VegasButcher - NBA
Dallas Mavericks -6
Without Rondo, Dallas had a net-differential of +8 through their first 27 games of the season with a 116 OffEff and 108 DefEff. In Rondo’s first 4 games with the team there was clearly an adjustment period as Dallas averaged 106 Off and Def Efficiencies, for a net-differential of zero. Well, in the 4 games since then, Dallas has averaged a net-differential of +18, with 119 OffEff and 100 DefEff. Their defensive efficiency lately has been on par with the Warriors’ league leading 99.8 mark. Remember, Rondo was primarily brought in to improve Dallas’ D. Of course the sample size is still very small, but still, the results are pretty positive so far. Both teams are on a b2b and 3in4 spots here, but there are a couple of key differences between the two. Dallas is coming off two straight blowouts, while playing the early day-game yesterday. Their key guys are fairly well rested, and as a team they had extra time to travel and prepare for this one. Brooklyn, on the other hand, was involved in two straight very close games, while also starting their game last night 5 hours after Dallas’. Brooklyn is an older team and I think they’re in a tougher physical spot than the Mavs here. I like Dallas to get a convincing win tonight.
Denver Nuggets -4
I’m simply fading the 2nd worst team in basketball where I feel there’s value on the line. My model has this one at Denver -6. Denver has the advantage on the boards and their D ranks 10th in eFG%-allowed. I don’t expect a lot of second-hand chances for the Wolves in this one, and over a course of 48-minutes the more ‘efficient’ team should be able to come ahead here. Lawson should own LaVine in his matchup and I foresee enough offense out of this Denver team to come away with a win and cover tonight.
Washington Wizards +2.5
Washington is ending their 5-game road-trip tonight, and I expect a very strong effort. The reason is that this team is currently on a 3-game losing streak, and typically ‘playoff’ teams step up their effort in such scenarios. Wizards faced HOU, DAL, OKC, and SAS so far, all are top contenders in the West. They now go up against the Pelicans, a team that won’t make the post-season. So the opponent is a bit weaker than what Washington faced so far on their trip. More importantly Pelicans’ 2nd best player, Tyreke Evans, is listed as questionable with an illness. Reports that I’ve seen indicate that he’s closer to doubtful here. If he sits, Washington will have a huge advantage with their backcourt as Evans is a tough defensive assignment for Wizards’ smallish guards. In addition, Washington’s 2nd unit will have an advantage as they’ll have overall better depth in this matchup. Pelicans are a very inconsistent team, alternating wins and losses, for 9 straight games. They’re coming off a win and could have a tough time against a motivated Wizards squad.
Atlanta Hawks +5.5
I have this one at -3.5 LAC, so there’s some value on the Hawks here. The team is 11-4 ATS on the road, 8-2 ATS against the Western Conference, and 11-2 ATS when facing an opponent with a winning record. By comparison, LAC is 8-11 ATS at home and 4-10 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. I don’t see the Clippers being that much better than the Hawks, and I think 5.5 points is too many to pass up with the team that is #1 in the Eastern Conference right now.
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5
Last time OKC traveled to GS, I backed them as a +2.5 point underdog. Well, 19 minutes and 30 points later, Kevin Durant injured his ankle, and was done for the day. The Warriors held on to a 5-point win. The first meeting of the season, OKC was missing both KD and Westbrook, and Thunder held Golden State to only 91 points and only lost to them by 5. Is 3rd time the charm? I think so. OKC will have a big size advantage as Bogut is still out. In addition, I just don’t see anyone being able to guard Durant or Westbrook. Everyone talks about Golden State being the ‘best’ team in the league, and I’m sure competitors like KD and RW pay attention to that. I think they’ll want to make a ‘statement’ in tonight’s contest in this double-revenge spot.