Evan Altemus
Philadelphia vs. Washington
Everybody always talks about the buy low sell high concept with investing, and people love to relate that theory to sports betting. However, most people don’t understand what it means. They think it means just backing teams that aren’t very good, and they can’t get themselves to do this. However, that is not how you correctly the theory of buying low and selling high when it comes to sports betting. The key is to find situations where one team is being significantly mispriced based on their talent level. You don’t want to back complete dumpster fires facing good teams, but you want to look for situations where a team is capable of stepping up against a team that isn’t likely to bring a strong effort. Last week ESPN talked all week about how bad Washington is. They are not a very good football team, and they have problems that need to be resolved before they show steady improvement. However, the Redskins have routinely played up or down to their opponents over the last few years. Washington has faced several bad teams in a row, which I feel have caused the players to become lackadaisical. They have a history of playing Philadelphia and other divisional opponents very tough over the last few seasons as well. Meanwhile, the Eagles offense showed their true colors last week against Oakland. Philadelphia has always had somewhat of a sluggish offense against better defenses, as they simply can’t run the football effectively. I expect them to struggle against a Washington defense that has gone under-rated this season. The defense is the strength of the Redskins, and they completely shutdown McNabb and the Eagles in the December game last year, despite Philadelphia desperately needing that game. Philadelphia’s defense is also dealing with some injuries, which allowed lowly Oakland to put up season high offensive statistics last week. There is no doubt in my mind that Washington will bring their strongest effort of the season in this game. The players aren’t going to lay down in a nationally televised primetime game against their divisional rival, no matter how much of a dumpster fire the organization is. Much news has been made of Sherm Lewis taking over the play calling as well, but I expect this change will slightly improve the offense and get the players out of their rut. The Redskins offensive line is still not very good though, which makes me take the under also. I expect Lewis to call several short, quick passes, which won’t put too much pressure on the offensive line. Look for Washington’s defense to step up big time in this game, and the offense will play well enough to get the cover and/or win outright. The side and total are related in this game, as Washington isn’t going to be able to keep it close in a high scoring game. However, some unpredictable plays could send the game over the low total, which is why I like Washington much more.
4 UNIT SELECTION ON WASHINGTON +7.5