Kevin's Pick(s):
An afternoon winner with the Brewers getting things done for us. One play here today and I'm splitting up the 2 units between the moneyline and the run line.
1 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros - ASTROS TO WIN (-115)
1 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros - ASTROS -1.5 (+175)
Listed Pitchers: Mikolas vs Oberholtzer
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 units to win 0.87 units)
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 units to win 1.75 units)
The Texas Rangers won their final two of their most recent series vs the White Sox, but are just 2-4 in their last 6 overall and 45-69 on the season (24-36 on the road). The Astros have a slightly better record at 47-68 and 26-33 at home, but have lost three straight after winning three straight over the weekend. Tonight's starter for Texas is Miles Mikolas who is 1-4 with a 7.29 ERA, .294 OBA and 1.53 WHIP. He has pitched much better on the road, but overall he has been shaky in his 6 starts. Houston faced him back on July 7th and they scored 9 runs on 12 hits against him in just 3.1 innings. The Astros will send Brett Oberholtzer to the mound who has started to pitch pretty well. He is 4-7 with a 4.17 ERA, .291 OBA and 1.38 WHIP overall on the season, but over his last 8 starts he is 4-1 with a 3.08 ERA and the team has gone 6-2 in those 8 starts. Take note that the Rangers are 14-39 in their last 53 games overall, 6-21 in their last 27 road games, and 4-14 in their last 18 road games as an underdog. They are also 1-5 in Mikolas' last 6 starts. The Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 home games, 4-0 in Oberholtzer's last 4 starts and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Houston has won 5 straight vs Texas, with four of those five being by at least 2 runs. I'm taking the Astros to win and also putting a unit on them to win by a couple or more with a nice price on the run line.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals - GIANTS TO WIN (-114)
Listed Pitchers: Bumgarner vs. Vargas
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.75 units)
Rick Porcello did all he could do for the Tigers yesterday, but the offense couldn't scratch a run across the plate. Their offense seemingly comes and goes whenever it desires to. Today we take a look at an interleague matchup between the Giants and Royals.
By all accounts this is a game that is shaping up to be about Madison Bumgarner. I expect him to lock down the Royals in this spot Friday night and the offense should be able to take care of Jason Vargas who seen better days in his career than what he produced in his last start. Vargas has a 3.69 ERA which is fine, but most of his good starts came months ago near the beginning of the season. Vargas has an ERA of 4.76 in his last three games and got destroyed for 7 runs in his last start against the Oakland Athletics. He's been getting hit at home this season, sporting a 4.77 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His last start at home against the Angels he gave up 6 runs and 9 hits in only four innings of work. It's really been a lot of the same for Bumgarner this season at home, but he'll be far away from San Fran in Missouri for this contest. It is quite the contrast, a 5.60 ERA at home compared to 1.58 on the road. Also, while Vargas has found trouble in his most recent starts, Bumgarner allowed no runs twice in two of his last three starts, both of those on the road. Outside of one porous start against the A's, Bumgarner has given up more than 2 runs on the road only once, a start that came in Colorado. The Royals have been playing well lately, winners of their last four games, but I feel like Bumgarner and the Giants will bring that to a halt tonight in Kansas City.
Cheers,