DR.BOB
Boise State (-2½) 27 VIRGINIA 24
This game is basically a battle between Virginia’s surprisingly good offense against Boise’s not surprisingly good defense. The ascension of Virginia quarterback Matt Johns led to the transfer of Greyson Lambert to Georgia after the spring practices and both quarterbacks are thriving. Lambert has been incredibly efficient leading Georgia’s attack and Johns has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing two very good defensive teams in UCLA and Notre Dame. The Cavaliers didn’t score a lot of points against those two opponents (just 21.5 per game) but they averaged 377 yards at 5.5 yards per play, which is very good considering the level of defenses faced in those games. Boise State’s defense is also very good, as the Broncos have yielded just 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. My math projects 375 yards for Virginia in this game and that should result in more than 21 points.
Boise State’s offense will be led by two backup quarterbacks this week with starter Ryan Finley out for a while with an injured ankle and both Brett Rypien and Thomas Stuart looked capable last week against Idaho State. Finley was averaging only 6.0 yards per pass play with 4 interceptions against just 1 touchdown pass and I don’t think the backups are likely to be any worse than that. Virginia’s defense lost a lot of stars from last year’s solid unit and so far this season the Cavaliers have has some issues on that side of the ball, allowing 6.5 yards per play and 32.3 points per game (to teams that would combine for 6.1 yppl against an average defense).
Overall the math favors Boise State by 3½ points and 51½ points so I don’t see much value on this game.
Stanford (-15½) 27 OREGON STATE 17
Stanford’s ugly 6-16 week 1 loss to Northwestern is a distant memory thanks to a 41-31 win at USC last Saturday is likely to result in a letdown here in Corvallis. Teams that upset a conference opponent as a dog of more than 7 points are just 42% ATS going back to 1980 if they’re on the road the next week, including only 31-62-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. Stanford is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Oregon State is not a bad team. The Beavers are offensively challenged to be sure but their defense has yielded just 4.4 yards per play (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and overall OSU is a bit better than average from the line of scrimmage. My ratings favor Stanford by just 13 points if quarterback Kevin Hogan is 100% healthy, which probably is not the case given that his injured ankle has him listed as questionable for this game. I think Hogan will play but there is a chance he many not or that he’ll reinjure his bad ankle. The value is on Oregon State and the situation is favorable with Stanford likely to letdown a bit off their big win over the Trojans.
Boise State (-2½) 27 VIRGINIA 24
This game is basically a battle between Virginia’s surprisingly good offense against Boise’s not surprisingly good defense. The ascension of Virginia quarterback Matt Johns led to the transfer of Greyson Lambert to Georgia after the spring practices and both quarterbacks are thriving. Lambert has been incredibly efficient leading Georgia’s attack and Johns has averaged 7.7 yards per pass play despite facing two very good defensive teams in UCLA and Notre Dame. The Cavaliers didn’t score a lot of points against those two opponents (just 21.5 per game) but they averaged 377 yards at 5.5 yards per play, which is very good considering the level of defenses faced in those games. Boise State’s defense is also very good, as the Broncos have yielded just 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. My math projects 375 yards for Virginia in this game and that should result in more than 21 points.
Boise State’s offense will be led by two backup quarterbacks this week with starter Ryan Finley out for a while with an injured ankle and both Brett Rypien and Thomas Stuart looked capable last week against Idaho State. Finley was averaging only 6.0 yards per pass play with 4 interceptions against just 1 touchdown pass and I don’t think the backups are likely to be any worse than that. Virginia’s defense lost a lot of stars from last year’s solid unit and so far this season the Cavaliers have has some issues on that side of the ball, allowing 6.5 yards per play and 32.3 points per game (to teams that would combine for 6.1 yppl against an average defense).
Overall the math favors Boise State by 3½ points and 51½ points so I don’t see much value on this game.
Stanford (-15½) 27 OREGON STATE 17
Stanford’s ugly 6-16 week 1 loss to Northwestern is a distant memory thanks to a 41-31 win at USC last Saturday is likely to result in a letdown here in Corvallis. Teams that upset a conference opponent as a dog of more than 7 points are just 42% ATS going back to 1980 if they’re on the road the next week, including only 31-62-1 ATS if their opponent is coming off a win. Stanford is a very good team on both sides of the ball but Oregon State is not a bad team. The Beavers are offensively challenged to be sure but their defense has yielded just 4.4 yards per play (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and overall OSU is a bit better than average from the line of scrimmage. My ratings favor Stanford by just 13 points if quarterback Kevin Hogan is 100% healthy, which probably is not the case given that his injured ankle has him listed as questionable for this game. I think Hogan will play but there is a chance he many not or that he’ll reinjure his bad ankle. The value is on Oregon State and the situation is favorable with Stanford likely to letdown a bit off their big win over the Trojans.
Norm HitzgesCOLLEGE
DOUBLE PLAY:
DOUBLE PLAY:
- Appalachian St. -8 Old Dominion
- Texas Tech +6 1/2 TCU
- Arkansas State +7 Toledo
- Iowa -25 North Texas
- Arkansas +7 Texas A&M
- Georgia Tech -7 1/2 Duke
- Wet Virginia -16 1/2 Maryland
- Houston -16 1/2 Texas State
- Missouri +2 1/.2 Kentucky
- So. Mississippi 22 Nebraska
- Nevada PICK Buffalo
- E. Carolina +10 Virginia Tech
- Umass +28 1/2 Notre Dame
- N. C. St. -17 So. Alabama
- San Jose -4 1/2 Fresno St.
