Mike Handzelek
Monday, October 12, 2015
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. San Diego Chargers(NFL)
8:30 PM EDT San Diego Chargers Premium Pick Sportsbook.com
Play Title: 8 STAR MNF Smart Play
Play Selected: Money Line: -180
Analysis: Some close losses yesterday but we're closing the week right on MNF. Just like in MLB, sometimes you have to grab the ML when the picking is ripe. You may not get this price again as I perceive the books will be pushing up the price as game time gets nearer. Here we have Michael Vick versus Philip Rivers. While the Chargers are missing some personnel, they are averaging 31.5 PPG @ home & now face a Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh team coming off an emotional OT loss to their hated rival, the Baltimore Ravens. Despite the 10-day prep time, the question still remains whether the 35-year-old QB Michael Vick can rebound from the physicality of an OT game with the Ravens. Remember, he ran the ball 14 times (2 fumbles-none lost) & hasn't thrown a pick yet. I have a feeling both of those stats may not stay consistent. The Steelers come in averaging 13.5 PPG on the road & their chemistry is clearly disrupted. Vick is still learning their system having been with the team 6 short weeks. Look for TE Heath Miller, WR Antonio Brown & fresh off suspension WR Martavis Bryant to be frequent targets this game. On the flip side, San Diego is getting a BIG boost as Rivers' favorite red-zone receiver & TE Antonio Gates comes back fresh off his 4-game suspension for violating the NFL's drug policy. My bottom line says that even without the injured WR Malcolm Floyd, QB Rivers still has a core of targets with WR's Keenan Allen, Ladarius Greene, TE Gates & RB's Danny Woodhead & Melvin Gordon. Rivers plays through adversity with players down. Pittsburgh gives away victories. This San diego QB is the real deal averaging 312 passing yards a game compared to Vick's game-managed 162 last week including extra time. The last daggers for me have to be Pittsburgh's 16 PPG the past 2 weeks & allowing 4 TD's to TE's (Gates returning) this season. These are not signs of a SU win coming since DC John Pagano is set to employ better-disguised coverages inside his aggressive one-gap "30" scheme to shut down Steeler playmakers & get better versus the run. This will be the key to game. Pittsburgh's kicking game is a mess & have now signed their 4th kicker (since losing Shaun Suisham in August) with Chris Boswell. My 8 STAR MNF Smart Play says to eagerly grab the San Diego Chargers on the ML!
