MLB FOX SHEETS
Favoring: FLORIDA on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (FLORIDA) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
(39-13 since 1997.) (75.0%, +33 units.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(32-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +33.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +5.1 units).
Favoring: NY METS on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (NY METS) - poor fielding team - turning 0.8 or less DP's/game on the season. against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
(49-14 since 1997.) (77.8%, +34.6 units.
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +4.5 units).
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(43-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +37.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (7-3 +5.9 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(64-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +41.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (19-6 +15.1 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(58-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +38.5 units.
The situation's record this season is: (18-6 +13.5 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%
(36-8 since 1997.) (81.8%, +27.1 units.
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%
(36-8 since 1997.) (81.8%, +27.1 units.
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Favoring: CHI WHITE SOX on the run line.
Play Against - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (DETROIT) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(39-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (7-5 +3.8 units).
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(73-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +46.9 units.
The situation's record this season is: (13-9 +4.5 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts
(70-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +46.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (16-12 +5.9 units).
Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
(125-64 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%, +66.7 units
The situation's record this season is: (32-22 +13.6 units).
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games
(59-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +37 units.
The situation's record this season is: (5-1 +3.8 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.8 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.8 units).
Favoring: FLORIDA on the run line.
Play On - All teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (FLORIDA) - average offensive team (4.3 to 4.8 runs/game) against a decent starter (ERA=3.70 to 4.20)-NL, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts
(39-13 since 1997.) (75.0%, +33 units.)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Home favorites against a 1.5 run line (Money Line =-190 to +175) (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(32-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.7%, +33.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +5.1 units).
Favoring: NY METS on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (NY METS) - poor fielding team - turning 0.8 or less DP's/game on the season. against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts
(49-14 since 1997.) (77.8%, +34.6 units.
The situation's record this season is: (6-2 +4.5 units).
Favoring: BALTIMORE on the money line.
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 (BALTIMORE) - on a good fielding streak, 10 straight games with one or less errors, with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games
(43-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.2%, +37.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (7-3 +5.9 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(64-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +41.3 units.
The situation's record this season is: (19-6 +15.1 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 5 games
(58-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.6%, +38.5 units.
The situation's record this season is: (18-6 +13.5 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%
(36-8 since 1997.) (81.8%, +27.1 units.
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams against the total (SAN DIEGO) - poor power team (<=0.9 HR's/game) against a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%
(36-8 since 1997.) (81.8%, +27.1 units.
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Favoring: CHI WHITE SOX on the run line.
Play Against - All underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =-190 to +165) (DETROIT) - poor offensive team - scoring <=4.7 runs/game on the season (AL), after allowing 9 runs or more 2 straight games
(39-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.6%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (7-5 +3.8 units).
Favoring: TAMPA BAY on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a 1.5 run line (TAMPA BAY) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season (AL)
(73-37 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.4%, +46.9 units.
The situation's record this season is: (13-9 +4.5 units).
Favoring: SEATTLE on the run line.
Play On - Home teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts
(70-38 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +46.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (16-12 +5.9 units).
Favoring: PITTSBURGH on the money line.
Play On - Home teams (PITTSBURGH) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=1 earned runs in his last 2 outings
(125-64 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.1%, +66.7 units
The situation's record this season is: (32-22 +13.6 units).
Favoring: BOSTON on the money line.
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TORONTO) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 6.00 the last 10 games
(59-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +37 units.
The situation's record this season is: (5-1 +3.8 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams against the total (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.8 units).
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Any team (CLEVELAND) - bad offensive team (<=4.5 runs/game) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after scoring 4 runs or less 6 straight games
(47-14 since 1997.) (77.0%, +31.7 units.
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.8 units).
ROBERT FERRINGO
SIDES
Take #922 Boston (-140) over Toronto (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #920 Tampa Bay (-145) over L.A. Angels (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #906 N.Y. Mets (+130) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #926 Chicago White Sox (-125) over Detroit (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #929 Texas (-105) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #913 Colorado (-130) over L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #916 San Francisco (-150) over Milwaukee (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
TOTALS
Take 'Under' 8.5 Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take 'Under' 8.5 L.A. Angels at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
SIDES
Take #922 Boston (-140) over Toronto (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #920 Tampa Bay (-145) over L.A. Angels (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #906 N.Y. Mets (+130) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #926 Chicago White Sox (-125) over Detroit (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #929 Texas (-105) over Seattle (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #913 Colorado (-130) over L.A. Dodgers (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take #916 San Francisco (-150) over Milwaukee (10 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
TOTALS
Take 'Under' 8.5 Detroit at Chicago White Sox (8 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
Take 'Under' 8.5 L.A. Angels at Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Friday, Sept. 17)
EVAN ALTEMUS
3 Units California -2.5
Cal has routinely started off strong only to fade hard in the 2nd half of the season. It appears that they are following their trend of starting strong and are coming off of a blowout home win over Colorado. The Bears have a high scoring offense and a good offensive mind in Jeff Tedford. I expect Cal to move the ball up and down the field all night against the porous defense of Nevada. The Wolfpack have really struggled when they have played BCS conference teams. Last season Missouri beat them at home and Notre Dame blew them out on the road. The season before that Texas Tech went into Reno and handled Nevada and Missouri blew them out on the road. California doesn’t have far at all to travel and Nevada doesn’t have a huge home field advantage. The Golden Bears also have some experience against Nevada’s pistol offense by facing Oregon every season. While it’s not the same, it’s still the concept of an offense with a running and elusive quarterback. Look for the talent difference and Cal’s passing attack against a very weak Nevada defense to be the deciding factors in this game.
3 Units California -2.5
Cal has routinely started off strong only to fade hard in the 2nd half of the season. It appears that they are following their trend of starting strong and are coming off of a blowout home win over Colorado. The Bears have a high scoring offense and a good offensive mind in Jeff Tedford. I expect Cal to move the ball up and down the field all night against the porous defense of Nevada. The Wolfpack have really struggled when they have played BCS conference teams. Last season Missouri beat them at home and Notre Dame blew them out on the road. The season before that Texas Tech went into Reno and handled Nevada and Missouri blew them out on the road. California doesn’t have far at all to travel and Nevada doesn’t have a huge home field advantage. The Golden Bears also have some experience against Nevada’s pistol offense by facing Oregon every season. While it’s not the same, it’s still the concept of an offense with a running and elusive quarterback. Look for the talent difference and Cal’s passing attack against a very weak Nevada defense to be the deciding factors in this game.
Point Train CFB 4-Unit - Southern Miss (-5.5) over Kansas - 0917
4-Unit
Southern Miss (-5.5) over Kansas
Friday, September 17 – 7:00 PM CST
Southern Miss catches Kansas in a terrible spot here. KU managed just 293 total yards and three points in their loss to FCS North Dakota in week one. They bounced back in a “must win” situation against the defending ACC Champs – Georgia Tech – with a 28-25 upset at home. KU was out-gained by the Yellow Jackets, but held a lead in the 4th and forced 2nd highest pass attempt total for GT in the past two years (GT is a heavy run-first team). Now they have a short week of practice and have to travel to Southern Miss for their first road game of the season.
SM was out-played at South Carolina in their first game of the season but bounced back with a huge win over FCS Prairie View A&M last week. They were able to work out the problems with their offense and now have a good feel coming into their first big home game.
SM was a 13 point underdog when they traveled to Kansas last season. SM held a lead late in the 3rd quarter but allowed two late touchdowns and lost by 7. KU lost a lot of firepower from last years team and are still trying to get associated with their new head coach. KU’s freshmen QB will struggle in his first road test in primetime Friday night and SMU will get the revenge win tonight.
4-Unit
Southern Miss (-5.5) over Kansas
Friday, September 17 – 7:00 PM CST
Southern Miss catches Kansas in a terrible spot here. KU managed just 293 total yards and three points in their loss to FCS North Dakota in week one. They bounced back in a “must win” situation against the defending ACC Champs – Georgia Tech – with a 28-25 upset at home. KU was out-gained by the Yellow Jackets, but held a lead in the 4th and forced 2nd highest pass attempt total for GT in the past two years (GT is a heavy run-first team). Now they have a short week of practice and have to travel to Southern Miss for their first road game of the season.
SM was out-played at South Carolina in their first game of the season but bounced back with a huge win over FCS Prairie View A&M last week. They were able to work out the problems with their offense and now have a good feel coming into their first big home game.
SM was a 13 point underdog when they traveled to Kansas last season. SM held a lead late in the 3rd quarter but allowed two late touchdowns and lost by 7. KU lost a lot of firepower from last years team and are still trying to get associated with their new head coach. KU’s freshmen QB will struggle in his first road test in primetime Friday night and SMU will get the revenge win tonight.
