THE FALL MIRACLE
5 selections for Saturday
BOSTON COLLEGE (-5) over CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Central Michigan has emerged as the premier team in the MAC and have a quality senior QB in Dan LeFevour. A dual threat QB, he has propelled his team to a 7-1 record including a win at Michigan State. They needed an onside kick with 30 seconds to go in that game, and hit a field goal as time expired. This was after scoring 6 points at Arizona. Don't be fooled into thinking just because CMU can light up the scoreboard for 50 points against teams like Eastern Michigan and Akron, that they can have an easy upset here. This is a team that was tagged for 70 points at Clemson 2 years ago, and Georgia beat them 56-17 last season. Even though this is historically one of BC's weaker teams, their players, all 22 on both sides of the ball, are generally bigger and stronger and better recruited than players in the MAC. That goes from the linemen to the punter all the way down to the kicker. David Shinskie is 25 years old and played ball in the minor leagues for a few years before coming back to play QB for the Eagles. With road games at Virginia and UNC, this a high priority game for BC to secure bowl eligibility. For CMU, the game is meaningless from a business standpoint except for LeFevour playing hard for NFL scouts. After a 5 turnover game at Notre Dame where they still almost won, look for BC to clean it up here. Prior to their loss at Notre Dame, Boston College was 16-0 in non-conference games during the regular season since 2005 when they joined the ACC.
Dan LeFevour is a tremendous QB and C. Michigan is tops in the MAC, but top to bottom the ACC players are just much bigger and stronger so the Chippewas won't be able to matchup with the Eagles pound for pound. They got a nice win at Michigan State but don't expect 2 road wins against BCS schools in the same season from a program that was 1-22 against BCS teams prior to their upset in East Lansing.
Boston College 35, Central Michigan 17
Play on: BOSTON COLLEGE
RUTGERS (+7.5) over UCONN
Tragedy struck the UCONN football program when star cornerback and kick returner Jasper Howard was killed 2 weeks ago. The team played inspired ball at WVU and racked up 500 yards of offense, but fell short in the end. This week the team and coaches are flying down to Miami for the funeral. That's a nice gesture, but it also means a full day of practice and preparation missed, including film study for the coaches. Rutgers is coming off a win at Army but that was on Friday so they'll have an extra day to boot. All 5 starters are back on the Rutgers o-line and they'll be facing a UCONN defensive line with only 1 returning starter. That defense has played well so far under the conditions, however, but were led in part by the fallen Howard. Actually Louisville was about to go in for a tying TD down 21-13, and it was Howard who forced a fumble at the goal line as UCONN forced 3 additional turnovers and won by 13. Other than Buffalo, that's the only game they've won by more than 8 points in the last 7 contests. The one bright spot for UCONN, as is the case with so many teams, is that their backup QB is better than the starter. The question will be weather they figured that out, or go back to Frazier when he becomes healthy again which could be this Saturday. UCONN will have Howard's number on thier uniforms as a memorial, but without trying to sound insensitive, that doesn't always translate to points. I remember back in 1989 in the National Championship, Colorado lost their well know player Sal Aunese to cancer prior to the big game vs. Notre Dame and lost 21-6 in a game the whole country wanted them to win. Heck, I was barely a teenager and even I wanted them to win. In my opinion this is a game that really can go either way, so any spread outside of a TD constitutes a big advantage to the underdog.
UCONN will be emotionally charged from the loss of their star player, but the hearts were played out in the WVU game and having to fly roundtrip down to Miami will hamper their schedule and cripple their advantage as an 8 point favorite. I'll take Rutgers plus the points here, considering since their terrible 0-2 start last season, they've gone 13-4 with just one loss by 8+ points- to the 5th best team in the country (Cincinnati).
UCONN 24, Rutgers 21
Play on: RUTGERS
SYRACUSE (+15) over CINCINNATI
Cincinnati's offense is one of the more feared offenses in the league, and how. They move the ball at will, even when the opposing offense plays keep away. Fresno tried this strategy and still lost despite holding onto the ball for 42 minutes. Also Tony Pike is out for backup QB played about as well as you can play, going 15/17 for 250 yards- amazing. Let's keep in mind that the Bearcats are (+11) in TO margin and lead the nation in turnovers committed with just 4. Does that mean they are due for some turnovers? You know what, I think it is. Syracuse will need a superb gameplan that plays keep away from Cincy's potent offense, which is a tough task considering Cuse has trouble putting up points. The one thing they do have planned is using both QB's in certain packages to keep the defense on their heels. Not to take anything away from Cincinnati because they are for real, but the team and their 1 returning starter on defense have yet to play a ranked team. Last season Chase Daniel and Missouri's offense went the first 5 games without a punt, then lost to Oklahoma State at home as a 14 point favorite. All indications point to Cincy, I know. But I do what I do. This is one of those games where I say "Please don't ask me why."
In college football it's all about timing- picking the exact time to go against a team right after they hit their pinnacle. With the Bearcat's first road conference game and a double digit favorite label with a QB making his first road start, each year there's a surprise like that with the underdog just when you think the favorite is unbeatable, and I have a feeling this is the game.
Cincinnati 28, Syracuse 27
Play on: SYRACUSE
INDIANA (+17.5) over IOWA
While the Hawkeyes pulled out a thriller at Michigan State, Indiana watched a 25 point lead go bye-bye with questionable coaching as a pair of failed 4th down conversions kept NW in the game. Still up 26-19, they failed to get in the endzone from the NW 1 yard line, and the Cats drove the length of the field to cut it to 2. On the next drive they stalled on 4th down at the NW 30, and allowed the Cats to then drive down for the winning field goal. They still had a chance to win it, but a 59 yarder fell short as time expired. They sent the kicker out from 59 yards, but couldn't send him out from 50 a few minutes prior? Either way, the Hoosiers and their 17 returning starters roll into Iowa City as a big underdog against the "number 8" team in the country. This could be a big letdown for Iowa after consecutive hard fought road wins. Thier leading rusher is out for this game along with another key offensive lineman on an already generous o-line that's near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. They are also down to their last return man. After getting destroyed at Virginia, the Hoosiers put the Wildcat offense to test and had decent results through the first 2 games. After allowing 40+ points in 5 conference games last season, Indiana has not allowed 40 points yet and they went toe to toe with Michigan at the Big House a few weeks ago. Considering Iowa plays it conservative and is scoring 22 ppg in their 4 league games, Indiana will get some points and the 17.5 points will benefit them greatly ATS.
Iowa has been an exciting team and they are a good team, but sooner or later their luck is going to run out. With the pressure mounting for the Hawkeyes and Ohio State still on the schedule, I see no reason not to back the big dog against a banged up team who's 0-5 ATS as a double digit favorite against conference, and won just 1 of their last 10 conference home games by more than 17 points.
Iowa 30, Indiana 21
Play on: INDIANA
WYOMING (+17) over UTAH
I said in week 2 that Wyoming would finish the season as one of the top ATS teams in the country. Now 5-1, there's no reason not to take them again in a game they might even win. They are coming off a shutout at Air Force, but got a "phantom cover" in a 10-0 loss where they were getting 12 points. By that, I mean a spread cover that doesn't really look too much like a spread cover because all you seem to notice is the final score. Still the Cowboys had chances to get some points. Several false start penalties stalled what few scoring drives they mounted, and a dropped pass in the end zone with a missed field goal kept them scoreless. With a bye week to prepare and a new look QB who has been accurate and mistake free this season, look for the Pokes to rebound here getting a ton of points. I have full confidence in their defense and this season, they will cover all those games where they were blown out last season. New coach Dave Christensen from Missouri has installed the new look spread offense and the last time they were shut out at Colorado, they scored 97 points over the next 3 games. Even though they've scored 0 offensive touchdowns against Texas, Colorado and Air Force, I can't see that trend lasting too much longer under the leadership of the former Missouri offensive coordinator.
Utah still has a very decent team despite losing last season's offensive superstars, but so far their biggest win has been 20 points over a terrible UNLV team. This is not the same Utah team that went 12-0 last season. While Wyoming was on a bye, the Utes expired themselves preparing for Air Force's option offense and Utah's offense was the one that got only 8 first downs. Wyoming has totally cut down on their turnovers, and they are already 2 games away from bowl eligibility. With TCU and BYU coming up, this is a must win game.
Wyoming out-gained Utah last season in a 40-7 loss, but were (-4) in TO margin and gave up 3 non-offensive touchdowns. With Utah vacant of their 4 best offensive players from that squad, the Pokes' defense will hold down the fort and I will not be surprised to see a prepared and revengeful Cowboys team challenge for 60 minutes.
Utah 27, Wyoming 20
Play on: WYOMING
