Dave Malinsky
4* ATLANTA/MINESOTA Under
Full season numbers are lagging way behind where these two are performing in this category right now, and with Mike Woodson in a classic MTG setting (Manage The Game), off of Cleveland, and with San Antonio, Boston and the Lakers immediately on deck, this pace is not going anywhere.
Before that Saturday road loss against the Cavaliers the Hawks had made news on a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS home stand, with Maurice Williams assimilating well into the starting lineup. What went unnoticed, based on tonight?s high Total, was that there was another pattern in play beyond the Hawks just winning ? the pace was slowing, and the defense was gearing up. Those seven games played Under at a 6-1 clip, falling a collective 69 points below the projections, or nearly 10 full points per game. And the only Over came in a setting in which the Hawks could not help but scored in a 119-97 blowout of Sacramento. And since the All Star break it has been an 8-1 tally to the Under on this court, falling a collective 105 points below the projections. There is no reason for that to change here in a game that the Hawks should be able to command the pace throughout
Minnesota provides one of those sleeper counter-sides to MTG settings. When the Timberwolves come to town it is a chance for the home team to get a win without overly taxing themselves, and we can see the patter this way ? in five settings as a road underdog in March it has been a 4-1 Under count, with those games falling 40 points below the projections. At the back end of a cycle that makes this the fifth game in seven days, with a court change every time, Kevin McHale knows that his best chance to compete is to make this as slow of a flow as possible, which further plays to our purposes.
4* CREIGHTON over KENTUCKY
It might not be a stretch to call for this to be one of the most intense crowds we will ever see for an NIT game, with standing room only seats now being sold at the Qwest Center, where they may top out at over 18,00 spectators tonight (Creighton reached 17,954 vs. Wichita State earlier). And that provides exactly the kind of passion and intensity that can drive a key matchup advantage into an easy win for the home team.
Creighton came out flat in the NIT opener vs. Bowling Green, which is what happens to a lot of teams that felt that they were snubbed by the Big Dance (no team had ever had 26 wins, and finished in the RPI top 40, without getting in). But whereas the markets often view such a performance as a team being disinterested, it is in game #2 when the intensity and focus returns, particularly when a name program is coming to town. And Dana Altman?s squad has the ideal tactics to make this one work.
Altman has one of the deepest rotations in the nation, with 10 different players averaging at least 14 minutes per game, and they will press the length of the court for the full 40minutes. Nine of those 10 players have at least a dozen steals, and it helped them to finish #12 in the nation in turnover margin. And in terms of floor play the overall execution brings a lot of extra scoring opportunities to the table ? the finished +63 in assist to turnover ratio, while holding their opponents to -133 in that same category. Enter Kentucky. While Jodie Meeks is special on the perimeter and Patrick Patterson is a load down low, the Wildcats are just abysmal at handling the rock. And we mean abysmal. They finished #322 in the nation in turnovers (correct, #322), and #296 in turnover margin.They gave the ball up 586 times this season, with seven different players turning the ball over at least 53 times. Those just happen to be the only seven players that average double-figure minutes, which also makes this an uphill battle as the Blue Jays throw fresher players at them all evening, with the crowd only making matters more difficult for the Wildcat ball-handlers.
The S.E.C. was nothing special at all this season, and yet Kentucky is being priced as being the significantly better team here, based on what we think the home court is worth. We will back a hungryCreighton team to create easy points off of Wildcat turnovers to build a lead in this one, and the Blue Jays can use their 75.3 percent free throw accuracy to close it out late.
4* ATLANTA/MINESOTA Under
Full season numbers are lagging way behind where these two are performing in this category right now, and with Mike Woodson in a classic MTG setting (Manage The Game), off of Cleveland, and with San Antonio, Boston and the Lakers immediately on deck, this pace is not going anywhere.
Before that Saturday road loss against the Cavaliers the Hawks had made news on a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS home stand, with Maurice Williams assimilating well into the starting lineup. What went unnoticed, based on tonight?s high Total, was that there was another pattern in play beyond the Hawks just winning ? the pace was slowing, and the defense was gearing up. Those seven games played Under at a 6-1 clip, falling a collective 69 points below the projections, or nearly 10 full points per game. And the only Over came in a setting in which the Hawks could not help but scored in a 119-97 blowout of Sacramento. And since the All Star break it has been an 8-1 tally to the Under on this court, falling a collective 105 points below the projections. There is no reason for that to change here in a game that the Hawks should be able to command the pace throughout
Minnesota provides one of those sleeper counter-sides to MTG settings. When the Timberwolves come to town it is a chance for the home team to get a win without overly taxing themselves, and we can see the patter this way ? in five settings as a road underdog in March it has been a 4-1 Under count, with those games falling 40 points below the projections. At the back end of a cycle that makes this the fifth game in seven days, with a court change every time, Kevin McHale knows that his best chance to compete is to make this as slow of a flow as possible, which further plays to our purposes.
4* CREIGHTON over KENTUCKY
It might not be a stretch to call for this to be one of the most intense crowds we will ever see for an NIT game, with standing room only seats now being sold at the Qwest Center, where they may top out at over 18,00 spectators tonight (Creighton reached 17,954 vs. Wichita State earlier). And that provides exactly the kind of passion and intensity that can drive a key matchup advantage into an easy win for the home team.
Creighton came out flat in the NIT opener vs. Bowling Green, which is what happens to a lot of teams that felt that they were snubbed by the Big Dance (no team had ever had 26 wins, and finished in the RPI top 40, without getting in). But whereas the markets often view such a performance as a team being disinterested, it is in game #2 when the intensity and focus returns, particularly when a name program is coming to town. And Dana Altman?s squad has the ideal tactics to make this one work.
Altman has one of the deepest rotations in the nation, with 10 different players averaging at least 14 minutes per game, and they will press the length of the court for the full 40minutes. Nine of those 10 players have at least a dozen steals, and it helped them to finish #12 in the nation in turnover margin. And in terms of floor play the overall execution brings a lot of extra scoring opportunities to the table ? the finished +63 in assist to turnover ratio, while holding their opponents to -133 in that same category. Enter Kentucky. While Jodie Meeks is special on the perimeter and Patrick Patterson is a load down low, the Wildcats are just abysmal at handling the rock. And we mean abysmal. They finished #322 in the nation in turnovers (correct, #322), and #296 in turnover margin.They gave the ball up 586 times this season, with seven different players turning the ball over at least 53 times. Those just happen to be the only seven players that average double-figure minutes, which also makes this an uphill battle as the Blue Jays throw fresher players at them all evening, with the crowd only making matters more difficult for the Wildcat ball-handlers.
The S.E.C. was nothing special at all this season, and yet Kentucky is being priced as being the significantly better team here, based on what we think the home court is worth. We will back a hungryCreighton team to create easy points off of Wildcat turnovers to build a lead in this one, and the Blue Jays can use their 75.3 percent free throw accuracy to close it out late.
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