STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
MONDAY, OCTOBER 13th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Monday, 10/13/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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American League Championship Series
#959 BALTIMORE @ #960 KANSAS CITY
TV: 8:07 PM EST, TBS
Line: Orioles -110, Total: 7.5
The Kansas City Royals spent 28 years watching the postseason from home, and now that they’ve gotten back, they just can’t lose. The Royals go for their seventh straight win this postseason and a 3-0 lead in the American League Championship Series when they host the Baltimore Orioles in Game #3 on Monday. The Orioles have lost the battle of the bullpens in the first two games and will need to make some history in order to win the series.
No team ever has come back from a 2-0 deficit in the ALCS after losing the first two at home, a fact Baltimore has the talent to change. Adam Jones hit his first postseason homer in the Orioles’ 6-4 loss in Game #2 and insisted after the contest that the series was not over despite back-to-back late-inning meltdowns. If Baltimore hopes for a comeback, getting setup man Darren O’Day and closer Zach Britton on track would be one key, as the two have combined to allow four runs on four hits and three walks in the first two games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
•Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (16-6, 3.71 ERA, WHIP: 1.241) - Chen was bailed out by the offense in Game #2 of the AL Division Series against Detroit after allowing five runs and seven hits in 3 2/3 innings. The Taiwan native surrendered two or fewer earned runs in each of his final five regular-season turns and held Kansas City to three runs over 12 1/3 frames in two starts earlier in 2014. Chen yielded a pair of home runs in his ALDS start and was reached for 29 blasts in 32 regular-season outings.
--CHEN is 13-4 (+9.9 Units) against the money line versus American League teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.0.
--CHEN is 10-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 4.3, OPPONENT 3.2.
--CHEN is 15-5 (+10.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 4.7, OPPONENT 3.2.
--CHEN is 13-4 (+10.1 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.8.
•Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (13-11, 4.13 ERA, WHIP: 1.298) - Guthrie missed out on the fun in the wild-card game and the ALDS but gets the nod against his former team in Game #3. The veteran spent five seasons at the top of Baltimore's staff without making the playoffs before leaving via free agency following the 2011 campaign. Guthrie finished the regular season strong, allowing a total of one earned run in 20 1/3 innings over his last three starts, but has not pitched since September 26th.
--GUTHRIE is 17-11 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.0, OPPONENT 3.8.
--GUTHRIE is 16-8 (+13.1 Units) against the money line versus teams outscoring opponent by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was GUTHRIE 4.3, OPPONENT 3.9.
•PREGAME NOTES: Royals 3B Mike Moustakas is the first player in franchise history to homer in four straight playoff games.... Baltimore DH Nelson Cruz has recorded multiple hits in each of the first five games of the postseason.... Kansas City CF Lorenzo Cain is 6-for-8 with four runs scored and an RBI in the first two games of the series.... Baltimore was 46-35 on the road this season, a decent mark but by no means the same level of dominance that they exhibited at home. And now their power-hitting lineup has to try to punch balls over the outfield fence at one of the least homer-friendly ballparks in the game.... The Orioles have had no problem producing high totals on grass surfaces, as the Over is 7-1 in Baltimore's last eight games on grass.
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•KEY STATS
--BALTIMORE is 29-12 (+18.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.7, OPPONENT 3.1.
--BALTIMORE is 50-26 (+26.7 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 4.4, OPPONENT 3.2.
--BALTIMORE is 28-12 (+19.8 Units) against the money line versus a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities this season.
The average score was BALTIMORE 5.2, OPPONENT 3.6.
•HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORY
--Games Over The Last 3 Seasons: KANSAS CITY is 14-11 (+3.9 Units) against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons. 16 of 24 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +6.3 Units.
--Games This Season: KANSAS CITY is 6-3 (+2.8 Units) against BALTIMORE this season. 4 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season Over= -1.1 Units, Under= -0.1 Units.
--All Games At KANSAS CITY Over The Last 3 Seasons: BALTIMORE is 5-5 (+0.2 Units) against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons. 7 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons Under= +4.6 Units.
--Games Played At KANSAS CITY This Season: BALTIMORE is 2-2 (+0.3 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season. 3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season Under= +1.8 Units.
--Under is 11-5-1 in the last 17 meetings.
--Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Kansas City.
--Under is 4-0 in Chens last 4 starts vs. Royals.
--Under is 3-0-1 in Guthries last 4 starts vs. Orioles.
•RECENT TRENDS
--BAL is 10-2 in their last 12 Monday games.
--BAL is 6-0 in CHENS last 6 starts as a favorite.
--BAL is 4-1 in CHENS last 5 starts versus AL Central.
--KC is 1-4 in GUTHRIES last 5 starts as an underdog.
--KC is 1-5 in GUTHRIES last 6 starts versus AL East.
--KC is 1-4 in GUTHRIES last 5 starts as a home underdog.
•UMPIRE TRENDS - Joe West
--Road team is 4-0 in Wests last 4 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Over is 4-1 in Wests last 5 games behind home plate vs. Kansas City.
--Over is 21-9-2 in Wests last 32 games behind home plate.
--Home team is 16-7 in Wests last 23 games behind home plate.
--Orioles are 8-19 in their last 27 games with West behind home plate.
•SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS: Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (BALTIMORE) - terrible speed team - averaging 0.35 or less SB's/game on the season against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings.
(37-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.2%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +102.6
The average score in these games was: Team 4.7, Opponent 2.7 (Average run differential = +2)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3, +3.3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-12, +11.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (76-57, +21.5 units).
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