jeff benton
1-1 yesterday MINUS 10 dimes MINUS $100. overall, 92-115-3 minus 470
Friday's Plays ...
20 DIME selection on the <b>SAN DIEGO PADRES</b> over the Brewers as these teams battle it out at Miller Park. San Diego opened as a +140 underdog, but that number has dropped to +125 to +130, so I highly encoarage you jump on this as soon as possible as I expect money to continue to pour in on the Padres. Note that you must list Wade LeBlanc as the Padres’ starteing pitcher. If LeBlanc doesn’t go, this play is VOID!
10 DIME selertion on the <b>FLORIDA MARLINS</b> over the Astros in South Beach. The Marlins are a solid -140 to -150 favorite in this contest, so make sure you shop around and get the best of the number – no sense laying more juice than you have to. Note that you must list Anibal Sanchez as Florida’s starting pitcher. If Sanchez doesn’t go, this play is VOID!
<b>Padres</b>
You’re damn right I’ll take this kind of plus money with best team in the National League and the most profitable club in all of baseball. Seriously, what do the Padres have to do to get some damn respect from the oddsmakers? They just swept a four-game series at Wrigley Field – the first time they’ve done that in the 42-year history of the franahise – and they’ve now won five in a row and 10 of 11. That includes eight straight victories against losing teams, a category the Brewers fall into.
Despite taking two games at St. Louis to start this week (before taking yesterday off), Milwaukee remains 57-64 for the season, including 28-31 at Miller Park. The last time the Brewers were at home, they lost three of four to the god-awful Diamondbacks.
So how in the world can the Brewers be favored tonight? Because they’ve got ace Yovani Gallardo on the mound. Hey, I’m not about to bag on this guy, as he’s an outstanding pitcher (as his 2.97 ERA would suggest). And he did dominate the Padres in a 2-1 road win on May 1, allowing just six hits while striking out 11 in seven innings. All this said, the Brewers are only 12-11 with Gallardo starting this year, including 6-5 at home. Speeaking of home, Gallardo is just 5-4 with a 3.62 ERA at Miller Park, compared with 6-1 and a 2.33 ERA on the road.
Besides, it’s not like Gallardo is the only quality pitcher on the mound tonight. Wade LeBlanc has pitched far better than his 7-10 record indicates, as he’s got a 3.46 ERA on the year. And LeBlanc is coming off consecutive wins over the Giants (8-2 on the road) and Pirates (4-1 at home), giving up a combined three runs, nine hits and four walks while fanning 15 in 12 2/3 innings. Those two performances are part of an incredible run for San Diego’s rotation during the team’s current 10-1 run: the starters are 10-0 with a 1.68 ERA!
One of LeBlanc’s best starts of the season came on April 29 against the Brewers, when the southpaw scatrered eight hits with no walks and six Ks in 6 1/3 innings, cruising to a 9-0 home win. Tonight, LeBlanc once again should have the upper hand against a Brewers offense that struggles against lefty pitching (.247 overall team average, including .240 at home).
A few final points to make: San Diego is on an 8-3 roll in this rivalry and it has absolutely OWNED the N.L. Central this year, winning 22 of 27 games. Going back to last year, the Padres are on a 42-19 roll against the Central, including 6-1 when LeBlanc starts. Conversely, the Brewers have lost nine of 11 to N.L. West teams, six of eight when Gallardo faces the N.L. West and five of six when Gallardo starts against winning teams.
No brainer play here, guys. Ride the red-hot Padres to their sixth straight win and 11th in their last 12 games, including their sixth win in seven games as an underdog.
<b>Marlins</b>
Sure seems like a dirt-cheap price to lay with the Marlins, who are coming off a three-game sweep in Pittsburgh to cap a 6-4 road trip. Prior to heading out on that journey, Florida edged the Cardinals 5-4, so it has won seven of its last 11.
Granted, the Marlins are a game under .500 at home this year (29-30), but their opponent tonight is one of the worst road squads in baseball (Houston is 21-34 on the highway this year and 29-64 as a visitor dating to last summer). The Astros have also wilted in the South Beach heat recently, losing eight of the last nine in Florida
Any way you slice it, Florida has the edge on the mound here, too. Anibal Sanchez has a 3.31 ERA on the season, and he’s produced five quality starts in his last six outings, giving up just 10 earned runs in 38 innings during this stretch (2.39 ERA) with 40 strikeouts against just 12 walks. And although he doesn’t have much to show for it (3-3 record), Sanchez has been filthy at home this year, allowing just 22 earned runs in 66 2/3 innings (2.97 ERA).
What about Sanchez’s career numbers against the Astros, you ask? How about two runs allowed in three starts spanning 18 2/3 innings (0.96 ERA), including a 5-1 road win back on April 22.
Meanwhile, Astros lefty J.A. Happ is coming off consecutive quality starts against the Braves and Pirates (three runs, five hits in 12 1/3 innings). But those were at home. The last time he pitched on the road, he gave up seven runs, six hits and three walks in just one inning in an 8-4 loss at St. Louis. Finally, the one thing the Marlins’ offense has been doing well lately is hitting left-handed pitchers, to the tune of a .316 batting average of the past 10 games.
In fact, with last night’s victory at Pittsburgh – they beat southpaw Paul Maholm – the Fish have won five straight games against left-handed starters. They’re also 9-3 in their last 12 home games versus southpaws, not to mention 17-6 in Sanchez’s last 23 starts as a home favorite.