Bob Balfe
NFL Preseason Football
Eagles +2.5 over Patriots
New England has looked like the team with the most problems this preseason, but it is just the preseason. Its obvious they don't want to get hurt and without Brady in the lineup they have no shot at winning games. Brady probably wont play tonight so it will be the Patriots backups vs Donovan McNabb. Take the Eagles.
Cowboys -5 over Texans
This game is for all the Texas bragging rights. NOT! Both teams will play their starters for at least a half and if week 3 preseason football is the closest thing to a regular season game then my money would have to be on the team with the most pro ball players from last year that have yet to win a preseason game and are at home tonight. Dallas needs a good performance from their starters so they can rest in week four of the preseason to stay healthy for opening day. Take the Cowboys at home.
Major League Baseball
Whitesox -165 over Rays
Danks/Jackson
NFL Preseason Football
Eagles +2.5 over Patriots
New England has looked like the team with the most problems this preseason, but it is just the preseason. Its obvious they don't want to get hurt and without Brady in the lineup they have no shot at winning games. Brady probably wont play tonight so it will be the Patriots backups vs Donovan McNabb. Take the Eagles.
Cowboys -5 over Texans
This game is for all the Texas bragging rights. NOT! Both teams will play their starters for at least a half and if week 3 preseason football is the closest thing to a regular season game then my money would have to be on the team with the most pro ball players from last year that have yet to win a preseason game and are at home tonight. Dallas needs a good performance from their starters so they can rest in week four of the preseason to stay healthy for opening day. Take the Cowboys at home.
Major League Baseball
Whitesox -165 over Rays
Danks/Jackson
Mr East
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets - Friday August 22, 2008 7:10 pm
Pick: 4 units MONEYLINE: Houston Astros +186
A great pitching matchup in New York tonight as Roy Oswalt of the Astros, faces off against Johan Santana of the Mets. Santana has pitched very well of late, as he carries a 1.96 ERA into this one over his last 3 games. Roy Oswalt however, has pitched even more brilliantly for the Astros, as he carries a 1.64 ERA into this one off his last 3 starts. This one may very well come down to the bullpen, and that has been the achillies heel of the Mets all season, as the bullpen has imploded on several occasions. The Mets, on the season, have blown an amazing 20 save opportunities, and with Oswalt able to match Santana, we love the long odds in a close game, and will ride the Astros here.
Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Houston Astros @ New York Mets - Friday August 22, 2008 7:10 pm
Pick: 4 units MONEYLINE: Houston Astros +186
A great pitching matchup in New York tonight as Roy Oswalt of the Astros, faces off against Johan Santana of the Mets. Santana has pitched very well of late, as he carries a 1.96 ERA into this one over his last 3 games. Roy Oswalt however, has pitched even more brilliantly for the Astros, as he carries a 1.64 ERA into this one off his last 3 starts. This one may very well come down to the bullpen, and that has been the achillies heel of the Mets all season, as the bullpen has imploded on several occasions. The Mets, on the season, have blown an amazing 20 save opportunities, and with Oswalt able to match Santana, we love the long odds in a close game, and will ride the Astros here.
FADE ALERT: THE HORRIBLE DAVID MALINSKY 1-7-1 LAST COUPLE DAYS. A HUNDRED DOLLAR PLAYER DOWN $3,112 IN JUST 2 DAYS FOLLOWING HIM. THESE SCUMBALLS CONTINUE TO DESTROY PEOPLE!
08/21/08 WIN MLB Twins (RL) 400
08/21/08 Push MLB over (ATL at NYM) N/A
08/21/08 Loss MLB Cubs (RL) -486
08/21/08 Loss MLB Royals (RL) -400
08/21/08 Loss NFL under (SF at CHI) -550
08/20/08 Loss MLB under (SD at ARI) -660
08/20/08 Loss MLB under (PIT at STL) -440
08/20/08 Loss MLB Tampa Bay Rays -480
08/20/08 Loss MLB Blue Jays (RL) -496
08/21/08 WIN MLB Twins (RL) 400
08/21/08 Push MLB over (ATL at NYM) N/A
08/21/08 Loss MLB Cubs (RL) -486
08/21/08 Loss MLB Royals (RL) -400
08/21/08 Loss NFL under (SF at CHI) -550
08/20/08 Loss MLB under (SD at ARI) -660
08/20/08 Loss MLB under (PIT at STL) -440
08/20/08 Loss MLB Tampa Bay Rays -480
08/20/08 Loss MLB Blue Jays (RL) -496
M@linsky---Fade Away
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Malinsky
4* LOS ANGELES/PHILADELPHIA Over
Picking up Greg Maddux does add a veteran presence to the pitching
rotation, and helps to fill the hole left by the absence of Brad
Penny. But it may also leave them a bit disappointed by what they are
going to see some nights. As we have written often the past two
years, there is nothing special at all about his stuff, but he has
been able to survive because Petco Park was the ideal place for
someone that works the way that he does. He could work the strike
zone and get a lot of easy contact outs in a venue where the ball
does not carry very well, and as such the past two years he was able
to work to a 3.13 tune from that mound over 181.1 innings. But it has
been an entirely different story on the road, where his allowance
soars to 5.08 over 170 frames. Tonight he works in a setting that is
not conducive for him to be successful at all, particularly with his
ability to fool the Phillie hitters lessened by their second quick
look at him, with that last being that embarrassment at San Diego
last Friday, when he only only a single run through a seven-inning
stint that required just 85 pitches.
Should there be concerns about how well he pitched that night? No ?
it was Petco doing its thing, with Philadelphia winning that game
1-0. And the run was supplied on a blast from Pat Burrell, who has
hit Maddux to a .340 lifetime tune, with three homers. In this park
they will relish the quick second-look opportunity, and also work
there way through a Dodger bullpen that has lacked consistency since
Takashi Saito went on the DL.
There will be plenty of Los Angeles runs tonight. At 134.2 innings,
off of only working 121 LY, Kyle Kendrick looks like he has hit the
wall. Two starts back the Dodgers racked him for seven runs on nine
hits in only 3.1 innings at Chavez Ravine, and he followed that up
with an awful outing against the punchless Padres in Petco, allowing
ix runs in just 3.2 frames. In those two games he has needed 154
pitches to merely get through seven innings, and he walked away with
a frightening ratio of eight walks vs. only two strikeouts. The only
time in his last five starts that he had more strikeouts than walks
came vs. a hapless Washington offense, and when a pitcher that does
not have great stuff to begin with (164 hits allowed vs. only 61
strikeouts) begins to fade, there is nothing to fall back on.
3* HOUSTON over NY METS
The oddsmakers have been forced to deal some favorites in awfully
high ranges over the course of this week, and the books have had to
sweat through most of them cashing. That is going to work well for
our purposes in the weeks ahead, as it creates the kind of value we
find in games like this one. It is one thing for a struggling side
that lacks talent and intensity to be taking on a contender, but it
is another matter entirely when we have what Houston brings to the
table tonight.
The Astros sport a winning record, and have gone on a 17-7 run in
their last 24 games. Included in that stretch was a 3-0 home sweep of
the Mets in which they out-scored them by nine runs, despite having
seven fewer outs to work with. In Roy Oswalt we have a veteran with
an ace mentality that will relish this kind of spotlight, and note
just how good Oswalt?s form has been as he makes up for lost time
following a sub-par start to the season ? it is a 3-0/1.64 over his
last three starts, and the only time that Houston has lost in his
last seven outings came when an injury forced him out of a game after
only a single inning. With Thursday off, the entire bullpen also
comes in rested and ready.
Yes, Johan Santana brings a 2-0/1.96 over his last three starts, but
when you get to face the Padres, Nationals and Pirates in succession
there is nothing all that special about the numbers. This will be a
quick ?second look? for the Astros after facing him at home on August
2nd, and in facing a left-hander for the fourth time in five games,
the adjustments are easier to make. It all adds up to the Mets being
vastly over-priced in this one.
4* SAN DIEGO/SAN FRANCISCO Under
What happens when two weak offenses meet in good pitcher?s ballparks?
Not a whole lot. After these two played to an Over in their first
head-to-head encounter on this field back on April 7th it has been a
remarkable run of nine straight Under?s. You might see an 8-1 from
other charting, but as always we cut all results off at the end of
the regulation nine innings, and on May 30th an Under 8 that was
sitting on 3-3 after nine frames eventually became a 7-3 San Diego
win.
Is the run of nine straight Under?s enough to warrant our use of
?remarkable?? Yes, if you consider that four of those games remained
Under the Total despite going into extra innings. That is a rather
neat trick. It is also what we expect to see tonight.
The Padres have been over-powered all season by quality starters, and
they have not come close to measuring Tim Lincecum yet. He has
checked them to a 1.03 tune over 26.1 innings, with a dominating
ratio of 29 strikeouts vs. only 18 hits allowed, with San Diego not
hitting a single home run. And Lincecum?s form is simply lights-out
right now, with 36 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed over his last
four starts.
Lincecum could have more than 13 wins if there was some offensive
support behind him, but once again he can not count on much. A
struggling offense will have difficulties in their first real look at
Cha Seung Baek, who they have seen for exactly one inning. Baek has
worked to a solid 3-0/2.81 on the road since becoming a Padre, and
brings solid form off of his last outing, a loss to the Phillies in
which he only allowed one earned run in six innings, and had more
strikeouts than hits allowed. And because San Diego was not in the
hunt against Brandon Webb last night, all key arms are rested and
ready from the bullpen for the latter stages.
Not only do we have a pitcher?s park tonight, but also pitcher?s
weather ? with the temperature falling into the 50?s we can remember
back to Mark Twain?s classic ?the coldest winter I ever spent was a
summer in San Francisco? line.
4* DALLAS over HOUSTON
Through the years our very best pre-season situations have been those
in which a very good team brings a sense of urgency to a game. At 0-2
the Cowboys have that in their first appearance in front of the home
fans since losing to the Giants on this field in the playoffs back in
January. And Wade Phillips is telling us just what we want to hear.
This will be treated like a regular-season affair by Dallas, which
has meant game-planning in practice this week, and the playing
rotation will have the starters on the field well into the third
quarter. Creating an additional spark is the presence of Pacman Jones
in the starting lineup, and his coverage skills are going to help to
open up even more blitz packages from the Phillips playbook. Do not
be surprised to see plenty of that happening tonight, after the
Cowboy coach criticized his own defensive play calling as being to
vanilla in last week?s poor showing at Denver.
The Texans will also play their starters into the third quarter, but
at 2-0 the scoreboard result does not bring any urgency. And because
of their struggles to find consistency running the football, it can
leave QB Matt Schaub in a precarious setting against those Dallas
blitzes. As such do not be surprised if Gary Kubiak?s game plan stays
on the conservative side, trying to avoid Schaub taking more hits
than necessary.
If this were a regular season game the line would be at least a full
field goal higher than it is. That is where the value is found for
these settings ? we have a good team ready to step to a higher level,
yet the line does not reflect it. And with the Cowboys also
remembering well LY?s 26-16 road loss in the ?Governor?s Cup? battle,
when they felt that the celebrating in Houston was a little too
exuberant, we expect them to break this one wide open.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday Malinsky
4* LOS ANGELES/PHILADELPHIA Over
Picking up Greg Maddux does add a veteran presence to the pitching
rotation, and helps to fill the hole left by the absence of Brad
Penny. But it may also leave them a bit disappointed by what they are
going to see some nights. As we have written often the past two
years, there is nothing special at all about his stuff, but he has
been able to survive because Petco Park was the ideal place for
someone that works the way that he does. He could work the strike
zone and get a lot of easy contact outs in a venue where the ball
does not carry very well, and as such the past two years he was able
to work to a 3.13 tune from that mound over 181.1 innings. But it has
been an entirely different story on the road, where his allowance
soars to 5.08 over 170 frames. Tonight he works in a setting that is
not conducive for him to be successful at all, particularly with his
ability to fool the Phillie hitters lessened by their second quick
look at him, with that last being that embarrassment at San Diego
last Friday, when he only only a single run through a seven-inning
stint that required just 85 pitches.
Should there be concerns about how well he pitched that night? No ?
it was Petco doing its thing, with Philadelphia winning that game
1-0. And the run was supplied on a blast from Pat Burrell, who has
hit Maddux to a .340 lifetime tune, with three homers. In this park
they will relish the quick second-look opportunity, and also work
there way through a Dodger bullpen that has lacked consistency since
Takashi Saito went on the DL.
There will be plenty of Los Angeles runs tonight. At 134.2 innings,
off of only working 121 LY, Kyle Kendrick looks like he has hit the
wall. Two starts back the Dodgers racked him for seven runs on nine
hits in only 3.1 innings at Chavez Ravine, and he followed that up
with an awful outing against the punchless Padres in Petco, allowing
ix runs in just 3.2 frames. In those two games he has needed 154
pitches to merely get through seven innings, and he walked away with
a frightening ratio of eight walks vs. only two strikeouts. The only
time in his last five starts that he had more strikeouts than walks
came vs. a hapless Washington offense, and when a pitcher that does
not have great stuff to begin with (164 hits allowed vs. only 61
strikeouts) begins to fade, there is nothing to fall back on.
3* HOUSTON over NY METS
The oddsmakers have been forced to deal some favorites in awfully
high ranges over the course of this week, and the books have had to
sweat through most of them cashing. That is going to work well for
our purposes in the weeks ahead, as it creates the kind of value we
find in games like this one. It is one thing for a struggling side
that lacks talent and intensity to be taking on a contender, but it
is another matter entirely when we have what Houston brings to the
table tonight.
The Astros sport a winning record, and have gone on a 17-7 run in
their last 24 games. Included in that stretch was a 3-0 home sweep of
the Mets in which they out-scored them by nine runs, despite having
seven fewer outs to work with. In Roy Oswalt we have a veteran with
an ace mentality that will relish this kind of spotlight, and note
just how good Oswalt?s form has been as he makes up for lost time
following a sub-par start to the season ? it is a 3-0/1.64 over his
last three starts, and the only time that Houston has lost in his
last seven outings came when an injury forced him out of a game after
only a single inning. With Thursday off, the entire bullpen also
comes in rested and ready.
Yes, Johan Santana brings a 2-0/1.96 over his last three starts, but
when you get to face the Padres, Nationals and Pirates in succession
there is nothing all that special about the numbers. This will be a
quick ?second look? for the Astros after facing him at home on August
2nd, and in facing a left-hander for the fourth time in five games,
the adjustments are easier to make. It all adds up to the Mets being
vastly over-priced in this one.
4* SAN DIEGO/SAN FRANCISCO Under
What happens when two weak offenses meet in good pitcher?s ballparks?
Not a whole lot. After these two played to an Over in their first
head-to-head encounter on this field back on April 7th it has been a
remarkable run of nine straight Under?s. You might see an 8-1 from
other charting, but as always we cut all results off at the end of
the regulation nine innings, and on May 30th an Under 8 that was
sitting on 3-3 after nine frames eventually became a 7-3 San Diego
win.
Is the run of nine straight Under?s enough to warrant our use of
?remarkable?? Yes, if you consider that four of those games remained
Under the Total despite going into extra innings. That is a rather
neat trick. It is also what we expect to see tonight.
The Padres have been over-powered all season by quality starters, and
they have not come close to measuring Tim Lincecum yet. He has
checked them to a 1.03 tune over 26.1 innings, with a dominating
ratio of 29 strikeouts vs. only 18 hits allowed, with San Diego not
hitting a single home run. And Lincecum?s form is simply lights-out
right now, with 36 strikeouts vs. only 12 hits allowed over his last
four starts.
Lincecum could have more than 13 wins if there was some offensive
support behind him, but once again he can not count on much. A
struggling offense will have difficulties in their first real look at
Cha Seung Baek, who they have seen for exactly one inning. Baek has
worked to a solid 3-0/2.81 on the road since becoming a Padre, and
brings solid form off of his last outing, a loss to the Phillies in
which he only allowed one earned run in six innings, and had more
strikeouts than hits allowed. And because San Diego was not in the
hunt against Brandon Webb last night, all key arms are rested and
ready from the bullpen for the latter stages.
Not only do we have a pitcher?s park tonight, but also pitcher?s
weather ? with the temperature falling into the 50?s we can remember
back to Mark Twain?s classic ?the coldest winter I ever spent was a
summer in San Francisco? line.
4* DALLAS over HOUSTON
Through the years our very best pre-season situations have been those
in which a very good team brings a sense of urgency to a game. At 0-2
the Cowboys have that in their first appearance in front of the home
fans since losing to the Giants on this field in the playoffs back in
January. And Wade Phillips is telling us just what we want to hear.
This will be treated like a regular-season affair by Dallas, which
has meant game-planning in practice this week, and the playing
rotation will have the starters on the field well into the third
quarter. Creating an additional spark is the presence of Pacman Jones
in the starting lineup, and his coverage skills are going to help to
open up even more blitz packages from the Phillips playbook. Do not
be surprised to see plenty of that happening tonight, after the
Cowboy coach criticized his own defensive play calling as being to
vanilla in last week?s poor showing at Denver.
The Texans will also play their starters into the third quarter, but
at 2-0 the scoreboard result does not bring any urgency. And because
of their struggles to find consistency running the football, it can
leave QB Matt Schaub in a precarious setting against those Dallas
blitzes. As such do not be surprised if Gary Kubiak?s game plan stays
on the conservative side, trying to avoid Schaub taking more hits
than necessary.
If this were a regular season game the line would be at least a full
field goal higher than it is. That is where the value is found for
these settings ? we have a good team ready to step to a higher level,
yet the line does not reflect it. And with the Cowboys also
remembering well LY?s 26-16 road loss in the ?Governor?s Cup? battle,
when they felt that the celebrating in Houston was a little too
exuberant, we expect them to break this one wide open.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#dddddd><TD vAlign=top>The Hitman</TD><TD vAlign=top align=right>Guaranteed Selections</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Date: Friday, August 22, 2008
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Milwaukee w/Bush -1.5 -135 8:05 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Milwaukee w/Bush -1.5 -135 8:05 EST</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
