SPORTS ADVISORS
Connecticut (4-0, 1-2 ATS) at Louisville (2-1, 1-1 ATS)
Connecticut will try to stay perfect on the season when it visits Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium in Louisville to take on the Cardinals in the Big East opener for both squads.
The Huskies needed a late score to get past Baylor last Friday 31-28, but failed to cover as a 13-point home favorite. UConn’s only road game so far came at Temple three weeks ago, a 12-9 overtime win as a seven-point road chalk. RB Donald Brown has carried the Huskies’ offense, rushing for 716 yards and 10 TDs, while QB Tyler Lorenzen has struggled with just one TD pass against six INTs.
The Cardinals suffered an ugly 27-2 loss to instate rival Kentucky in their opener, but their confidence has grown in the last two games, a 51-10 rout of Division I-AA Tennessee Tech followed by last week’s 38-29 win over Kansas State as 5½-point home ‘dogs. Louisville RB Victor Anderson, a redshirt freshman, rushed for 176 yards and three TDs against Kansas State, while QB Hunter Cantwell passed for 274 yards and two TDs with no INTs.
UConn rallied from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Cardinals 21-17 last season, getting the cash as a three-point home ‘dog. While Louisville is 3-1 SU in four matchups with the Huskies since 2000, UConn is 3-1 ATS and has been an underdog in all four clashes.
The Huskies are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four on the highway, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 5-2 in Big East contests and 6-1 following a non-cover.
Louisville is 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and 1-4 ATS in its last five Friday night contests, but 7-3 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record.
The under is 5-1 in UConn’s last five road games and 4-1 in its last five Friday contests, but the over is 4-1 in its last five September kickoffs. For the Cardinals, the under is 18-8 in their last 26 September games, but otherwise the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-2 at home, 8-3 following a straight-up win and 4-0 against teams with a winning record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (82-76) at N.Y. Mets (88-71)
A day after rallying for their biggest victory of the season, the Mets and Michael Pelfrey (13-10, 3.70 ERA) host Florida and starter Chris Volstad (5-4, 3.10) in the opener of a season-ending, three-game series at Shea Stadium.
New York scored four runs in the final three innings to come from behind and beat the Cubs 7-6 and stay just a game behind the Phillies in the N.L. East race and stay in a deadlock with the Brewers atop the wild-card standings. The Mets are just 2-4 in their last six games, but they have gone 9-6 against Florida this season, including 4-2 at Shea. Also, New York is on runs of 17-7 at home against teams with a losing record and 5-1 on Fridays.
The Marlins have lost four of their last five and had Thursday’s game in Washington rained out. Florida is 10-3 in its last 13 games against right-handed pitching and 7-3 in its last 10 against division rivals.
The Mets are 9-2 in Pelfrey’s last 11 home starts and 6-1 when he pitches a series opener, but they are just 2-11 in his last 13 against N.L. East rivals and 1-4 in his last five overall. He’s got a 2.94 ERA in 17 home outings in 2008, but was shaky in his last two at Shea, giving up a combined eight runs (seven earned) in a 3-0 loss to the Phillies and 13-10 win over the Nationals.
Pelfrey is 1-4 with a 6.38 ERA in seven career starts against the Marlins, and the Mets have lost his last six starts against Florida, including all four this season.
Volstad is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three outings, and the rookie has gone 3-1 on the road with a 2.32 ERA. The Marlins have won three of his last four starts, the one defeat coming in his most recent outing as he gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits in five innings of a 5-2 home setback to the Phillies. In his lone career start against the Mets back on Aug. 29, Volstad allowed one run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings, but Florida fell, 5-4.
With Volstad on the hill, the under is on runs of 10-2-1 overall and 4-1 on the road, but as a team, the Marlins are on over runs of 6-2 overall, 6-0 on the road and 6-1 against right-handed starters. With Pelfrey pitching, the over is on runs of 7-3 for the Mets against N.L. East squads, 5-1 at Shea and 9-2-2 against teams with a winning record. As a team, New York is on over streaks of 5-0 overall, 20-7-1 at home and 25-9-3 against right-handed starters.
Finally, the over is 16-5-3 in the last 24 meetings in this rivalry, including 8-1-2 in the last 11 clashes at Shea and 5-2 when Pelfrey takes the mound.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago Cubs (96-62) at Milwaukee (88-71)
The Brewers are gunning for their fifth straight win and hoping to keep pace in the N.L. wild-card race as they send veteran Jeff Suppan (10-10, 5.06) to the mound at home against the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (17-6, 2.99) in the opener of a season-ending three-game set at Miller Park.
Milwaukee got a dramatic 10th-inning grand slam from Ryan Braun on Thursday to finish a sweep of the Pirates with a 5-1 victory. The win keeps the Brewers in a deadlock with the Mets in the N.L. wild-card race with three games remaining for each club.
The Cubs punched their playoff ticket by clinching the N.L. Central almost a week ago, and they’ve also wrapped up home-field advantage through the N.L. playoffs. They come into this series after splitting a four-game set in New York, including Thursday’s 7-6 loss. Lou Pineilla’s club has dominated the Brewers lately, winning six of seven, including four straight in Milwaukee in late July when the Cubs outscored the Brewers 31-11.
Chicago is 11-5 in Dempster’s last 16 starts against N.L. Central foes and is on additional runs of 36-18 overall, 20-7 on the road and 12-5 on the road against right-handers. The Brewers are 21-8 in Suppan’s last 29 starts against division rivals, but just 2-5 in his last seven at home. As a team, Milwaukee is just 6-11 in its last 17 overall and 1-6 in its last seven series openers.
Dempster has won two of his last three starts, including holding the Cardinals to one run in five innings in Sunday’s 5-1 home win. The Cubs are 6-2 in his last eight overall and they are 4-0 in his four outings against the Brewers this season. Dempster is 8-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 10 saves in his 34 career appearances against Milwaukee.
Suppan got roughed up in is last two outings, giving up a combined 11 runs in just 5 2/3 innings in road losses at Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Milwaukee has lost his last four outings as the veteran hurler has allowed 20 runs, and the last time he saw the Cubs he got rocked for 11 runs (eight earned) in 3 2/3 innings of a 19-5 loss at Wrigley Field. In 18 lifetime starts against Chicago, Suppan is 6-6 with a 3.68 ERA.
For the Cubs, the over is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 19-8 on the road and 7-3 in series openers, but the under is 8-3-1 in their last 12 against N.L. Central rivals. Milwaukee is on over runs of 8-3-5 overall, 5-0 in series openers and 7-2-4 against right-handed starters, but the under is 13-6 in Suppan’s last 19 outings versus teams with a winning record.
The over is 22-8-4 in the last 34 Cubs-Brewers clashes and 11-1-2 in the last 14 meetings in Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS and OVER
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