SPORTS ADVISORS
Cincinnati (26-23) at St. Louis (29-21)
After getting swept in Milwaukee over the weekend, the Reds now move to St. Louis and open a four-game series at Busch Stadium with Edinson Volquez (4-2, 4.25 ERA) returning from the disabled list and pitching opposite the Cardinals’ Todd Wellemeyer (5-4, 5.02).
Cincinnati arrived in Milwaukee on Friday riding a four-game winning streak, but lost all three games against the division-leading Brewers, capped off by Sunday’s 5-2 loss. The Reds have dropped six straight on the road and six straight against right-handed starters, but they’re 7-3 in their last 10 on Monday.
St. Louis wrapped up a six-game road trip with a 5-3 loss in San Francisco on Sunday. The Cards went 3-3 on the trip but now return home where they are 23-9 in their last 32 (22-7 as a home chalk). St. Louis is on further runs of 8-4 overall, 6-1 as a favorite, 7-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 against N.L. Central rivals.
Volquez, who was on the DL with back spasms, is 3-0 with a 3.28 ERA in four road starts this season. He got a no-decision in his last outing on May 16 when he allowed two runs on four hits in 5 2/3 innings in San Diego, with the Reds falling 6-5. Previous to that start, the right-hander faced the Cardinals on May 10 and allowed seven runs on six hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-7 loss after splitting two starts against them last season. With Volquez pitching, Cincinnati is on runs of 13-3 on the highway, 5-1 in series openers, 5-0 as a road ‘dog and 4-1 against the N.L. Central.
Wellemeyer is just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA in six starts at Busch Stadium this season. However, his last home start was his best this season when he blanked the Royals on four hits over six innings en route to a 5-0 victory. Wellemeyer faced the Reds three times last season and gave up a combined 10 runs on 18 hits in 18 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA), and the Cardinals lost two of the three games. St. Louis is 5-1 in Wellemeyer’s last six home starts, but just 2-8 in his last 10 against teams with winning records and 3-8 in his last 11 against N.L. Central squads.
The Reds took two of three from St. Louis in Cincinnati in the first three-game set between these two this season, but the Cardinals have dominated this series at home, going 36-15 in the last 51 near the arch.
Cincinnati has topped the total in 16 of Volquez’s last 24 starts and 10 of his last 16 against N.L. Central rivals. Meanwhile, with Wellemeyer on the hill, the Cardinals have topped the total in five of his last seven at home, but they’ve stayed under the total in five of his last six overall and six of his last seven against teams with winning records.
The over is 8-3 in the Reds’ last 11 against N.L. Central teams, but the under is 13-6-1 in their last 20 roadies. St. Louis is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 9-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 6-0 in series openers, 5-1 against the N.L. Central and 4-1 on Mondays. Finally, the last seven Reds-Cards clashes have topped the total and the over is 4-1 in the last five battles at Busch Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Philadelphia (28-20) at San Diego (25-25)
The Phillies kick off a 10-game road trip by sending Joe Blanton (3-3, 6.14 ERA) to the mound at Petco Park in San Diego opposite the Padres’ Kevin Correia (1-3, 5.11).
Philadelphia swept a weekend series against the Nationals, concluding with Sunday’s 4-2 victory. The Phils have won seven of their last 10 overall and three of their last four on the highway. Philadelphia is on further runs of 12-4 overall, 19-7 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 49-22 in series openers and 13-6 against N.L. West teams.
San Diego salvaged one of three in Colorado over the weekend by beating the Rockies 5-2 on Sunday. The Padres have won 10 straight in front of the home fans, including a perfect 9-0 homestand they last time they were in San Diego. They are on further runs of 12-3 overall, 7-0 against teams with winning records, 7-2 against the N.L. East and 7-0 against right-handed starters.
Blanton had his best start of the season Tuesday when he blanked the Marlins for seven innings and led the Phillies to a 5-3 victory. Philadelphia has won five of his last six starts but in Blanton’s last two road efforts, he’s allowed a combined nine runs on 13 hits in 10 innings (8.10 ERA), but his offense has bailed him out both times, winning 10-6 in Washington and 12-5 in Cincinnati.
Blanton has only seen the Padres once in his career, giving up five run (four earned) in four innings of an 8-1 loss as a starter for Oakland in 2006. Philadelphia is 13-3 in Blanton’s last 16 trips to the mound overall, 6-1 in his last seven on the road, 4-0 in his last four on Monday and 6-0 in his last six series openers.
Correia got hit hard in his last start, allowing six runs on nine hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-5 loss in Arizona. However, in his last home outing the right-hander held the Giants to one run on six hits in 6 1/3 innings of a 3-2 victory, lowering his ERA at Petco Park to 4.88 in five starts, four of which the Padres have won. Correia hasn’t started against the Phillies since 2003 as a member of the Giants when he held them to one run on seven hits in six innings of a 5-2 victory.
San Diego took two of three from the Phillies in Philadelphia earlier this season, but the Phils are 5-1 in their last six visits to Petco Park.
Philadelphia has topped the total in seven of nine as a road favorite, nine of 13 against the N.L. West and 10 of 16 versus right-handed starters, but the team also carries “under” trends of 8-1 overall, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 as a favorite. San Diego is on over streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on Mondays and 4-1-1 against N.L. East teams, but the under has been the play for the Padres in six of their last seven at home and six of their last eight series openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
