ANDY ISKOE
Virginia Tech vs Stanford
Pick: Virginia Tech +4
This is one of the most attractive matchups of the Bowl season, pitting a perennial eastern power against a program known more for its academics than prowess on the gridiron. Early season prospects for Virginia Tech did not look bright after an opening game loss to Boise State followed 5 days later by a home loss to FCS opponent James Madison. However they turned things around quickly and firmly by winning their next 11 games, including the ACC Title game. 10 wins were by double digits (the lone exception was 28-21 vs Georgia Tech) Stanford had arguably the best season in school history and came within one half from being in the BCS Title game, leading unbeaten Oregon 31-24 before being outscored 28-0 in the second half. They did survive a couple of scares, defeating USC by 2 and winning at Arizona state by just 4. Both teams are led by outstanding QB’s although Stanford’s Luck has received much more attention than Tech’s Taylor. Both teams excelled at avoiding turnovers on offense and creating them on defense. Stanford was +14 in turnover margin, Tech +18. Stanford has statistical edges on both sides of the football but they are not huge. Both offenses are well balanced with each rushing and passing for over 200 ypg. Tech played an overall better brand of competition, going 7-1 against Bowl teams. Stanford played just 4 Bowlers, going 3-1, in addition to a win over USC (8-5 but on probation). Both teams closed strongly. Tech was 4-0/10-1 ATS, Stanford 4-0-1. Tech has a significant edge in prior Bowl experience. Stanford is in a second straight Bowl but prior to last season had not been to a Bowl since 2001. The Cardinal lost a well played game in last season’s Sun Bowl to Oklahoma, 31-27, but covered as a 10 point dog. Tech has been to a Bowl each season since 1993. They’ve won and covered their last 2 Bowls and are 5-5 SU and ATS over the last decade including 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS when in the rare role of Bowl underdog. These two teams are very evenly matched with the slight statistical edges of Stanford offset by Tech’s experience and more challenging schedule. Getting points, especially at least a FG, with a very talented underdog is attractive. Tech is fully capable of winning outright.