THE SPORTS ADVISORS
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 28
NFL
Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Panthers face a tough task if they are to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 1998, as they head to the new Cowboys Stadium to take on Dallas.
Carolina fell 28-20 in Atlanta last week as a six-point underdog after a Week 1 blowout home loss to the Eagles, 38-10 as a one-point pup. The Panthers rank 30th in the league in points-allowed (33 per game), and the defense has registered just two sacks while yielding 168 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. Offensively, QB Jake Delhomme threw four INTs and lost a fumble in the season-opening loss to the Eagles, but rebounded and played well in Atlanta, throwing for 308 yards and a TD. However, his interception with 2½ minutes left ended the Panthers’ comeback hopes.
Dallas lost a thriller to the Giants a week ago, falling 33-31 as a three-point home favorite, when New York kicker Lawrence Tynes nailed a 37-yarder as time expired to ruin the Cowboys first regular-season game in the new $1.15 billion Cowboys Stadium. Dallas rushed for a 251 yards, but QB Tony Romo was a disaster, completing just 13 of 29 passes for 127 yards with one TD and three INTs, all of which resulted New York touchdowns. Overall, the Cowboys had four turnovers that led to 24 points for the Giants.
Romo’s put up his lowest passing yardage total and second-lowest passer rating (29.6) of his career as a starter. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has given up 877 yards in the first two games, third worst in the NFL, and the Cowboys are the only team yet to record a sack or force a turnover.
The Cowboys have won seven straight regular-season games (4-2-1 ATS) over Carolina, but lost to the Panthers in their January 2004 playoff matchup 29-10 as a three-point underdog in Carolina.
The Panthers are on ATS downfalls of 1-6 as an underdog (1-5 as a road pup), 1-4 vs. NFC teams and 4-9-1 in September. Dallas has failed to cash in four straight Monday night games, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 8-3 in September, 5-2 against NFC squads and 17-8-1 following a SU loss.
Under the lights on Monday, Carolina is 15-9 SU (15-8-1 ATS) all-time, while the Cowboys are 37-28 SU (28-36-1 ATS).
Other than the Panthers 22-10-2 “under” run in September, both these teams have been nailing “over” tickets lately. Carolina is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall, 9-1 vs. NFC teams, 5-0 after an ATS loss and 4-0 as a road underdog. Dallas is on a plethora of “over” streaks that include 4-0 overall, 7-1 in Week 3, 7-2-1 on Monday and 4-1 in September. The “over” has also been the play in four of the last five in this series.
Finally, all three Monday night contests this season have topped the posted total, and the over is 14-4-1 in Monday Night Football since the start of last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (83-73) at Atlanta (85-70)
After a perfect six-game road trip, the Braves return home looking to keep the pressure on Colorado in the wild-card race, with Jair Jurrjens (13-10, 2.70 ERA) slated to take the mound for the home team against the Marlins and Anibal Sanchez (3-7, 3.96).
Atlanta scored three runs in the 10th inning Sunday and beat Washington 6-3 to cap its 6-0 road trip, with all six victories coming by multiple runs against N.L. East rivals (Mets and Nats). The Braves are on a 14-2 run (4-2 at home), but still trail the Rockies by 2½ games in the wild-card race. Bobby Cox’s club is on additional surges of 12-1 as a favorite, 5-1 in series openers and 4-1 on Monday.
Florida got blanked 4-0 by the Mets on Sunday and has split its last 10 contests to fall five games off the pace in the wild-card chase. The Marlins have lost five straight series openers, but are otherwise on positive streaks of 7-3 on the road, 7-3 on Monday, 11-5 in N.L. East play and 5-0 as an underdog.
The Marlins hold a slim 8-7 lead in this year’s season series with the Braves, and the road team has won nine of the 15 contests. However, dating back several years, Florida is in a 17-35 rut at Turner Field (4-2 this year).
Sanchez is coming off Tuesday’s dominating 3-0 home win over the Phillies, scattering just two hits and two walks over eight scoreless innings. The right-hander has been strong lately, giving up three earned runs or fewer in eight consecutive starts, but he’s pitched six innings or more just three times during this stretch.
The Marlins are 1-5 in Sanchez’s last six road starts, 1-4 in his last five as a pup and 0-4 in his last four Monday outings. He’s 2-4 with a 4.72 ERA in seven road starts this season and 3-4 with a 4.63 ERA in eight career starts against the Braves (2-2, 4.15 ERA in four starts versus Atlanta this season).
Jurrjens has delivered eight consecutive quality starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in seven of those contests. The right-hander has been incredible over his last three trips to the mound, going 3-0 with a 0.82 ERA (two earned runs allowed in 22 innings). He won 3-1 at the Mets on Tuesday, allowing a run on five hits in seven innings.
With Jurrjens pitching, the Braves are on runs of 9-4 against N.L. East foes, but 1-4 as a home chalk, 0-4 on Monday and 1-10 in series openers. He’s 6-6 in 16 home starts this year despite a solid 2.66 ERA, but he’s 2-1 with a bloated 5.46 ERA in five career starts against Florida.
The under is 5-0-1 in Florida’s last six road games, and with Sanchez on the hill, the “under” is on runs of 4-1 overall, 15-5-2 on the road, 8-2-1 against the N.L. East, 3-0-1 versus the Braves and 4-0-1 when he pitches in Atlanta. Meanwhile, the over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five at home and 6-3 in its nine against right-handed starters, but behind Jurrjens, the Braves are on “under” tears of 5-1 overall, 5-0 on Monday, 18-3 in series openers and 7-2 versus teams with a winning record.
Finally, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight Marlins-Braves clashes at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (81-74) at Detroit (83-72)
The top two teams in the A.L. Central begin a crucial four-game series that likely will determine the division winner, with Nick Blackburn (11-11, 4.23 ERA) taking the ball for the Twins against the Tigers’ Rick Porcello (14-9, 4.14) at Comerica Park.
Minnesota saw its five-game winning skid halted by the Royals’ Zack Greinke on Sunday, but the Twins kept pace with the Tigers, who fell 8-4 at the White Sox. Detroit leads the division by two games with each squad having seven games remaining.
Although their winning streak ended yesterday, the Twins have used an 11-2 surge to climb back into the playoff race. They’re on additional runs of 5-1 on the road, 4-1 as an underdog, 5-0 on Monday, 20-7 versus right-handed starters and 16-6 in A.L. Central battles.
Despite Sunday’s setback in Chicago, Detroit still ended a nine-game road trip by winning five of the final seven games (all against right-handed starters and all against divisional foes). Jim Leyland’s squad is on upticks of 33-15 at home and 23-10 at home against righty starters, but the Tigers have dropped 21 of 31 on Monday.
The Twins are 9-5 against Detroit this season, with the host taking 10 of the 14 meetings.
Blackburn is coming off consecutive easy wins over the Indians (7-3 at home) and White Sox (7-0 on the road), giving up a total of two runs on 16 hits with no walks allowed in 13 1/3 innings (1.35 ERA). The right-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts, though Minnesota is just 4-3 over this stretch. In fact, behind Blackburn, the Twins are in funks of 4-9 overall, 7-20 on the highway, 4-12 as an underdog, 2-6 on Monday, 5-12 versus winning teams and 0-12 on the road against winning clubs.
Blackburn is 4-7 with a 4.07 ERA in 16 road efforts this year and 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six appearances (five starts) against the Tigers (1-1, 5.11 ERA in two starts this season).
Porcello is 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, including Wednesday’s 11-3 rout at Cleveland, with the right-hander allowing a run in five innings. With Porcello hurling, Detroit is on positive runs of 17-8 overall, 5-0 at home, 14-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a home chalk.
Porcello is 8-3 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 starts at Comerica this season (11 of which the Tigers have won), and the rookie has faced the Twins three times, going 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA.
Behind Blackburn, the Twins are on “under” runs of 5-2 overall, 15-5-1 on the road, 4-1 on Monday, 20-7-1 against the A.L. Central and 4-0 when facing the Tigers. Meanwhile, the under is 7-2-1 in Porcello’s last 10 when opening a series and 8-3 in his last 11 versus divisional rivals.
As a team, Minnesota is on “under” surges of 18-6-4 overall, 8-2-1 in series openers, 12-2-2 against right-handed starters and 6-2-2 as an underdog, though the Twins have topped the total in four of five on the road (all within the division). Meanwhile, the Tigers are on “over” runs of 6-1 at home, 10-2-1 as a chalk, 5-0 on Monday and 8-2-1 against right-handed starters. Finally, the over is 3-1-1 in the last five series meetings at Comerica Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
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