NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Week 4 NFL Capsules
By VegasInsider
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1) At MIAMI (2-1)
Monday, 8:20 p.m., ESPN
OPENING LINE - Pick-em
RECORD VS. SPREAD - New England 1-2; Miami 2-1
SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 50-39
LAST MEETING - Dolphins beat Patriots 22-21, Dec. 6, 2009
LAST WEEK - Dolphins lost to Jets 31-23; Patriots beat Bills 38-30
PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (10), PASS (10)
PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (20), PASS (25)
DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (15), PASS (18)
DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (19), PASS (9)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Teams split series five of past six years, including in 2008 and 2009. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 11-11 against Dolphins. ... Patriots 11-33 at Miami. ... Dolphins RB Ricky Williams and Patriots G Stephen Neal wrestled against each other in high school in San Diego. ... Patriots lead NFL with 90 points. They're fourth-worst in points allowed at 82. ... Patriots have converted 21 of 36 third-down situations (58 percent), best in NFL. ...Tom Brady has more turnovers against Dolphins than against any other team. In 16 games against Miami, he has lost four fumbles and thrown 16 interceptions. ... Wes Welker has 47 catches for 613 yards in six games against Miami, his former team. ... Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski has made only 2 of 5 field-goal tries. ... With fourth career 300-yard game last week, Chad Henne ranks second in Dolphins history to Dan Marino, who reached the milestone 63 times. ... Miami's Brandon Marshall on pace for 117 catches. ... FB Lousaka Polite is 4 for 4 this year converting third- or fourth-and-1 situations. Last year he was 17 for 17.
Week 4 NFL Capsules
By VegasInsider
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-1) At MIAMI (2-1)
Monday, 8:20 p.m., ESPN
OPENING LINE - Pick-em
RECORD VS. SPREAD - New England 1-2; Miami 2-1
SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 50-39
LAST MEETING - Dolphins beat Patriots 22-21, Dec. 6, 2009
LAST WEEK - Dolphins lost to Jets 31-23; Patriots beat Bills 38-30
PATRIOTS OFFENSE - OVERALL (7), RUSH (10), PASS (10)
PATRIOTS DEFENSE - OVERALL (27), RUSH (20), PASS (25)
DOLPHINS OFFENSE - OVERALL (18), RUSH (15), PASS (18)
DOLPHINS DEFENSE - OVERALL (12), RUSH (19), PASS (9)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Teams split series five of past six years, including in 2008 and 2009. Patriots coach Bill Belichick is 11-11 against Dolphins. ... Patriots 11-33 at Miami. ... Dolphins RB Ricky Williams and Patriots G Stephen Neal wrestled against each other in high school in San Diego. ... Patriots lead NFL with 90 points. They're fourth-worst in points allowed at 82. ... Patriots have converted 21 of 36 third-down situations (58 percent), best in NFL. ...Tom Brady has more turnovers against Dolphins than against any other team. In 16 games against Miami, he has lost four fumbles and thrown 16 interceptions. ... Wes Welker has 47 catches for 613 yards in six games against Miami, his former team. ... Patriots' Stephen Gostkowski has made only 2 of 5 field-goal tries. ... With fourth career 300-yard game last week, Chad Henne ranks second in Dolphins history to Dan Marino, who reached the milestone 63 times. ... Miami's Brandon Marshall on pace for 117 catches. ... FB Lousaka Polite is 4 for 4 this year converting third- or fourth-and-1 situations. Last year he was 17 for 17.
NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Patriots at Dolphins: What Bettors Need To Know
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1, 47.5)
Current Odds
A few sportsbooks opened the line at pick’em last week, but the line quickly rose to make the Patriots -1 point favorites by the time most other sportsbooks posted a number.
New England has a 52 percent chance of winning the game straight-up as they are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline. This line might go up on Monday evening since 62 percent of the Covers.com consensus is backing the Patriots.
The over/under line opened around 46 total points last week and briefly dropped down to 45 points in some locations before rising back up to the current line of 47.5. The Covers.com consensus has 57 percent favoring the over, however the line might drop lower on Monday night due to the weather conditions.
The weather forecast is calling for 30 percent chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening, but only a 20 percent chance of showers at kickoff. Temperatures will be around 75 degrees with a light wind around 15 mph.
Dolphins Hurtin’
Miami will be without defensive end Jared Odrick and guard John Jerry due to injuries. Linebacker Channing Crowder is listed as doubtful. He was limited in practice yesterday and has yet to play this season because of a groin injury.
Offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) and reserve cornerback Nolan Carroll (hand) are probable. Both participated in practice this past week.
Running Wounded
The Patriots will be without running back Fred Taylor, a reality they prepared for all last week. Taylor, who has been battling a toe injury for two weeks, missed his fourth consecutive practice and the team officially ruled him out shortly afterward.
This means Miami will see plenty of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who impressed last week with 98 yards rushing against the Bills after gaining just 41 total rushing yards combined against the Bengals and Jets. Green-Ellis is a third-year running back from the University of Mississippi and totaled only 114 rushing yards in 12 games last season.
The Patriots no longer have running back Laurence Maroney, who is now playing for the Denver Broncos and led the Patriots with 759 rushing yards last season. So far this year, Green-Ellis leads the team with 139 rushing yards, followed by the injured Fred Taylor who has 98 yards.
Patriot Defense
New England’s defense has been abysmal so far this season. In three games, the Patriots have allowed a whopping 82 points to some suspect offensive teams like the Bengals, Jets and Bills. Those three teams have scored a total of 174 points combined going into Sunday, which means almost half of their total points scored came against the Patriots.
Despite the criticism, the Patriots are still confident that their defense isn’t as weak as many believe and they expect to play much better on Monday night in Miami.
“We’re staying focused and doing our job,” cornerback Jonathan Wilhite said.
Jerod Mayo said everybody “has words to say,” but in the end, it all comes down to performance.
“Everybody’s accountable for themselves,” said Mayo, a linebacker and a captain. “We’re just not playing like we need to play. Hopefully Monday, we come out and perform. Big stage.”
Head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t seem too worried about his stop unit either.
“The defense has practiced well,” he said. “There are always game day challenges, but their work and preparation has been good. I don’t have any problems with that.”
The Sparano’s
Miami’s offense should be salivating at its opportunity to face the New England defense. The Dolphins have played much better at home under head coach Tony Sparano. Last year, the Dolphins scored 20 points or more in every home game while going over the total in seven of their eight home games.
And that trend continued last week when the Dolphins scored 23 points against the Jets in their home loss last Sunday night. That game also went over the total of 35.5 after a whopping 54 points were scored. Miami has scored 22 and 28 points at home against New England the last two meetings in South Florida.
The Grass Is Greener
The Dolphins share Sun Life Stadium with the Florida Marlins. But the Marlins season wraps up on Sunday and the plans are for the grounds crew to cover up the dirt infield with fresh grass before Monday night’s game. If they can do it before the expected rain hits, it will be the first time since 1993 that the Dolphins won't have to play any home games on the infield dirt.
"If that happens, that would be super," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said.
But with inclement weather expected in Florida, Sparano practiced his team on the dirt and some mud this week in case the bad weather hits and the game is played in a slop of mud.
The Dolphins played a preseason game in that exact situation against the Buccaneers, a game that had just a total of 17 points scored.
Patriots at Dolphins: What Bettors Need To Know
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1, 47.5)
Current Odds
A few sportsbooks opened the line at pick’em last week, but the line quickly rose to make the Patriots -1 point favorites by the time most other sportsbooks posted a number.
New England has a 52 percent chance of winning the game straight-up as they are a slight -115 favorite on the moneyline. This line might go up on Monday evening since 62 percent of the Covers.com consensus is backing the Patriots.
The over/under line opened around 46 total points last week and briefly dropped down to 45 points in some locations before rising back up to the current line of 47.5. The Covers.com consensus has 57 percent favoring the over, however the line might drop lower on Monday night due to the weather conditions.
The weather forecast is calling for 30 percent chance of rain during the afternoon and early evening, but only a 20 percent chance of showers at kickoff. Temperatures will be around 75 degrees with a light wind around 15 mph.
Dolphins Hurtin’
Miami will be without defensive end Jared Odrick and guard John Jerry due to injuries. Linebacker Channing Crowder is listed as doubtful. He was limited in practice yesterday and has yet to play this season because of a groin injury.
Offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) and reserve cornerback Nolan Carroll (hand) are probable. Both participated in practice this past week.
Running Wounded
The Patriots will be without running back Fred Taylor, a reality they prepared for all last week. Taylor, who has been battling a toe injury for two weeks, missed his fourth consecutive practice and the team officially ruled him out shortly afterward.
This means Miami will see plenty of BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who impressed last week with 98 yards rushing against the Bills after gaining just 41 total rushing yards combined against the Bengals and Jets. Green-Ellis is a third-year running back from the University of Mississippi and totaled only 114 rushing yards in 12 games last season.
The Patriots no longer have running back Laurence Maroney, who is now playing for the Denver Broncos and led the Patriots with 759 rushing yards last season. So far this year, Green-Ellis leads the team with 139 rushing yards, followed by the injured Fred Taylor who has 98 yards.
Patriot Defense
New England’s defense has been abysmal so far this season. In three games, the Patriots have allowed a whopping 82 points to some suspect offensive teams like the Bengals, Jets and Bills. Those three teams have scored a total of 174 points combined going into Sunday, which means almost half of their total points scored came against the Patriots.
Despite the criticism, the Patriots are still confident that their defense isn’t as weak as many believe and they expect to play much better on Monday night in Miami.
“We’re staying focused and doing our job,” cornerback Jonathan Wilhite said.
Jerod Mayo said everybody “has words to say,” but in the end, it all comes down to performance.
“Everybody’s accountable for themselves,” said Mayo, a linebacker and a captain. “We’re just not playing like we need to play. Hopefully Monday, we come out and perform. Big stage.”
Head coach Bill Belichick doesn’t seem too worried about his stop unit either.
“The defense has practiced well,” he said. “There are always game day challenges, but their work and preparation has been good. I don’t have any problems with that.”
The Sparano’s
Miami’s offense should be salivating at its opportunity to face the New England defense. The Dolphins have played much better at home under head coach Tony Sparano. Last year, the Dolphins scored 20 points or more in every home game while going over the total in seven of their eight home games.
And that trend continued last week when the Dolphins scored 23 points against the Jets in their home loss last Sunday night. That game also went over the total of 35.5 after a whopping 54 points were scored. Miami has scored 22 and 28 points at home against New England the last two meetings in South Florida.
The Grass Is Greener
The Dolphins share Sun Life Stadium with the Florida Marlins. But the Marlins season wraps up on Sunday and the plans are for the grounds crew to cover up the dirt infield with fresh grass before Monday night’s game. If they can do it before the expected rain hits, it will be the first time since 1993 that the Dolphins won't have to play any home games on the infield dirt.
"If that happens, that would be super," Dolphins coach Tony Sparano said.
But with inclement weather expected in Florida, Sparano practiced his team on the dirt and some mud this week in case the bad weather hits and the game is played in a slop of mud.
The Dolphins played a preseason game in that exact situation against the Buccaneers, a game that had just a total of 17 points scored.
NFL NEWS AND NOTES
Patriots at Dolphins: Monday Night Debate
We should find out a lot about the AFC East after the Patriots-Dolphins Monday night battle. We grabbed bloggers for the Pats and Fish who gab about their teams everyday to help you gain the inside track for the big game.
New England Patriots Breakdown
Russ Loede from dedicated New England blog PatriotsGab.com gives us the goods on Tom Brady and Company.
Everyone knows about the issues New England is having with its secondary. Do you think coach Belichick will figure out a way to take some of the heat off of the unit?
It's unlikely with the hand he’s dealt: Kyle Arrington, a second-year guy undrafted from Hofstra, is starting at corner back in place of Darius Butler. Coming into this season, the team had high expectations for Butler, a 2nd round pick in '09. That doesn’t help their plan to match up Brandon Marshall and Steve Johnson.
On top of that, New England is still trying to make up for the loss of Leigh Bodden, a key contributor whom the team was counting upon to cover opponent's go-to No. 1 targets. And the team's other corner, Devin McCourty, is a rookie, so how much can you expect from him?
The Pats pass rush has been almost nonexistent and that’s usually a secondary’s best friend. Piling on the laundry list of uncertainties, rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes are being forced into action. It's hard to defend the pass over the middle of the field in a league where the tight ends continue getting more athletic, let alone with inexperienced linebackers having the assignment of matching up with these talented tight ends.
The combination of injuries, unprepared youngsters and an underachieving Butler has put a chink into Belichick's armor to contain the opposition's aerial display.
Creating a time of possession advantage will limit the amount of opportunities the secondary has to getting exposed. We need long, orchestrated, time-consuming touchdown marches by Tom Brady to help out the defense and secondary in particular.
While the Pats’ defense has seen better days, the team’s offense, outside one bad half against the Jets, looks almost as good as it did back in 2007. Can the Patriots still win a 13-7 slug-fest or does this team have to score 30 points every week to win?
If the defense persists on surrendering 27 points a game, its average, then the offense will have to put up 30. Tom Brady’s bunch has to play the role of hero every Sunday from here on out. Unless BenJarvus Green-Ellis turns into Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, or Craig James, the passing game will have to be flawless almost every week. Your 2010-2011 New England Patriots: "Get ready for a shootout boys".
Which matchup do you think New England will try to exploit early and often against Miami?
As improved as the Miami secondary is, Randy Moss will have his way with Vontae Davis. Davis is a serious, big-time athlete, but at 5-foot 11, he's giving up almost half a foot to Randy. I think the best matchup for the Pats, though, is Aaron Hernandez vs. Karlos Dansby. Hernandez is way too quick and shifty for Dansby, and you can expect Brady to look for his new toy from Florida early and often.
Hernandez is going to be a perennial Pro-Bowler for the next decade and he’ll sting the Fish worse than Dustin Keller did last week.
Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots 31, Miami Dolphins 23
Miami Dolphins Breakdown
Our Miami maniac Brant Houghton from DolphinsGab.com gives his insight about the Fish.
The media is suggesting Miami should scrap its wildcat package but coach Tony Sparano doesn’t seem ready to ditch the formation. What’s your take on the wildcat debate? Is Miami’s offense best served with quarterback Chad Henne on the field for every snap?Right now I have a mixed take on the Wildcat. The Dolphins use it as a power formation and to get both
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the field at the same time. It's not viewed as a trick play or anything like that by the Dolphins staff, but a power running formation and that’s the common misconception about the Dolphins use of the Wildcat.
But the Dolphins are running the same old plays out of it, which is why it is ineffective. When Henne is involved in the formation the plays can be more effective, but that also gives opposing defenders a chance to rough him up as soon as he crosses the line of scrimmage, because he becomes an eligible receiver, defenders can do whatever they want to him within the rules.
The Fish should keep rolling out the wildcat formation out until opponents show that they can stop it, and convince Miami's coaching staff that they need to get more innovative with their craft. I'm looking for them to unveil more creative Wildcat packages on Monday night, against their division rival.
The Dolphins have had great success against the Patriots in the Tom Brady era despite sporting less talented teams most of the time. Bettors know all about this (Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread it their last four games vs. Pats). Why do you think Miami plays so well against New England?
Divisional games in the AFC East are always closer than most people expect. The Dolphins are a tough team, and I think, despite their inability to win on a consistent basis throughout the decade, that when the Patriots came to town, anything is possible. We know these guys, and they know us.
Miami’s defensive secondary seems to be in a much better place now than it has been in years. Still, are you worried about Tom Brady picking on Jason Allen’s and exposing the struggling corner on Monday night?
Yes, I'm very worried about our secondary as a whole on Monday night. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league in my opinion. I am hearing, however, that Allen will be matched up on Randy Moss during the game, which scares me. I do not understand for the life of me why the Dolphins would not match up their best cornerback against the opposing team’s best wide receiver.
The Dolphins are allowing the offense to dictate the matchups, which does not favor us against the Patriots this week. Brady should target Allen, and his recent praise of Davis may indicate that he will try and go after Allen on Monday night. I know I would do just that.
What is the matchup the Dolphins have to win for them to beat the Patriots?
I think the matchup that the Dolphins have to win is Jason Allen vs. Randy Moss. Like I mentioned above, Moss is one of the best, as is Brady, and the two combined are a deadly combination. Allen needs to bounce back from last week’s disappointing performance.
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Pats 24
Patriots at Dolphins: Monday Night Debate
We should find out a lot about the AFC East after the Patriots-Dolphins Monday night battle. We grabbed bloggers for the Pats and Fish who gab about their teams everyday to help you gain the inside track for the big game.
New England Patriots Breakdown
Russ Loede from dedicated New England blog PatriotsGab.com gives us the goods on Tom Brady and Company.
Everyone knows about the issues New England is having with its secondary. Do you think coach Belichick will figure out a way to take some of the heat off of the unit?
It's unlikely with the hand he’s dealt: Kyle Arrington, a second-year guy undrafted from Hofstra, is starting at corner back in place of Darius Butler. Coming into this season, the team had high expectations for Butler, a 2nd round pick in '09. That doesn’t help their plan to match up Brandon Marshall and Steve Johnson.
On top of that, New England is still trying to make up for the loss of Leigh Bodden, a key contributor whom the team was counting upon to cover opponent's go-to No. 1 targets. And the team's other corner, Devin McCourty, is a rookie, so how much can you expect from him?
The Pats pass rush has been almost nonexistent and that’s usually a secondary’s best friend. Piling on the laundry list of uncertainties, rookies Jermaine Cunningham and Brandon Spikes are being forced into action. It's hard to defend the pass over the middle of the field in a league where the tight ends continue getting more athletic, let alone with inexperienced linebackers having the assignment of matching up with these talented tight ends.
The combination of injuries, unprepared youngsters and an underachieving Butler has put a chink into Belichick's armor to contain the opposition's aerial display.
Creating a time of possession advantage will limit the amount of opportunities the secondary has to getting exposed. We need long, orchestrated, time-consuming touchdown marches by Tom Brady to help out the defense and secondary in particular.
While the Pats’ defense has seen better days, the team’s offense, outside one bad half against the Jets, looks almost as good as it did back in 2007. Can the Patriots still win a 13-7 slug-fest or does this team have to score 30 points every week to win?
If the defense persists on surrendering 27 points a game, its average, then the offense will have to put up 30. Tom Brady’s bunch has to play the role of hero every Sunday from here on out. Unless BenJarvus Green-Ellis turns into Corey Dillon, Curtis Martin, or Craig James, the passing game will have to be flawless almost every week. Your 2010-2011 New England Patriots: "Get ready for a shootout boys".
Which matchup do you think New England will try to exploit early and often against Miami?
As improved as the Miami secondary is, Randy Moss will have his way with Vontae Davis. Davis is a serious, big-time athlete, but at 5-foot 11, he's giving up almost half a foot to Randy. I think the best matchup for the Pats, though, is Aaron Hernandez vs. Karlos Dansby. Hernandez is way too quick and shifty for Dansby, and you can expect Brady to look for his new toy from Florida early and often.
Hernandez is going to be a perennial Pro-Bowler for the next decade and he’ll sting the Fish worse than Dustin Keller did last week.
Final Score Prediction: New England Patriots 31, Miami Dolphins 23
Miami Dolphins Breakdown
Our Miami maniac Brant Houghton from DolphinsGab.com gives his insight about the Fish.
The media is suggesting Miami should scrap its wildcat package but coach Tony Sparano doesn’t seem ready to ditch the formation. What’s your take on the wildcat debate? Is Miami’s offense best served with quarterback Chad Henne on the field for every snap?Right now I have a mixed take on the Wildcat. The Dolphins use it as a power formation and to get both
Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams on the field at the same time. It's not viewed as a trick play or anything like that by the Dolphins staff, but a power running formation and that’s the common misconception about the Dolphins use of the Wildcat.
But the Dolphins are running the same old plays out of it, which is why it is ineffective. When Henne is involved in the formation the plays can be more effective, but that also gives opposing defenders a chance to rough him up as soon as he crosses the line of scrimmage, because he becomes an eligible receiver, defenders can do whatever they want to him within the rules.
The Fish should keep rolling out the wildcat formation out until opponents show that they can stop it, and convince Miami's coaching staff that they need to get more innovative with their craft. I'm looking for them to unveil more creative Wildcat packages on Monday night, against their division rival.
The Dolphins have had great success against the Patriots in the Tom Brady era despite sporting less talented teams most of the time. Bettors know all about this (Dolphins are 4-1 against the spread it their last four games vs. Pats). Why do you think Miami plays so well against New England?
Divisional games in the AFC East are always closer than most people expect. The Dolphins are a tough team, and I think, despite their inability to win on a consistent basis throughout the decade, that when the Patriots came to town, anything is possible. We know these guys, and they know us.
Miami’s defensive secondary seems to be in a much better place now than it has been in years. Still, are you worried about Tom Brady picking on Jason Allen’s and exposing the struggling corner on Monday night?
Yes, I'm very worried about our secondary as a whole on Monday night. Tom Brady is the best quarterback in the league in my opinion. I am hearing, however, that Allen will be matched up on Randy Moss during the game, which scares me. I do not understand for the life of me why the Dolphins would not match up their best cornerback against the opposing team’s best wide receiver.
The Dolphins are allowing the offense to dictate the matchups, which does not favor us against the Patriots this week. Brady should target Allen, and his recent praise of Davis may indicate that he will try and go after Allen on Monday night. I know I would do just that.
What is the matchup the Dolphins have to win for them to beat the Patriots?
I think the matchup that the Dolphins have to win is Jason Allen vs. Randy Moss. Like I mentioned above, Moss is one of the best, as is Brady, and the two combined are a deadly combination. Allen needs to bounce back from last week’s disappointing performance.
Final Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Pats 24
Hondo
Hondo rebounded beautifully from his Friday and Saturday wipeouts, hitting paydirt yesterday with the Jets, Chargers and Redskins to lower the dirty digits to 2,650 warfields.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will stick to what he knows best -- 10 units on the Fish to make life miserable for Tommy Boy and the Patsies.
Hondo rebounded beautifully from his Friday and Saturday wipeouts, hitting paydirt yesterday with the Jets, Chargers and Redskins to lower the dirty digits to 2,650 warfields.
Tonight, Mr. Aitch will stick to what he knows best -- 10 units on the Fish to make life miserable for Tommy Boy and the Patsies.
