Cajun-Sports CFB Executive Club
4:00 PM EDT
3 STAR SELECTION
RUTGERS -4 over Fresno State
In a Labor Day matchup of 2 tough, physical football teams, the Scarlet Knights will host the Bulldogs, as both teams kick off their season. Last year coach Pat Hill got his team back to the postseason, and proceeded to take out Georgia Tech, 40-28, to claim the Humanitarian Bowl, while Greg Schiano beat up on Ball State, 52-30, in the International Bowl.
Fresno State quarterback Tom Brandstater is off a season in which he completed nearly 63% of his passes and hit for 15 touchdowns. He?ll no doubt be looking for TE Bear Pascoe, the only player on the team to be named to the All-WAC First Team. Running backs Ryan Matthews and Lonyae Miller have already shown a nose for the end zone after posting a combined 21 of the team's 34 rushing touchdowns a season ago.
Defense was the weakness of the team a year ago, and figures to be once again. Fresno State ranked a poor 85th in the nation a year ago with more than 181 ypg allowed on the ground. Finding a replacement for linebacker and top tackler Marcus Riley will not be an easy task in the least and already coach Hill has expressed a concern about where he's going to find leadership on the unit.
Last year's Scarlet Knights became just the eighth in program history to score at least 300 points in a season, so there's no doubt the squad knows how to find the end zone. Without star RB Ray Rice this season, Rutgers will be asking redshirt sophomore Kordell Young to shoulder much of the load, along with Mason Robinson. Quarterback Mike Teel is back, and helped direct the 18th-ranked offense in the nation to almost 450 ypg a season ago. He?ll have his favorite pass-catchers to throw to in senior Tiquan Underwood and junior Kenny Britt.
A season ago the pass defense for the Scarlet Knights was almost unparallel, ranked second in the Big East and fifth in the nation overall with a mere 170 ypg allowed. The team permitted only 327 ypg of total offense overall, which was third in the league and 17th in the country. With 8 starters back on the unit, Rutgers should be very tough on defense once again this season.
It appears to us that Rutgers is being overlooked by about everyone except the oddsmakers. Most of the talking heads on TV are picking Fresno State to win this game and touting them as a team to potentially crash the BCS party this season, which would require a perfect season. The Scarlet Knights have certainly noticed which team is the ranked one and realize they have the opportunity to end the Bulldog?s party before it even gets started.
While we are a big fan of Pat Hill, especially in the underdog role, we are also a Greg Schiano fan and like his team?s chances here.
Our database research shows some strong numbers in Rutgers favor. Fresno State is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 non-Saturday non-Bowl games, while the Knights are 5-0 ATS in their first lined home game the past 5 seasons under Schiano and 7-0 ATS in non-Saturday games vs. non-conference opponents since 2001.
Before a special non-Saturday home game, teams have started the season strong at home against a non-conference opponent.
Finally, we have an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM active here which states:
In Game 1, play ON a non-conference home team before a non-Saturday home contest in its next game.
Under these simple parameters, teams are a perfect 10-0 SU & ATS since 1994. The last team to qualify was Rutgers last season, as they blasted Buffalo, 38-3, as a 32-point favorite. While we don?t expect anything close to that, we do look for the Knights defense to hold down the Bulldogs offense, while Teel and his receivers do a lot of damage via the air to help the home team to a comfortable SU & ATS win.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: RUTGERS 37 FRESNO STATE 27
8:00 PM EDT
2 STAR SELECTION
Tennessee -7 over UCLA
In a season-opening Labor Day contest, the 18th-ranked Volunteers of the SEC pay a visit to the Bruins of the Pac-10. A victory over Wisconsin in the Outback Bowl enabled Tennessee to carry some momentum into the offseason and coach Phil Fulmer has plenty of talent in place, including 15 returning starters. UCLA finished a disappointing 6-6 last season and lost to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Now, a new coaching staff is in place, headed by Rick Neuheisel.
The Jonathan Crompton era begins for the Vols on Monday, as the junior quarterback takes over the reins of the offense from Erik Ainge. Crompton has the size and arm strength to be extremely successful. He also has some big-time talent at the wide receiver position as is usually the case for Tennessee. The offensive line welcomes back all five starters to complement tailback Arian Foster. Last season, Foster racked up nearly 1,200 yards and 12 touchdowns and has a chance to finish as the top rusher in the history of the program. Tennessee averaged 32.5 ppg and just over 400 total ypg last season, and with so much talent on hand, even better things should be in store.
The Bruins were extremely inconsistent on the offensive side of the football last season, and with only four starters back for the 2008 campaign, it is likely the team could continue to struggle, especially with a new staff and system. The main issue is at quarterback, as the team thought Ben Olson and Pat Cowan would battle for the starting spot, but before the season could even start both players went down with injuries, and now 3rd-string junior Kevin Craft gets the call. Craft can?t expect a lot of help. Last year UCLA's rushing attack was decimated by injuries and production could be tough to come by in 2008 with no true starter in the backfield and a revamped offensive line.
UCLA relied heavily on the performance of its defense last year, but with only five starters back for the '08 season, it is unlikely that the unit will be as productive. The secondary is the biggest concern for UCLA, as the team returns only cornerback Alterraun Verner. We expect Crompton to take his shots and test the UCLA corners and safeties with some deep balls throughout the game.
We expect big things from UCLA eventually, but they are simply overmatched by superior talent in this opener. While the Bruins have been tough over the years as a home dog, the Volunteers have been a strong road favorite, especially when favored by single digits, as they are here.
We also note that in SEC vs. Pac-10 battles, the favorites have had the upper hand in recent seasons. Specifically, favorites of more than 1 point are 6-0 SU & ATS, winning outright by nearly 30 ppg, while crushing the spread by nearly 17 ppg on average. Last year, Tennessee was on the wrong side when they traveled to Cal and got mauled by the Bears in a pay-back game. The Vols will be looking to be the team doling out the punishment here.
The Bruins have a break after this game, so it?s likely they would just as soon get this game out of the way and get a bit healthier for their next outing. Non-conference home underdogs have historically not been ready to start the season with an extended break coming up next. This is demonstrated by an NCAA Football POWER SYSTEM which states:
In Game 1, play AGAINST a non-conference home underdog of 4+ points before 9+ days rest.
Simple but perfect, as such teams are a dreadful 0-14 SU & ATS since at least 1983. UCLA is the next qualifying team and figure to come up short here. Pure adrenalin and home crowd should keep them in this game for at least a half, but we look for the Volunteers to wear them down, especially late, and win game going away.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: TENNESSEE 37 UCLA 24
