Service Plays Halloween Saturday 10/31/09

[glcsports]

Sports Insights

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 9 – Games to Watch

Mississippi vs. Auburn (10/31 - 12:20 p.m. EST)

After jumping out to a 5-0 record, many of college football's talking heads anointed the Tigers as the team who would challenge Alabama in the SEC West for a shot at the conference title. Three losses later, the unranked Tigers have gone from trendy SEC sleeper to home underdog against Ole Miss.

Mississippi opened as 4.5-point favorite at Olympic and are currently garnering 73% of spread bets, 75% of moneyline bets and 77% of parlay bets, proving the college football "experts" aren't the only people jumping off the Auburn bandwagon. Even though the public, as well as the national media, seems to have written off the Tigers, sharp money has pounded this game, producing multiple Smart Money Plays on Auburn, including one from Matchbook (+10.23 units) and another from Catalina/VegasVic (+7.49 units). Steam Moves from Pinnacle (+3.3 units) and ThePig (+7.4 units) have also been triggered, further convincing us that the death of the 2009 Auburn Tigers may be a bit premature.

Auburn +4.5

Georgia vs. Florida (10/31 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

Tomorrow is the last Saturday in October, meaning it's time to throw on your costumes, set your clocks back an hour, and get ready for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party; or as the NCAA wants us to call it, "The Georgia-Florida Game." The undefeated Gators come into this game as a favorite among Harris Poll voters, as well as SEC referees. Georgia took a pounding in Knoxville a few weeks ago, but bounced back with a 24-point win against Vandy. More importantly, Florida is coming off a dogfight (no pun intended) against Mississippi State, while the Dawgs were off Saturday, giving them two weeks to rest, prepare and be reminded of the 49-10 beating they took one year ago.

The Gators opened as a 16-point favorite at CRIS and the public is split down the middle on this game. Even though exactly 50% of spread bets are backing Florida, the line has shrunk to -14.5. This line movement suggests there is some sharp money behind Georgia. We also like that the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, and although Florida is listed as the home team, this game is played on a neutral field in Jacksonville. SportsInsights' Betting Systems have triggered one move on the Cocktail Party, a Steam Move on Georgia at Bet365 (+1.0 unit). Although it's not a huge move, it's one more reason to take the points and back the Dawgs. There are still a couple of sportsbooks offering Georgia at +15, so go ahead and grab it at that number.

Georgia +15 (WSEX)

Arkansas State vs. Louisville (10/31 - 3:30 p.m. EST)

Behind 276 yards rushing, Arkansas State notched its second victory of the season last week, rolling over Florida International 27-10. Louisville got hammered by Big East rival Cincinnati 41-10, allowing Bearcats quarterback Zach Collaros to throw for 253 yards and three touchdowns on only 17 pass attempts.

Louisville opened as a 4.5-point favorite at Pinnacle and are a huge public favorite, receiving 78% of spread bets. This one-sided betting should have caused the line to increase, yet it has shrunk to -2.5. This line movement has triggered multiple plays on Arkansas State from SportsInsights Betting Systems, including two separate Steam Moves from 5Dimes (+21.1 units) and one more from The Pig (+7.4). We'll follow the sharp money, as well as the almighty 5Dimes Steam Moves, and go with Red Wolves getting three points.

Arkansas State +3

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 9.

Games to Watch (13-11)
Auburn +4.5
Georgia +15 (WSEX)
Arkansas State +3

 

[glcsports]

Leroy's College Challenge

LEADERS

RAY DRECKER 36-20 RUTG-SMU-AF-PENN ST-TENN-ARK ST- ULMONR

CHARLES TRIO 36-20 RUTG-MISS-OKL ST-AF-SC-N TEX-ULMONR

WES3 36-20 BOISE ST-GA-AF-PENN ST-UTAH ST-N TEX-ULMONR

LVASPORTS2 36-20 E MICH-GA-AF-PENN ST-UTAH-N TEX-ULMONR

VIEWFROMVEGAS 36-20 RUTG-CENT MICH-DUKE-IND-IA ST- SMU-KANSAS

CANKID 36-20 CONN-CINCY-BC-MIA-NAVY-TEX TECH-HOU

 

[Typhoon]

Bill Young Black Widow

* W id ow W ise guy Big Ten "S TE AL" OF THE YEAR on Indiana +17.5(-107 at 5dimes)

Iowa has just been squeaking by their opponents of late, not blowing anyone out. In fact, Iowa has won 6 straight games by 11 points or less. This is a very inflated line Saturday, and we'll take advantage with the biggest STEAL in the Big Ten this season. Iowa has a 1-point win over UNI, a 3-point win over Arkansas State and a 2-point win over Michigan this season at home. Those 3 teams are not any better than this 4-4 Indiana team this season. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 on the road, but they are 3-1 ATS in road games this season with a 38-21 win at Akron, a 33-36 loss at Michigan and a 28-29 loss at Northwestern. This is Indiana's season Saturday as a win would give them a great shot to earn a bowl bid, and national exposure by beating the only undefeated team left in the Big Ten. This is unfamiliar territory for Iowa as it's the first time they have started 8-0 in school history. Players are starting to feel the pressure, and that's why they've had so many close wins of late. If they win Saturday, it will be another nailbiter. The Hawkeyes lost starting RB Adam Robinson and starting OL Dace Richardson each for the season after both suffered injuries in their 15-13 win at Michigan State last week. These losses will force QB Ricky Stanzi to try and win this game on his own, which he cannot do. Stanzi has been prone to the interception this season, already throwing 8 picks in 8 games. The Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Indiana has won 2 of their last 3 meetings with Iowa, including a 38-20 road win in 2007 as a 9.5-point underdog. The Hoosiers are now 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road meetings with the Hawkeyes. Take Indiana and the points.

5* W ise guy ABC Saturday Night "Side" S LAU GH TER on Oklahoma State +9(-110 at bookm)

Oklahoma State has been waiting for this game, a chance to knock off unbeaten Texas. If there's one team that is going to spoil the Longhorns' perfect season, it's the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has everything you need to beat a team like Texas, a balanced offense and an outsanding defense. The Cowboys are 6-1 this season, scoring 37.0 points/game and putting up 418 yards/game of total offense. They average 186 rushing yards and 232 passing yards. Defensively, they give up 20.0 points/game but they have improved as the season has progressed. The Cowboys are giving up just 12 points/game in their last 2 with blowout wins over Missouri and Baylor. Texas has won a pair of nailbiters the last 2 years, winning 38-35 at Oky State in 2007 and 28-24 at home last year. The Cowboys are sick and tired of losing tight games to this team, and they will do something about it Saturday and likely spoil the Longhorns' perfect season. One thing is certain, they won't lose by more than a touchdown at home. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Oklahoma State is playing their best football of the season right now, perfect timing to take down the undefeated Longhorns. Take Oky State and the points.

5* W ise guy ABC Saturday Night "Side" S LAU GH TER on Oklahoma State +9(-110 at bookm)

Oklahoma State has been waiting for this game, a chance to knock off unbeaten Texas. If there's one team that is going to spoil the Longhorns' perfect season, it's the Cowboys. Oklahoma State has everything you need to beat a team like Texas, a balanced offense and an outsanding defense. The Cowboys are 6-1 this season, scoring 37.0 points/game and putting up 418 yards/game of total offense. They average 186 rushing yards and 232 passing yards. Defensively, they give up 20.0 points/game but they have improved as the season has progressed. The Cowboys are giving up just 12 points/game in their last 2 with blowout wins over Missouri and Baylor. Texas has won a pair of nailbiters the last 2 years, winning 38-35 at Oky State in 2007 and 28-24 at home last year. The Cowboys are sick and tired of losing tight games to this team, and they will do something about it Saturday and likely spoil the Longhorns' perfect season. One thing is certain, they won't lose by more than a touchdown at home. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0. The Cowboys are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October. Oklahoma State is playing their best football of the season right now, perfect timing to take down the undefeated Longhorns. Take Oky State and the points.

4* on Utah State +17(-107 at 5dimes)

Utah State has played all of their opponents very tough this season despite their 2-5 record. The Aggies are 5-2 ATS in all games this year, not losing once by more than 18 points. They have lost twice by 18 on the road to BYU and on the road to Utah, and both BYU and Utah are better than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have played a very soft schedule of late with blowout wins over Hawaii, San Jose State and New Mexico State. Look for Fresno to come out stagnant Saturday after that easy slate of games, and Utah State takes advantage by covering this monster spread, possibly winning outright. Utah State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Fresno, losing by just 2, 11 and 1 in their last 3 meetings, respectively. This will be another closely-contested ball game in their 2009 meeting and that's why taking the points is the only move here. Take Utah State and the points.

4* on Georgia Tech/Vanderbilt UNDER 47(-109 at 5dimes)

This is going to be a defensive battle between two teams who rely very heavily on the run. To put it in persective, Georgia Tech averages 56 rushing attempts/game and only 11 pass attempts. Vanderbilt averages 41 rushing attempts/game to 30 pass attempts. Vandy has been forced to throw more because they have been behind so often due to a lack of production offensively. But the Commodores are completing just 47.3% of their passes and averaging a mere 16.6 points/game offensively. Vandy won't score more than 10 points Saturday, and we don't see Georgia Tech reaching 30 in this defensive battle. The Yellow Jackets are 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Vandy is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Vandy is 12-3 UNDER (+8.7 Units) in home games off a road loss since 1992. The Commodores are 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 47 points here.
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[ARGLSG]

OCTOBER 31 2009
FRANK PATRON 50000 UNIT MUST WIN LOCK

FRANK PATRON
50000 UNIT MUST WIN LOCK

GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS -11

Paid and confirmed by me. GL all.

 

[MysteryMan]

WAYNE ROOT'S 2009 Football Upset Club

Saturday, October 31, 2009

6*Arizona State (+6½) over California
3:30 PM

4*Northwestern (+17) over Penn State
4:30 PM

Paid/Confirmed

 

[mp5070]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL

4* Best Bet = Arkansas
3* = Nebraska
3* = Idaho
2* = Ohio U.
2* = La Monroe

 

[BadInfluence+]

B Mac Friday Night Hotside Hotline

Over USC/Oregon (47) I have 48 now.

 

[moneyroll]

INDIAN COWBOY



6*Unit Play. Take Under 51 between Miami @ Wake Forest (Saturday @ 3:30pm est).

4*Unit Play.* #147.* Take Georgia Bulldogs +14.5 over Florida Gators*(Saturday @ 3:30pm est).

4 Unit Play.*Take Under 49.5 between the Ole Miss Rebels @ Auburn Tigers (Saturday @ 12:20pm est).

4 Unit Play. Take Under 47 between Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt (Saturday @ 7:30pm est).

4 Unit Play.* #188.*Take Oregon +3 over University of Southern Cal (Saturday @ 8pm est).

4 Unit Play.* #152.* Take Oregon State -9.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 4pm est).

 

[Topgun68]

Kelso:

100 unit Nevada
15 unit Boise St
5 unit Duke
4 unit Penn State
3 unit Ohio University

 

[icethekicker]

A Redd 10/31
Here are his Halloween Specials. Good luck everyone.

Saturday's Card
50 Dime Kent State

10 Dime Iowa State

10 Dime Miami (OH)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Indian Cowboy


6*Unit Play. Take Under 51 between Miami @ Wake Forest (Saturday @ 3:30pm est). This is a big game for Wake Forest as they come off some tough losses.* This team will love to control the clock and grind the ball, especially against an offensive team such as Miami.* The goal for this Wake team to have any chance in this game, is to keep the Hurricanes off the field.* Heck, in the Navy game, there were only 23 points scored total as this team went toe to toe against Navy who is a very good team on the road losing by a field goal. Now, they return home to face a very good Miami team - a Miami team who by the way who comes off a tough loss to Clemson by a score of 37-40.* Remember, this Miami team will be looking to bounce-back from that tough loss to Clemson and in particular their defense.* Wake runs a fairly simple offense with a big reliance on running the ball and time of possession*- a poor man's version of the Miami Dolphins in the NFL a bit.* But, I like Wake coming off a loss and this could be a public burial as well as over 70% are on Miami.* So, we take the under which is an indirect public fade.* After all, what that means is that if Wake is an active dog, this is a rare case in which you will get a dog/under because Wake looks for ball control and time of possession more than anything. The Under is 5-2 in the Hurricanes last seven games as a favorite and the Under is 5-1 when the Demon Deacons are Underdogs overall and home Underdogs as well.

4*Unit Play.* #147.* Take Georgia Bulldogs +14.5 over Florida Gators*(Saturday @ 3:30pm est). Florida beat this team 49-10 last year.* You don't think Georgia is going to be ready for this game?* Yes, I know Joe Cox sucks.* So, who cares about Joe Blow.* If this Georgia defense steps up in a big way, this can certainly be Georgia's way.* Keep in mind this can be a great step up opportunity for Georgia.* This team is desperate for a win and this could be the game here. Florida did not cover huge spreads against Miss State, Arkansas or Tennessee so who is to say they are going to cover the spread here against an arch rival such as Georgia.* I like the points here. as bear in mind that Georgia will absolutely fired up for this game.* When you have a team like Georgia who has nothing to lose in this game, and everything to gain, who the hell cares?* I think Georgia is going to pull out all the stops here as this team is desperate for a big win this year after the tough loss to LSU at home and certainly, Joe got some confidence in the win over Vanderbilt.* Florida has shown its weaknesses at times especially against Arkansas at home and if Georgia can score early and get a couple of things to go their way, indeed, they could cover this game with Florida barely coming back to win very similar to the Arkansas game. The Bulldogs are 5-0 as Underdogs of 10.5 or greater and the Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS after a win of twenty points or more as this team feeds off confidence.

4 Unit Play.*Take Under 49.5 between the Ole Miss Rebels @ Auburn Tigers (Saturday @ 12:20pm est). Auburn desperately needs a win here coming off the ugly loss to LSU and back to back losses. In fact, they come off three straight conference losses. The Ole Miss defense has been getting better steadily and I would not be surprised to see an Under here as the Auburn defense needs to step up big at home here as the offense is lacking.* If Ole Miss can be physical on defense, this game is likely to go under.* Yes, indeed Auburn can be an active dog here, but bear in mind that this team struggles to score against athletic defenses. If you notice this total has been going down steadily and rightfully so.* Auburn put up just ten points at LSU and even that touchdown came late, they put up 14 against Kentucky at home and Ole Miss defense is solid.* No, Ole Miss is not amazing on defense, but this team gave up 17 points to Arkansas at home, which is better than Florida, they gave up 13 to UAB, 22 to Alabama, 7 to Vandy and 16 to South Carolina.* I like this to be more of a defensive battle than folks realize and this game likely to go under. The Under is 6-0 when the Rebels are favored between a field goal and touchdown such as this week, the Under is 5-1 when the Rebels are favored on the road and the Under is 13-3 when the Tigers are an Underdog by this margin.

4 Unit Play. Take Under 47 between Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt (Saturday @ 7:30pm est). With nearly 80% on Georgia Tech here, the line is just begging you take it.* Rather, we will take the Under here.* Georgia Tech is the tops in the country in many rushing categories and they will look to pound the ball on the ground once again. Vandy is no stranger to an offense that likes to run coming from the SEC and I look for Vandy to hang in there tough.* Now, does Vandy win, no.* Does Vandy even hang within the spread, maybe not.* But, they will look to slow this game down and if Vandy has any chance in this game with their limited offense, it needs to be through their defense.* This will be very similar to the Tech vs. Virginia game which totaled at 43.* Vandy has played in four straight Unders, and 8 of 9 Unders. I like Vandy to hang tough here for a bit, Tech to take a nice lead and just run this clock out through their running game. The Under is 5-0 when the Jackets come off a win of more than 20 points, the Under is 16-4-1 for the Commodores as an Underdog and the Under is 14-3-1 for the Commodores in their last 18 home games.

4 Unit Play.* #188.*Take Oregon +3 over University of Southern Cal (Saturday @ 8pm est).* You have to take a look at games objectively.* If you look at the numbers purely, this is a game that Oregon can certainly cover, if not win outright.* Since the loss to Boise State early on, this team has dominated teams, and is looking to just kill people.* Each and ever week, they are looking to just absolutely kill people.* Its awesome to watch.* This team remembers that loss earlier in the year on national television and they are coming back with a vengeance and it is a thing of beauty to watch.* What better way than to win the PAC-10?* This team is right there as they are ranked twelfth in the country, just beat a decent Washington team 43-19 on the road, beat UCLA on the road 24-10, crushed Cal 42-3 at home and beat Utah 31-24.* Heck, this team has covered five straight ballgames. USC is good.* No one is doubting that. But, this team has had their shaky moments including barely defeating Oregon State, losing at Washington, barely defeating Ohio State and winning by a possession at Notre Dame.* I don't like going against Pete Carroll here, but I can see Oregon hanging tough here and staying with the number of winning outright.* If USC can lose at Washington, then why not Oregon? The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and the Ducks are 6-0 ATS in their last six conference games.* Quack Quack baby.

4 Unit Play.* #152.* Take Oregon State -9.5 over UCLA (Saturday @ 4pm est). Speaking of Oregon State, why not go with the Beavers here at home coming off their tough loss to USC.* Oregon State is a very good team and lost within one possession to the number four team in the country in USC.* This team is well coached and UCLA is a team with a lot of heart, but a bit undersized, and of course, they don't have the offensive capability as the Beavers have here.* I like Oregon State to do well here as they did beat Stanford by 10 at home, beat Arizona State outright on the road and beat UCLA by 28 on the road last year. UCLA has lost four straight games and consequently four straight covers.* I like Oregon State here off the loss to USC as the Beavers are 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 to 10 points, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and UCLA is 0-4 ATS as an underdog by this margin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Street Rosenthal

*200 Mississippi -4
*200 Virginia -13
*200 Florida -13
*200 USC -3
*200 Ottawa Senators Over 6

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ASA

4* - Fla Atl
3* - WI under
3* - Ole Miss
3* - USC

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Boston blackie

5 star southern miss+6.5

ark st +3

penn st-17

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Kiki Sports

3* GOY Ole Miss
2* GOM Temple

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

THE BOSS

500% "Untouchable Play" Utah
300% "Bookie Buster Parlay" GTech, LSU, Utah
200% "Dog Pound" Central Mich
100% "Silent Assassins" Cincy, Ohio St., Oklahoma

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ace Ace / allen eastman ncaa

$700.00 Take #133 Mississippi (-4) over Auburn (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
This is my College Football Game of the Month and I like this spot for a cash. Auburn has been exposed since they started playing real competition. And right now I don’t see a big difference between Auburn and Arkansas. Ole Miss hammered Arkansas last week and I think that they will do the same here. Remember that Ole Miss was a dark horse contender in the SEC this year and a contender for a BCS bowl. They have a load of talent and I think that they can lay the wood on Auburn. This one is going to be a shootout and if that’s the case I like the team with the better quarterback and the better defense. That is the Rebels. Ole Miss is on a 20-7 ATS run going back two years and they are 8-1 ATS as a favorite. Auburn is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 conference games.

$400.00 Take #139 Nebraska (-13) over Baylor (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
I think that Nebraska will bounce back on the road this week after getting embarrassed by Iowa State in Lincoln last week. Be Pelini has said that he wants to get some of the toughness back and I’m sure that he worked his boys extra hard in practice this week. Baylor has fallen apart since Robert Griffin’s injury and a once-promising season looks to be lost. Nebraska rolls.

$300.00Take #132 Texas A&M (-6) over Iowa State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
Texas A&M has to be feeling good about itself after a big win last week at Texas Tech. That was a blowout. And Iowa State also is coming off a big win at Nebraska. But I think that in a game where both teams could have a letdown that’s got to favor the home team. The home crowd won’t let them have a letdown here. A&M is better this year than the team that went on the road and won by two touchdowns last October. Now that they are at home I think that they take care of business. The Aggies are 6-1 SU in the last seven meetings.

$400.00Take ‘Under’ 47.5 Duke at Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
Duke has really come on strong in the ACC and has been somewhat of a surprise team. But I think that stops here. Virginia is a very physical team and I think that they will be able to shut down the Duke offense. Since Virginia doesn’t score much I think that this game will be somewhere around 24-13, with the home team winning. The ‘under’ is 22-10 in Duke’s last 32 road games and it is 33-15-3 in Virginia’s last 51 conference games.

$200.00 Take #205 Louisiana-Monroe (+14.5) over Troy (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
This is a lot of points for Troy to be laying in a game between the top two teams in the Sun Belt. Three of the last five meetings have been decided by one score and Monroe is 4-1 ATS I the last five meetings.

$200.00 Take #204 Florida Atlantic (-2.5) over Middle Tennessee State (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 31)
I think that this line is telling me everything I need to know. Florida Atlantic came into this season considered the stronger team and they were supposed to challenge Troy for the conference title. But they lost their first four games and people kind of wrote them off. I think that’s a mistake. FAU lost to good teams from major conferences. But they have won their last two games, both on the road, and they have revenge from a one-point loss at MTSU last year. I think that veteran quarterback Rusty Smith will get the job done here. MTSU has the better record but is the underdog here. I think that tells me who is going to win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Double Dragon

Hydra

Oregon Ducks +3

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Time

GUARANTEED VIP LOCK OF THE YEAR:

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -12 over Akron

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

COACH K

5* Oregon +3.5 (buy half)
4* Tennessee -6
3* Texas -9.5
3* Texas -2.5 and Georgia Tech -4.5 (7pt teaser)
2* Georgia +14.5
2* Duke +7.5 (buy half)