tackle, Rodgers must contend with a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in the league overall with a 259.7 yard average yield. The Vikings, who were the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have also picked up eight sacks in the season's first three weeks with Jared Allen (two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading the way.
Defensively, Capers new 3-4 scheme hasn't been able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it has accounted for only five sacks in three weeks of action. And the Packers have been vulnerable to the run; the Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau in week two. That same unit is now tasked with trying to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who has gained 357 yards on the season. In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome, Peterson ran for 192 yards.
Forget the trends and ATS angles in this one; Minnesota is simply the more talented team and that's the reason I had them pegged as a TD favorite in this contest at the outset. The discrepancy between my projected price and the actual number in Vegas is what gives weight to my belief that the Vikings win comfortably, making Favre's first shot against his former mates this season a successful one.
Monday's Play
30 Dime - Minnesota Vikings
Note - As I expected, the public has made its move on Minnesota, pushing this line up slightly by 1/2 point, up to 4 most places with a few 4 1/2's floating around. Obviously the key is shopping for the best price, but no matter the case, buy down the 1/2 point whether you get this game at 4, 4 1/2 (or 3 1/2 if you're lucky). My regular followers know I'm a firm believer in buying down on or around 4 because of the number of games that end 31-27, 28-24, 24-20, 17-13, 14-10, etc. And that's a trend that has only escalated over the years since the advent of the two-point conversion and its successful deployment.
Strip away all the media hype surrounding Brett Favre's first encounter as a Viking with his former employers, and you have simply have two teams ready to do battle tonight. The host is favored by anywhere from 4 to 4 1/2 points. As I've noted previously, when lines are first announced on Sunday night, I handicap all the games and give them a projected line which I then compare to the actual posted price in Vegas. My line on tonight's game: Minnesota -7 to -7 1/2. Now you see why this play on the Vikings is rated so highly as the line - in my estimation - is still off by a field goal.
Much was made of Green Bay's success during the preseason, a time where its offense was unstoppable and the new 3-4 defensive scheme installed by veteran coordinator Dom Capers was providing immediate dividends. I watched their games and fell for the hype as well, forgetting that the preseason is simply four meaningless exhibition games primarily featuring second- and third-stringers. Yet in Week One, I was on the Packers as a 15 dime release in their home opener against Chicago and if not for a miracle 51-yard TD pass by Aaron Rodgers in the final two minutes, I would have lost in a game in which the Bears thoroughly dominated on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
Green Bay followed its opening win against Chicago by losing at home to Cincinnati and then trouncing a woeful St. Louis club on the road a week ago. But red flags abound for the Packers, namely poor offensive line play and a defense that's been unable to stop the run or generate an adequate pass rush.
Rodgers has had precious little time in the pocket as he's already been sacked 12 times, hitting the deck a total of 10 times in the games against the Bears and Bengals. And his starting left tackle, Chad Clifton, is a game-time decision for this contest because of a sprained ankle. With or without his left tackle, Rodgers must contend with a Minnesota defense ranked fourth in the league overall with a 259.7 yard average yield. The Vikings, who were the No. 1 team in the NFL at stopping the run from the 2006-08 seasons, have also picked up eight sacks in the season's first three weeks with Jared Allen (two sacks, two forced fumbles) leading the way.
Defensively, Capers new 3-4 scheme hasn't been able to reach the likes of Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer or Marc Bulger as it has accounted for only five sacks in three weeks of action. And the Packers have been vulnerable to the run; the Bengals Cedric Benson shredded them for 141 yards on 29 carries at Lambeau in week two. That same unit is now tasked with trying to stop the NFL's leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, who has gained 357 yards on the season. In Green Bay's last visit to the Metrodome, Peterson ran for 192 yards.
Forget the trends and ATS angles in this one; Minnesota is simply the more talented team and that's the reason I had them pegged as a TD favorite in this contest at the outset. The discrepancy between my projected price and the actual number in Vegas is what gives weight to my belief that the Vikings win comfortably, making Favre's first shot against his former mates this season a successful one.
DUNKEL NHL
NY Rangers at New Jersey
The Rangers look to build on their 14-5 record in the last 19 meeting between the two teams. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+125). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 51-52: NY Rangers at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.695; New Jersey 11.553
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+125); Under
Game 53-54: Columbus at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.676; Vancouver 11.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-165); Over
NY Rangers at New Jersey
The Rangers look to build on their 14-5 record in the last 19 meeting between the two teams. New York is the pick (+125) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+125). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST
Game 51-52: NY Rangers at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.695; New Jersey 11.553
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+125); Under
Game 53-54: Columbus at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Columbus 10.676; Vancouver 11.541
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-165); Over
Matty Baiungo
Packers (+3½) over @Vikings
This game will be discussed ad nauseum all week because it's Brent Favre facing the Packers for the first time since he was traded. So let's just get this little Favre snippet out of the way first. When Packers general manager Ted Thompson wouldn't grant Favre his release and instead traded Favre, he was adamant about not trading Favre within the division. So when Thompson made the deal with the Jets, he included a "poison pill" provision that would have forced the Jets to give up three firstround draft choices if they traded Favre to any other NFC North team. After his release from the Jets, Favre was free
and signed with the Vikings two weeks into camp. Now the Packers have to deal with the "poison pill" coming back to haunt them. And we're sure Favre will use this to fuel his fire even more. But we like what Packers head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters when asked about Favre and the "poison pill": "Keep it about the football game." Green Bay's defense was dreadful a season ago, and as a result, five coaches were fired. Dom Capers is now the new defensive coordinator and his 3-4 scheme has made a difference so far. After three games, the Packers are allowing less than 4 yards per rush compared to last year's 4.67 yards per rush average. They will get the acid test this week facing Adrian Peterson who gashed them for 192 and 103 yards in the two meetings a season ago. We'll learn if Capers' improvement is for real, or if it's just a result of the opponents they've faced. Coming into the season, Green Bay's offense was the least of their worries. But after three games, the offense hasn't been good at all. A lot of that has to do with their shuffled offensive line, but Chad Clifton is expected back this week which will get things going. And with this game being played a day later on Monday night, it makes Clifton's return more likely according to fellow lineman Daryn Colledge: "This is an important game to him and an important game to our season. I think he knows that and I would expect Chad to be back." Minnesota's offense looks like the real deal thus far. They finally have complimentary pieces to go with Adrian Peterson, and rookie Percy Harvin has proven to be a game changer with a touchdown in all three games. But there's something to be aware of. In all three of their games, the Vikings were trailing at the half. They've needed to make comebacks, and they've exploded in the second half out-scoring their opponents by a 58-20 margin. They can't expect to do that every week, especially here against a Packers defense that is tied for the league lead with 9 takeaways. Plus Green Bay's offense has way too many weapons to keep down, and we expect to see significant improvement from them here. Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are a solid 12-6 against the spread as a road underdog. His Packers are also perfect at Minnesota going 3-0 to the number with 2 wins and a 1- point loss. This divisional game is close throughout with the dog winning it late.
Packers by 3
Packers (+3½) over @Vikings
This game will be discussed ad nauseum all week because it's Brent Favre facing the Packers for the first time since he was traded. So let's just get this little Favre snippet out of the way first. When Packers general manager Ted Thompson wouldn't grant Favre his release and instead traded Favre, he was adamant about not trading Favre within the division. So when Thompson made the deal with the Jets, he included a "poison pill" provision that would have forced the Jets to give up three firstround draft choices if they traded Favre to any other NFC North team. After his release from the Jets, Favre was free
and signed with the Vikings two weeks into camp. Now the Packers have to deal with the "poison pill" coming back to haunt them. And we're sure Favre will use this to fuel his fire even more. But we like what Packers head coach Mike McCarthy told reporters when asked about Favre and the "poison pill": "Keep it about the football game." Green Bay's defense was dreadful a season ago, and as a result, five coaches were fired. Dom Capers is now the new defensive coordinator and his 3-4 scheme has made a difference so far. After three games, the Packers are allowing less than 4 yards per rush compared to last year's 4.67 yards per rush average. They will get the acid test this week facing Adrian Peterson who gashed them for 192 and 103 yards in the two meetings a season ago. We'll learn if Capers' improvement is for real, or if it's just a result of the opponents they've faced. Coming into the season, Green Bay's offense was the least of their worries. But after three games, the offense hasn't been good at all. A lot of that has to do with their shuffled offensive line, but Chad Clifton is expected back this week which will get things going. And with this game being played a day later on Monday night, it makes Clifton's return more likely according to fellow lineman Daryn Colledge: "This is an important game to him and an important game to our season. I think he knows that and I would expect Chad to be back." Minnesota's offense looks like the real deal thus far. They finally have complimentary pieces to go with Adrian Peterson, and rookie Percy Harvin has proven to be a game changer with a touchdown in all three games. But there's something to be aware of. In all three of their games, the Vikings were trailing at the half. They've needed to make comebacks, and they've exploded in the second half out-scoring their opponents by a 58-20 margin. They can't expect to do that every week, especially here against a Packers defense that is tied for the league lead with 9 takeaways. Plus Green Bay's offense has way too many weapons to keep down, and we expect to see significant improvement from them here. Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are a solid 12-6 against the spread as a road underdog. His Packers are also perfect at Minnesota going 3-0 to the number with 2 wins and a 1- point loss. This divisional game is close throughout with the dog winning it late.
Packers by 3
Nelly's Greensheet
MINNESOTA (-3) Green Bay (46) 7:30 PM
The Vikings have really not been that impressive offensively this season averaging just 318
yards per game. The Vikings have however come through when it counts to deliver a 3-0 start.
Defensively the Vikings have some of the best numbers in the league but they have faced
three marginal offensive teams and this will be by far the biggest threat against a defense that
has looked more vulnerable than the past few seasons. The Packers have had great success
in the underdog role in this series and this will be a much bigger game for the Packers than for
most of the Vikings with one small exception. Green Bay has shown a lot of problems against
the run which makes this appear like a bad match-up but the Packers have some key play -
makers in the secondary that could take advantage of potential mistakes. Minnesota’s home
field edge is not as significant when the Packers are in town and this should be tight game
that the Packers have the chance to take.
PACKERS BY 3
MINNESOTA (-3) Green Bay (46) 7:30 PM
The Vikings have really not been that impressive offensively this season averaging just 318
yards per game. The Vikings have however come through when it counts to deliver a 3-0 start.
Defensively the Vikings have some of the best numbers in the league but they have faced
three marginal offensive teams and this will be by far the biggest threat against a defense that
has looked more vulnerable than the past few seasons. The Packers have had great success
in the underdog role in this series and this will be a much bigger game for the Packers than for
most of the Vikings with one small exception. Green Bay has shown a lot of problems against
the run which makes this appear like a bad match-up but the Packers have some key play -
makers in the secondary that could take advantage of potential mistakes. Minnesota’s home
field edge is not as significant when the Packers are in town and this should be tight game
that the Packers have the chance to take.
PACKERS BY 3
Power Plays
Aside from the Jets/Patriots game in Wk 2 this is the most anticipated game of 2009. The media will
be all over the QB battle here. Rocgers bounced back from a bad game vs CIN with 269 yds (57%)
with 2 TD’s in a 36-17 win over STL. Favre added another late comeback to his legacy with a 32 yd TD
pass for the win with 2 seconds left. Who will win the 1st battle of the Brent Favre grudge match?
NO PLAY
VIKINGS 31 PACKERS 21
Aside from the Jets/Patriots game in Wk 2 this is the most anticipated game of 2009. The media will
be all over the QB battle here. Rocgers bounced back from a bad game vs CIN with 269 yds (57%)
with 2 TD’s in a 36-17 win over STL. Favre added another late comeback to his legacy with a 32 yd TD
pass for the win with 2 seconds left. Who will win the 1st battle of the Brent Favre grudge match?
NO PLAY
VIKINGS 31 PACKERS 21
Sports Book Breakers
Newsletter Side Play
4-Star Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
In maybe the most
anticipated game of the year so far, the Packers travel to Minnesota
on Monday night to take on their former legend, Brett Farve, and
the rival Vikings. Due to the Minnesota hype and perfect 3-0 mark,
you are getting the better team, with the better quarterback, as more
than a field goal underdog.
So far this season, the arguably better team has been an underdog
twice in prime-time football; Week 2 with the Giants over Cowboys
and week 3 with the Colts facing Arizona. Each time that team not
only covered, but won outright.
The Packers have not been intimidated by facing divisional opponents
on the road in the recent past. The Packers are 8-0 ATS (10.8
ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent
as no more than a TD favorite Also, the Packers are 8-0-1 ATS (10.8
ppg) since November 06, 2000 as a dog when facing a divisional
opponent that has more wins than them
Last week, Green Bay cruised to a 36-17 win over St. Louis, while
attempting only 23 passes. The League is 11-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since
November 26, 2007 as a dog the week after on the road in which they
attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average
Minnesota been very conservative through the air so far this
year, finally busting out for 301 yards last week. The Vikings are
0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since October 04, 1992 as a favorite when they
passed for at least 100 more yards last week than their season-todate
average Vikings were 7-pt favorites over San Fran last week and are
0-9 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2007 after playing at home
as a favorite
Finally, Minnesota did not have a single goal-to-go against the
49ers last week. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS (-5.6 ppg) as a favorite
after being a favorite the previous week and not having a goal to go
attempt.
The Vikings needed a miracle play to beat the 49ers at home last
week. Green Bay is far superior to San Francisco.
Green Bay 24, MINNESOTA 21
Newsletter Side Play
4-Star Green Bay (+3.5) over MINNESOTA
In maybe the most
anticipated game of the year so far, the Packers travel to Minnesota
on Monday night to take on their former legend, Brett Farve, and
the rival Vikings. Due to the Minnesota hype and perfect 3-0 mark,
you are getting the better team, with the better quarterback, as more
than a field goal underdog.
So far this season, the arguably better team has been an underdog
twice in prime-time football; Week 2 with the Giants over Cowboys
and week 3 with the Colts facing Arizona. Each time that team not
only covered, but won outright.
The Packers have not been intimidated by facing divisional opponents
on the road in the recent past. The Packers are 8-0 ATS (10.8
ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent
as no more than a TD favorite Also, the Packers are 8-0-1 ATS (10.8
ppg) since November 06, 2000 as a dog when facing a divisional
opponent that has more wins than them
Last week, Green Bay cruised to a 36-17 win over St. Louis, while
attempting only 23 passes. The League is 11-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since
November 26, 2007 as a dog the week after on the road in which they
attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average
Minnesota been very conservative through the air so far this
year, finally busting out for 301 yards last week. The Vikings are
0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since October 04, 1992 as a favorite when they
passed for at least 100 more yards last week than their season-todate
average Vikings were 7-pt favorites over San Fran last week and are
0-9 ATS (-6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2007 after playing at home
as a favorite
Finally, Minnesota did not have a single goal-to-go against the
49ers last week. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS (-5.6 ppg) as a favorite
after being a favorite the previous week and not having a goal to go
attempt.
The Vikings needed a miracle play to beat the 49ers at home last
week. Green Bay is far superior to San Francisco.
Green Bay 24, MINNESOTA 21
Sean Michaels
Sean Michaels Monday's Pick 25 DIME PLAY
Vikings
Buy down the half-point on Minnesota if your line is 3 1/2, 4 or 4 1/2.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
Sean Michaels Monday's Pick 25 DIME PLAY
Vikings
Buy down the half-point on Minnesota if your line is 3 1/2, 4 or 4 1/2.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED------------GL GUYS
Stephen Nover
Monday's Winner 50-Dime Minnesota Vikings
WEEKEND RECAP - I went 3-2 on my Saturday college plays and 3-2 on Sunday in my NFL selections. However, I lost units because my top plays both lost.
Each of my free picks won with Arkansas easily beating Texas A&M on Saturday and the Saints covering against the Jets on Sunday.
The Titans failed to cover for the second week in a row. They were my top play each time. I also made the mistake of laying more than a field goal with the Redskins. I won my lone totals play, getting an easy over win on the Lions-Bears and cashed with the Dolphins, who easily defeated Buffalo.
But enough of that, there's no time to delay. Let's get to this top-rated play for Monday night.
50-Dime Minnesota Vikings - To really like a game strong you have to have multiple factors working. That's certainly the case in this matchup with Minnesota.
The Packers have a soft run defense. It was exposed last week by Steven Jackson even though Green Bay was keying on him. Jackson is excellent, but Adrian Peterson is the best. He's averaged 113 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in four games against the Packers.
Brett Favre will be getting all the attention, but Peterson is the guy the Packers have to stop. I don't see that happening. The Packers couldn't stop him before when he didn't have a respectable threat behind center. Now Peterson has this with Favre. The velocity and touch are still there for Favre. The important thing is he's committed just one turnovers. He's getting more in sync with his wide receivers. No one will be pumped more for this matchup than Favre.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been breaking the pocket too fast because of offensive line breakdowns. The Packers are going to have problems stopping Minnesota up front.
Ryan Grant is strictly a straight-ahead runner with no moves or juke. The Vikings are the toughest team to run against in the NFC. Grant is going to get nothing, so the Vikings will be coming hard on Rodgers.
The Packers' offensive line has played miserable this season. Their best offensive lineman, left tackle Chad Clifton, won't play because of an ankle injury. The Packers are really going to struggle against Minnesota's pass rush. This is going to be magnified playing in the noisy Metrodome where opponents frequently jump offsides because they can't hear.
Daryn Colledge will be protecting Rodgers' blind side, taking Clifton's place at left tackle. Colledge is not a left tackle. This is a stop-gap measure that isn't going to work in this setting. Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are going to easily control the line of scrimmage.
The Packers peaked in August. This is their first opponent that made the playoffs last season. The Packers' offensive line and defense, making the conversion to a 3-4, isn't ready for this opponent in this setting. The timing is wrong for Green Bay right now.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
Monday's Winner 50-Dime Minnesota Vikings
WEEKEND RECAP - I went 3-2 on my Saturday college plays and 3-2 on Sunday in my NFL selections. However, I lost units because my top plays both lost.
Each of my free picks won with Arkansas easily beating Texas A&M on Saturday and the Saints covering against the Jets on Sunday.
The Titans failed to cover for the second week in a row. They were my top play each time. I also made the mistake of laying more than a field goal with the Redskins. I won my lone totals play, getting an easy over win on the Lions-Bears and cashed with the Dolphins, who easily defeated Buffalo.
But enough of that, there's no time to delay. Let's get to this top-rated play for Monday night.
50-Dime Minnesota Vikings - To really like a game strong you have to have multiple factors working. That's certainly the case in this matchup with Minnesota.
The Packers have a soft run defense. It was exposed last week by Steven Jackson even though Green Bay was keying on him. Jackson is excellent, but Adrian Peterson is the best. He's averaged 113 yards and 6.3 yards per carry in four games against the Packers.
Brett Favre will be getting all the attention, but Peterson is the guy the Packers have to stop. I don't see that happening. The Packers couldn't stop him before when he didn't have a respectable threat behind center. Now Peterson has this with Favre. The velocity and touch are still there for Favre. The important thing is he's committed just one turnovers. He's getting more in sync with his wide receivers. No one will be pumped more for this matchup than Favre.
On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been breaking the pocket too fast because of offensive line breakdowns. The Packers are going to have problems stopping Minnesota up front.
Ryan Grant is strictly a straight-ahead runner with no moves or juke. The Vikings are the toughest team to run against in the NFC. Grant is going to get nothing, so the Vikings will be coming hard on Rodgers.
The Packers' offensive line has played miserable this season. Their best offensive lineman, left tackle Chad Clifton, won't play because of an ankle injury. The Packers are really going to struggle against Minnesota's pass rush. This is going to be magnified playing in the noisy Metrodome where opponents frequently jump offsides because they can't hear.
Daryn Colledge will be protecting Rodgers' blind side, taking Clifton's place at left tackle. Colledge is not a left tackle. This is a stop-gap measure that isn't going to work in this setting. Jared Allen, Kevin Williams and Pat Williams are going to easily control the line of scrimmage.
The Packers peaked in August. This is their first opponent that made the playoffs last season. The Packers' offensive line and defense, making the conversion to a 3-4, isn't ready for this opponent in this setting. The timing is wrong for Green Bay right now.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
NFL
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Brett Favre makes his much-anticipated first-ever start against his former team when the Packers visit the Metrodome for a matchup against the Vikings.
After 15 seasons with Green Bay, Favre “retired” following the 2007 playoffs only to play the 2008 season with the Jets and “retire” again before signing with Minnesota in August. Now he faces the Packers, the team with whom he earned three consecutive league MVP awards and led to a Super Bowl title in the mid-1990s.
Green Bay has won five of the last six matchups in this rivalry, but Minnesota scored a 28-27 victory last November at home, falling short as a 2½-point favorite. The Packers have gotten the cash in four straight series clashes and five of six in Minnesota. Also, the underdog is 16-5 ATS over the past 10-plus seasons, and the road team has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Favre’s successor, Aaron Rodgers has the Packers at 2-1 after last week’s 36-17 road win in St. Louis, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Rodgers passed for 269 yards and two TDs against the Rams while RB Ryan Grant contributed 99 rushing yards. Rodgers has thrown for 714 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions this season.
Favre has the Vikings shooting for their first 4-0 start since 2003 after his amazing 32-yard, game-winning touchdown pass with two seconds left to beat the Niners 27-24 last Sunday in his home opener. However, after cashing in the first two games on the road, Minnesota came up short as a seven-point favorite versus San Frnacisco. Favre has thrown for 566 yards with five TDs and one INT as a Viking.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS runs, including 15-5-1 on the road, 3-1-1 in October, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-1 against NFC North foes and 4-1 against teams with winning records.
Minnesota comes into this as a betting risk, currently on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-4 in Week 4 games, 1-4 against the NFC, 1-4 in October, 2-6 against division rivals and 3-11 after a SU win.
Under the Monday night spotlight, Green Bay is 26-27-1 SU (29-24-1 ATS), while the Vikings are 24-24 SU (23-24-1 ATS) all time.
The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 20-6-1 against NFC squads, 7-3 against division rivals and 5-2-1 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, the Vikings are on “under” streaks of 4-1 against the NFC, 8-3 on Monday and 28-13-1 after a SU win. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in 12 of 18 meetings overall and seven of nine in Minnesota.
Finally, the four of the first five Monday Night Football games this season have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
MONDAY, OCTOBER 5
NFL
Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
Brett Favre makes his much-anticipated first-ever start against his former team when the Packers visit the Metrodome for a matchup against the Vikings.
After 15 seasons with Green Bay, Favre “retired” following the 2007 playoffs only to play the 2008 season with the Jets and “retire” again before signing with Minnesota in August. Now he faces the Packers, the team with whom he earned three consecutive league MVP awards and led to a Super Bowl title in the mid-1990s.
Green Bay has won five of the last six matchups in this rivalry, but Minnesota scored a 28-27 victory last November at home, falling short as a 2½-point favorite. The Packers have gotten the cash in four straight series clashes and five of six in Minnesota. Also, the underdog is 16-5 ATS over the past 10-plus seasons, and the road team has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings.
Favre’s successor, Aaron Rodgers has the Packers at 2-1 after last week’s 36-17 road win in St. Louis, cashing as a 6½-point road favorite. Rodgers passed for 269 yards and two TDs against the Rams while RB Ryan Grant contributed 99 rushing yards. Rodgers has thrown for 714 yards with four touchdown passes and no interceptions this season.
Favre has the Vikings shooting for their first 4-0 start since 2003 after his amazing 32-yard, game-winning touchdown pass with two seconds left to beat the Niners 27-24 last Sunday in his home opener. However, after cashing in the first two games on the road, Minnesota came up short as a seven-point favorite versus San Frnacisco. Favre has thrown for 566 yards with five TDs and one INT as a Viking.
Green Bay is on several positive ATS runs, including 15-5-1 on the road, 3-1-1 in October, 5-1 as an underdog, 7-1 against NFC North foes and 4-1 against teams with winning records.
Minnesota comes into this as a betting risk, currently on ATS slides of 0-4 at home, 0-4 in Week 4 games, 1-4 against the NFC, 1-4 in October, 2-6 against division rivals and 3-11 after a SU win.
Under the Monday night spotlight, Green Bay is 26-27-1 SU (29-24-1 ATS), while the Vikings are 24-24 SU (23-24-1 ATS) all time.
The Packers are on a plethora of “over” runs, including 20-7-1 overall, 10-3-1 on the road, 20-6-1 against NFC squads, 7-3 against division rivals and 5-2-1 as a road ‘dog. Conversely, the Vikings are on “under” streaks of 4-1 against the NFC, 8-3 on Monday and 28-13-1 after a SU win. In this rivalry, the “over” has been the play in 12 of 18 meetings overall and seven of nine in Minnesota.
Finally, the four of the first five Monday Night Football games this season have topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER
rated picks
NHL:
NHL 10/05 NY Rangers at New Jersey Devils pick: New Jersey Devils pts: -120 3 units
NHL 10/05 Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks pick: *BIG PLAY* Vancouver Canucks pts: -150 5 units
NFL Monday Night Football:
NFL 10/05 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings pick: Minnesota Vikings pts: -3.5 3 units
NHL:
NHL 10/05 NY Rangers at New Jersey Devils pick: New Jersey Devils pts: -120 3 units
NHL 10/05 Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks pick: *BIG PLAY* Vancouver Canucks pts: -150 5 units
NFL Monday Night Football:
NFL 10/05 Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings pick: Minnesota Vikings pts: -3.5 3 units
