STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 5th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 9/5/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #23
•September Call-Ups Have Purpose For KC: In the span of just a few hours on a hot Tuesday afternoon, Terrance Gore drove from Arkansas to Kansas City, moved into a locker deep within Kauffman Stadium, slid into a starched white Royals jersey and took some bunting practice on the field. By nightfall, he was standing on second base in the middle of a pennant race. These are heady times for the Royals, a franchise that hasn't been to the postseason in nearly 30 years. They were clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead over Detroit in the AL Central as they took Thursday off and prepared for a road trip that takes them through the wild card-contending Yankees before a crucial three-game series against the Tigers at Comerica Park.
They're also heady times for a bunch of wide-eyed players like Gore, annual September call-ups who have arrived in Kansas City as rosters were expanded for the final month of the regular season. For as long as all but the hardiest of Royals fans can remember, this was the time of the year when the youngsters got a chance to show what they could do in the future. They'd get tossed into the lineup for meaningless games with the club far out of contention, playing in front of oceans of empty seats while trying to impress their manager and front office. This year, they've been called upon to help the Royals win a division title.
"In years past, I'd bring these guys up and give them a look, you know? See them in the field," manager Ned Yost said. "But most of these guys are going to stay in their role." Indeed, each of them has a very specific skillset that Yost is counting on: Gore is a demon on the base paths, capable of going first to third in a flash. He'll be used primarily as a pinch runner, as he was in Tuesday's game against Texas. "All I do is run. Steal bases. And look where I am now," he said. "I'm just going to get out there and run, do my best. Use my God-given ability and see what happens."
Brandon Finnegan was pitching in the College World Series for TCU earlier this year. Now, the first-round draft pick's powerful left arm will be counted upon to get left-handed hitters out. "I relieved a little bit in college. It's nothing new," said the mop-haired Finnegan, who projects as a starter in the long-term. "Then again, it's not a for-sure thing that I'm going to get to play, but if my number is called, I'm ready." Massive outfielder Carlos Peguero slugged 30 homers for Triple-A Omaha, including 15 in the month of August. He's expected to bring that same power to some pinch hitting.
"Any time you come here, to join a new baseball team, you have to set in your mind to be ready to help," Peguero said. "We're in a good position right now. All I want to do is help." All the extra players give Yost flexibility. When it comes to the bullpen, the skipper can mix and match depending on the batter, a luxury that he hasn't always had this season. That has already proven useful when his star trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and All-Star closer Greg Holland were overworked and unavailable. When it comes to position players, Yost is able to substitute more freely. He may have been reticent to use backup catcher Erik Kratz as a pinch hitter lest something happened to starter Sal Perez, but Francisco Pena's arrival gives the Royals another serviceable backstop.
These aren't players without pedigree, either. Liam Hendriks, who will work out of the bullpen, allowed one run in seven innings in a spot start against Minnesota last month. Fellow right-hander Aaron Crow is a former All-Star who earned a save Tuesday night. Johnny Giavotella is capable of playing several infield positions, and he provides another bat with pop after hitting .308 for Omaha this season. "We brought Lane Adams, who wouldn't have been here in years past, Terrance Gore, to fill a need, you know? To run the bases," Yost said. "All of these guys, the pitchers we've brought in for depth, all of these guys have specific functions." Specific goals, too. It's a near certainty that none of them will make a postseason roster. But they all want to help the Royals get there for the first time since 1985. "It means a lot to be in this with these guys," Finnegan said. "I mean, it's crazy, but it's a great experience to be able to make."
•Pedroia (Concussion) Expected To Return Friday: After missing the final two games in Tampa and all three here against the Yankees, Dustin Pedroia is expected to be back on the field and in the lineup Friday night when the Sox begin their second-to-last homestand of the season. Pedroia suffered a mild concussion last Saturday night when he took a forearm to the left side of his head in a collision at second with Rays infielder Logan Forsythe. After experiencing dizziness initially and some sleep issues thereafter, Pedroia has felt better in recent days and Thursday afternoon, he was able to go through his usual pre-game routine on the field, including a full round of batting practice. "We've got to get him one final medical exam tomorrow," said John Farrell, "but at this point, things are looking like he'll be on the field and in the lineup tomorrow." Pedroia has already fulfilled much of the protocol set up by Major League Baseball for those who have experienced concussions, passing exertion tests as well as cognitive tests on-line.
•Mets Won't Let Matt Harvey Throw At 100% Until The Spring: The season of Matt Harvey’s discontent is almost over and it will end quietly. The injured righthander, whose return from Tommy John surgery has been played out in the tabloids this season, will end his year without having faced a batter and never being allowed to throw at full strength, sources told the Daily News. Harvey will throw approximately three more bullpen sessions before being shut down for the offseason, a source said. Harvey, who was in Miami with the team this week before returning to Port St. Lucie on Thursday, would not comment on his rehab. Since Harvey first got his bandages removed after the Oct. 22 surgery and declared he was ahead of schedule, his rehab has been highly scrutinized. Despite the Mets’ public wishes for keeping Harvey and his progress out of the public eye this season, every step of his comeback, from his very first tosses − 20 throws at 60 feet in spring training − to his first bullpen session with media watching him throw off the mound for the first time, has been met with intense interest and debate.
But, now, the final steps in Harvey’s 2014 season of obvious frustration as he tried to beat the rehab process will come to an anticlimactic end. Harvey was expected to throw simulated innings Thursday in Port St. Lucie, meaning he would throw some pitches and then sit down before getting back up to throw another “inning.” The Mets are also planning to use a radar gun for one of Harvey’s remaining sessions to check his velocity and make sure he is not throwing at 100%. The team will not allow Harvey to do that until the spring. Before he is shut down, Harvey, who has thrown only fastballs, will get to throw all of his pitches: fastball, curveball, slider and changeup. “That is the point we want him to get to and then he will stop,” a team source said. “However long it takes for him to get there, but he will be done by the end of this month.” One thing Harvey will not do is face batters. That is considered the next step after completing his bullpen work and is a quick step before starting to throw in games.
•Delgado Makes Good Upon Return To Arizona Rotation: Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Randall Delgado views himself as a starting pitcher. Forty-three of his first 45 major league outings were as a starter. However, in his first two starts this season, the 6-foot-3 Panamanian allowed nine runs on 16 hits and five walks in 7 1/3 innings. Off to the bullpen Delgado went after April 10. His next 37 appearances were as a reliever. Then on Wednesday afternoon, Arizona manager Kirk Gibson announced the Diamondbacks would immediately go to a six-man rotation for the remainder of the season. The sixth starter would be Delgado. "This is important for me," Delgado said Wednesday when told he would start Thursday's finale of the four-game series in San Diego against the Padres. Delgado, 24, responded with one of the best games of his career. He allowed two hits and didn't walk a batter over five shutout innings, and the Diamondbacks beat the San Diego Padres 5-1. Thursday was the first time in his career that Delgado left a start without having allowed a run or a walk.
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Pirates-Cubs - 2:20 PM
--Worley is 1-3, 6.29 in his last four starts.
--Wada is 3-1, 2.63 in his last four starts.
--Pittsburgh lost its last four games, scoring ten runs.
--Cubs won five of their last seven games.
--Five of last seven games at Wrigley Field stayed under.
•Phillies-Nationals - 7:05 PM
--Williams is 3-0, 1.82 in four starts for Philly.
--Strasburg is 3-0, 2.70 in his last four starts.
--Philly won seven of its last ten games.
--Washington won 11 of its last 12 home games.
--Five of last seven Washington games went over.
•Braves-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Harang is 1-3, 6.08 in his last four starts.
--Cosart is 3-0, 0.65 in his last four starts.
--Atlanta is 5-6 in its last eleven games.
--Marlins lost six of their last eight games.
--Last four Cosart starts stayed under total.
•Mets-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Colon is 2-3, 4.94 in his last five starts.
--Simon is 1-6, 5.33 in his last nine starts.
--Mets won three of their last four games.
--Cincinnati lost five of its last six games.
--Five of last six Colon starts went over total.
•Cardinals-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Lackey is 1-1, 6.03 in his last five starts.
--Fiers is 4-1, 1.80 in five starts for Milwaukee.
--Cardinals won last six games, scoring 37 runs.
--Milwaukee lost its last nine games, outscored 58-18.
--Four of five Fiers starts stayed under the total.
•Padres-Rockies - 8:40 PM
--Stults is 0-2, 4.91 in his last two starts.
--Matzek is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
--Padres are 2-3 in their last five games, scoring eight runs.
--Colorado won four of its last five home games.
--Over is 4-1-1 in last six games at Coors Field.
•Diamondbacks-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Nuno is 0-1, 2.02 in his last three starts.
--Haren is 1-0, 2.07 in his last two starts.
--Arizona lost 12 of its last 18 games, but won last two.
--Dodgers lost four of their last six games.
--Six of last eight Arizona games stayed under total.
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American League
•White Sox-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Sale is 1-1, 4.74 in his last three starts.
--House is 1-0, 2.66 in his last four starts.
--White Sox lost five of their last six road games.
--Cleveland lost three of its last four games.
--Over is 4-0-1 in Chicago's last five games.
•Royals-Yankees - 7:05 PM
--Shields is 4-1, 2.95 in his last six starts.
--Pineda is 1-1, 1.93 in his last four starts.
--Royals won last three games, allowing five runs.
--New York won six of its last seven home games.
--Under is 6-1-1 in Pineda starts this season.
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Hutchison is 1-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
--Webster is 0-2, 9.42 in his last three starts.
--Toronto won its last five games, allowing nine runs.
--Red Sox lost their last eight home games, are 5-13 in last 18 overall.
--Four of last five Boston home games went over total.
•Orioles-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Chen is 2-0, 3.46 in his last four starts.
--Cobb is 2-1, 1.47 in his last five starts.
--Baltimore won nine of its last eleven games.
--Rays lost eight of their last eleven games.
--Six of last eight Baltimore games went over total.
•Mariners-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Iwakuma is 3-1, 2.70 in his last five starts.
--Baker is 2-0, 2.38 in his last couple starts.
--Seattle won four of its last five games.
--Rangers lost their last six games, scoring eleven runs.
--Five of last seven Seattle road games went over total.
•Angels-Twins - 8:10 PM
--Shoemaker is 4-0, 0.66 in his last four starts.
--Nolasco is 0-4, 7.76 in his last five starts.
--Angels won seven of their last nine games.
--Minnesota lost nine of its last twelve games.
--Over is 11-3-1 in last fifteen Minnesota games.
•Astros-Athletics - 10:05 PM
--Oberholtzer is 0-2, 7.71 in his last three starts.
--Samardzija is 1-1, 2.25 in his last two starts.
--Astros won their last four games, allowing six runs.
--Oakland lost six of its last seven games.
--Five of last seven Oakland games stayed under.
Interleague
•Giants-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Peavy is 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts.
--Porcello is 2-1, 3.04 in his last three starts.
--Giants won seven of their last nine games.
--Detroit won nine of its last thirteen games.
--Over is 4-1-1 in last six San Francisco games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Cincinnati Reds Alfredo Simon is 15-4 in his team starts against the money line (78.9%) versus an National League team with an on base percentage .315 or worse this season. The right-hander has also recorded an unblemished 13-0 record during the campaign versus NL teams with a team batting average of .250 or worse.
The 33-year-old spent his first six seasons primarily as a reliever before this year and was quite impressive early on, going 12-3 with a 2.70 ERA through his first 18 starts to earn an All-Star spot as an injury replacement. He began 2014 by allowing one run in seven innings of a 2-1 road win over the Mets on April 6. Simon hasn't been as effective since the break, however, with a 1-6 record and 4.62 ERA over his last nine starts. He is the first Cincinnati pitcher since Jack Armstrong in 1990 with at least 11 wins before the break and a 1-6 stretch afterward.
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