STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 12th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 9/12/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #24
•Pedroia Has Season-Ending Surgery: The season is over for Boston Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia had surgery on his left wrist Thursday. The Red Sox said the surgery was a success but did not say when he would be able to return to baseball activities. The 31-year-old Pedroia had been bothered by a sore wrist since the beginning of the season when he landed on it while completing a double play against the Milwaukee Brewers. At that time, he was still recovering from offseason thumb surgery from an injury suffered during the World Series. Pedroia's season ends with him hitting .278 with seven home runs, 53 RBIs and six stolen bases. He is signed through the 2021 season and is owed $96.5 million over that span.
•Stanton Leaves After Hit By Pitch In Face: Miami Marlins slugger Giancarlo Stanton was hit under the left eye by a fastball and bleeding from the face as he was taken off the field in an ambulance Thursday night. The Marlins said the major league RBI leader was being treated at a hospital for a facial cut. He was also undergoing X-rays and a CT scan. Stanton was struck by an 88 mph pitch from Mike Fiers of the Milwaukee Brewers in the fifth inning. Stanton immediately fell to the ground and trainers from both teams came to his assistance. He was placed on a backboard and then a stretcher. Stanton's father was at the game and came on the field while his son was treated, and left with him in the ambulance.
It was ruled that Stanton swung at the pitch. Reed Johnson pinch-hit for Stanton and was hit in the hand by Fiers' next pitch. Casey McGehee was in the on-deck circle and starting yelling at Fiers, and both benches and bullpens emptied. There was some pushing and shoving, but it did not appear any punches were thrown. When order was restored, the umpires ejected McGehee and Marlins manager Mike Redmond. Stanton tops the NL with 37 home runs. He has 105 RBIs. The beaning quickly drew attention around the majors. After Washington beat the Mets 6-2 in New York, seven Nationals players gathered in the clubhouse to watch video of the play on a cellphone.
•Selig Forms Committee On Pace Issues: Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig expects to receive a recommendation in the next 30 to 60 days from a committee he formed to deal with the issue of pace of game. Baseball has come under scrutiny this year for its increasingly long games, which stem from a number of reasons such as batters briefly leaving the box, pitchers stepping off the mound, catchers going to the mound and the addition of expanded replay this season. Selig isn't sure what to expect from his small group in terms of suggestions. Atlanta Braves President John Schuerholz is taking part. Selig, speaking Thursday at the Giants' AT&T Park as part of his farewell ballpark tour, said this is an issue he wants to improve before he steps down on Jan. 25 and turns over the commissioner job to Rob Manfred.
"I have a small committee that's already gone to work on it," Selig said. "They're hard at work. I really want to get this done before I go because I think it's that important. We're at 3 hours, 1 minute and 47 seconds, not that I follow it closely. We've actually made a little progress lately but there are things I just think we need to do." Regarding replay, Selig acknowledges: "I was a little bit of a reluctant dragon on that. I had some concerns." But overall he considers it a positive thing. Selig said there have been a number of shorter games - in the 2 1/2-hour range - and he gets an update each Friday morning. Also Thursday, Selig said he won't argue about whether Barry Bonds is the home run king, even if Hank Aaron is a close, longtime friend.
•World Series To Open On A Tuesday: The World Series is scheduled to open on a Tuesday instead of Wednesday this year. In 2007, Major League Baseball switched from a Saturday to a Wednesday start with the goal of playing more games on nights that typically draw the largest television audiences. The new schedule will skip Thursday, a big day for TV viewing, and add a game on Friday, when audiences are generally much smaller. But the switch means that the World Series will go up against the NFL on at most one night instead of potentially three. The World Series last opened on a Tuesday in 1990. Fox also announced Thursday that five of the seven NL championship series games would be on cable network Fox Sports 1 for the first time. Only Games #1 and #6, both on Saturdays, would be on Fox.
The postseason will open with the American League wild-card game September 30th on TBS. The National League playoffs will start with the wild-card game October 1st on ESPN, which adds the round under its new contract with Major League Baseball. The regular season ends September 28th, and any tiebreakers would be played the next day. Both AL division series openers are scheduled for October 2nd on TBS. The NL division series openers will be October 3rd on FS1. The AL championship series begins October 10th on TBS and the NLCS opens the next day. The World Series is set to start October 21st at the home of the American League champion.
•Red Sox Preparing For Major Free Agent Spending: Red Sox chairman Tom Werner said today in an appearance on WEEI’s Dennis & Callahan (via WEEI.com’s Jerry Spar) that his club is prepared to spend a significant amount of money on the upcoming free agent market. “[W]e are determined to get back to being in first next year,” said Werner. Citing the “extreme flexibility” that the club was able to achieve in the famous 2012 August blockbuster with the Dodgers, Werner said that the organization is prepared to open the pocketbook this winter. “I wouldn’t say that we have limitless money, but we’ve got a lot of money to spend and we’re determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team.” Indeed, after entering this year with about $156MM in MLB payroll, about $20MM off of the team’s 2012 high water mark, Boston has just under $106MM committed for 2015 and does not have any high-dollar arbitration cases to account for. But the team’s true flexibility is all the more evident looking further into the future: it has annual guarantees of no more than about $37MM on the books past next year.
So how will the team look to allocate its future resources? In part, it seems, the organization may have added motivation to invest in established players to ensure a quality product. (Werner called this season “a nightmare,” and noted that late-season games are “just not a good experience for the fans.”) Boston went into this season hoping to make another World Series run on the back of repeat performances from veterans and steps forward for younger players. “I know it’s always difficult to break a few rookies into your lineup,” acknowledged Werner. “... But I think we probably put too much stock in the replacements that we expected to come out and perform.” Nevertheless, Werner said that he and the rest of the organization remains confident that youthful contributors like Xander Bogaerts and Mookie Betts will play an important role in the immediate future.
Immediate priorities will, of course, be dictated in part by the team’s recent actions. Dealing away free agent-to-be Jon Lester, rather than extending him, created space at the top of the rotation but also brought in Yoenis Cespedes for at least one full season at Fenway. Likewise, Allen Craig provides a veteran bounceback candidate in the outfield. And the recent signing of Cuban free agent Rusney Castillo also adds to the crowded mix of outfield options. That leaves the obvious area of immediate focus on pitching. “We know we have to add some front-line talent,” said Werner. “We spent some time over the last few weeks talking about exactly what we can do to improve. I think that our trades at the end of July attacked the fact that we had a lack of offense... But we know we need some front-line pitching talent.” It is worth noting that, in addition to parting with veteran starters Lester and John Lackey, the club will also need to replace (or bring back) key relievers such as Koji Uehara and Andrew Miller (among others).
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Betting Notes - Friday
National League
•Marlins-Phillies - 7:05 PM
--Alvarez is 0-1, 9.35 in his last two starts.
--Hamels is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts.
--Miami lost six of last nine road games; they lost Stanton last night after he got drilled in the face with a pitched ball.
--Philly lost four of its last five games.
--Under is 10-2-2 in last fourteen Hamels starts.
•Cubs-Pirates - 7:05 PM
--Wada is 0-1, 6.75 in his last two starts.
--Cole is 1-1, 4.62 in his last four starts.
--Cubs lost their last six games, scoring ten runs.
--Pittsburgh won six of its last seven games.
--Last seven Pirate home games stayed under the total.
•Nationals-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Gonzalez is 2-0, 2.88 in his last four starts.
--Gee is 2-1, 3.20 in his last three starts.
--Nationals won four of their last five games; they've won 12 games in a row at Citi Field.
--Mets won eight of their last eleven games.
--Under is 4-1-1 in Mets' last six games.
•Reds-Brewers - 8:10 PM
--Latos is 1-2, 6.00 in his last three starts.
--Lohse is 1-3, 8.20 in his last four starts.
--Reds won their last three games, allowing seven runs.
--Milwaukee lost 13 of its last 16 games, but won last two.
--Five of last seven Milwaukee games went over the total.
•Rockies-Cardinals - 8:15 PM
--De La Rosa is 0-2, 4.86 in his last three starts.
--Wainwright is 3-2, 4.50 in his last five starts.
--Colorado lost their last three games, scoring two runs.
--Cardinals lost their last three games, scoring seven runs.
--Five of last six Colorado games stayed under total.
•Padres-Diamondbacks - 9:40 PM
--Stults is 0-3, 4.67 in his last three starts.
--Nuno is 0-2, 2.15 in his last four starts.
--Padres lost seven of their last eight games.
--Arizona lost its last six games, scoring eight runs.
--10 of last 15 San Diego games stayed under total.
•Dodgers-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Ryu is 5-1, 2.24 in his last eight starts.
--Bumgarner is 4-0, 2.25 in his last four starts.
--Dodgers won five of their last six games.
--Giants won 12 of their last 15 games.
--Four of last five Dodger games went over total.
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American League
•Yankees-Orioles - 1:05 PM ET
--Greene is 1-2, 5.95 in his last four starts. McCarthy is 1-2, 5.21 in his last three starts.
--Norris is 4-1, 3.86 in his last eight starts. Gausmn is 1-3, 5.01 in his last four.
--New York lost three of its last four road games.
--Orioles won their last four games, scoring 25 runs.
--Under is 6-0-1 in last seven McCarthy starts; last seven Norris starts went over the total.
•Rays-Blue Jays - 7:05 PM
--Karns was 0-1, 7.50 in three starts for Washington LY; he is 9-9, 5.08 in 27 AAA starts this season.
--Happ is 1-3, 6.04 in his last five starts.
--Tampa Bay lost six of its last nine games.
--Blue Jays won nine of their last eleven games.
--Over is 3-0-1 in last four Tampa Bay games.
•Indians-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Carrasco is 4-0, 0.71 in his last six starts.
--Price is 1-3, 5.26 in his last four starts.
--Cleveland won five of its last seven games.
--Tigers won three of their last four games.
--Last six Carrasco starts stayed under the total.
•Twins-White Sox - 8:10 PM
--Hughes is 5-1, 2.52 in his last seven starts.
--Quintana is 1-0, 2.07 in his last couple starts.
--Minnesota lost six of its last seven games.
--White Sox won three of their last four games.
--Five of last seven White Sox games stayed under.
•Red Sox-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Webster is 0-2, 8.69 in his last four starts.
--Ventura is 3-0, 1.96 in his last three starts.
--Red Sox lost four of their last five games.
--Kansas City lost three of its last four games.
--Nine of last 12 Royal games stayed under total.
•Astros-Angels - 10:05 PM
--Oberholtzer is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts.
--Wilson is 1-1, 4.98 in his last four starts.
--Houston won eight of its last ten games.
--Angels won their last eight games, scoring 70 runs.
--Under is 8-1-1 in last ten Houston games.
•Athletics-Mariners - 10:10 PM
--Hammel is 1-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
--Paxton is 2-1, 1.33 in his last three starts.
--A's lost 13 of their last 16 road games.
--Seattle lost three of its last four games.
-Under is 4-0-1 in last five Seattle games.
Interleague
•Braves-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Wood is 3-1, 2.13 in his last six starts.
--Holland allowed one run in 14 IP in his first two '14 starts.
--Atlanta lost six of its last nine games.
--Rangers lost 11 of their last 12 games.
--Under is 8-4 in last twelve Texas games.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Baltimore Orioles Bud Norris is 12-3 in his team starts against the money line (80.0%) versus American League teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season this season. The right-hander has also been brilliant on the year recording a 14-4 mark versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. Norris is 2-0 with a 3.60 ERA against the Yankees this year, and has limited Jacoby Ellsbury to one hit in 10 career at-bats. The Orioles have won six of his last seven outings, with the 29-year-old going 10-1 against division opponents this season.
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