STATSYSTEMS SPORTS AL PITCHING REPORT
FRIDAY, AUGUST 15th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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#965 SEATTLE @ #966 DETROIT - 7:05 PM
•Mariners LH James Paxton (2-0, 2.38 ERA, WHIP: 0.927) - Paxton has allowed three runs and 10 hits in 10 2/3 innings over two starts without a decision since returning from the disabled list. The 25-year-old British Columbia native is 5-0 with a 1.93 ERA in eight major-league outings while opponents are batting .186 against him. Torii Hunter homered last September against Paxton, who permitted three runs on five hits over five innings of a no-decision against the Tigers.
•Tigers RH Rick Porcello (13-7, 3.11 ERA, WHIP: 1.144) - Porcello gave up one run in two-plus innings of relief at the end of a 19-inning contest at Toronto last Sunday to suffer his second consecutive defeat. The 25-year-old New Jersey native has yielded three or fewer runs in nine of his last 10 starts, including five in a row. Cano is 7-for-18 against Porcello, who stands 4-2 with a 3.48 ERA in seven career starts versus the Mariners – none this season.
--KEY STAT: PORCELLO is 23-8 (+14.1 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was PORCELLO 5.1, OPPONENT 3.6.
--PORCELLO is 40-17 (+19.3 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PORCELLO 5.6, OPPONENT 3.9.
--PORCELLO is 9-1 against the run line (+9.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was PORCELLO 4.4, OPPONENT 2.9.
--PORCELLO is 45-24 against the run line (+25.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PORCELLO 5.5, OPPONENT 4.1.
--PORCELLO is 16-5 OVER (+10.8 Units) in home games versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was PORCELLO 6.2, OPPONENT 4.5.
#967 BALTIMORE @ #968 CLEVELAND - 7:05 PM
•Orioles LH Wei-Yin Chen (12-4, 3.90 ERA, WHIP: 1.268) - Chen's personal five-game winning streak came to an abrupt end Aug. 6 at Toronto, which got to him for four runs and eight hits in five innings. He was scheduled to start Tuesday against New York but had his turn pushed back due to a rainout. Chen will have a chance to improve upon his last meeting with Cleveland on May 22 when he gave up five runs in 6 2/3 innings while striking out just one batter. Overall, Chen has been reached for 11 runs in 13 frames over two career starts versus the Indians.
--KEY STAT: CHEN is 11-2 (+9.9 Units) against the money line versus an American League team with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 4.8, OPPONENT 2.6.
--CHEN is 12-3 against the run line (+10.2 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was CHEN 5.5, OPPONENT 3.6.
•Indians RH Corey Kluber (13-6, 2.46 ERA, WHIP: 1.072) - Kluber has a remarkable 45 strikeouts against four walks during his five-game run of dominance and has limited opponents to only 23 hits in 40 innings in that stretch. He struck out nine in seven scoreless innings at Baltimore on May 24 to help Cleveland to a 9-0 rout. The Stetson University product, who tossed six scoreless frames at the Yankees his last time out, has won each of his last four home starts and is 7-2 overall at Progressive Field.
--KEY STAT: KLUBER is 23-5 (+18.7 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 5.9, OPPONENT 3.1.
--KLUBER is 11-0 (+11.0 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 6.7, OPPONENT 2.6.
--KLUBER is 13-2 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KLUBER 6.4, OPPONENT 2.9.
#969 NY YANKEES @ #970 TAMPA BAY - 7:10 PM
•Yankees RH Brandon McCarthy (7-11, 4.31 ERA, WHIP: 1.346) - McCarthy lost for the first time in six starts with the Yankees on Saturday despite limiting Cleveland to two runs over 6 1/3 innings. The 6-7 California native tossed at least six innings five times with New York, boasting a 4-1 record with a 2.21 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings. McCarthy, who has walked only six with the Yankees, is 4-2 with a 2.93 ERA in 10 appearances (nine starts) against Tampa Bay.
--KEY STAT: MCCARTHY is 17-29 (-15.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was MCCARTHY 3.7, OPPONENT 4.8.
•Rays RH Alex Cobb (7-6, 3.41 ERA, WHIP: 1.191) - Cobb has turned his season around, allowing two runs or fewer in six consecutive starts while going 5-0 in his last eight outings. The Boston native has not given up a homer in four straight contests and owns 102 strikeouts over 108 1/3 frames. Mark Teixeira is 2-for-6 with a homer versus Cobb, who has not faced the Yankees this year but is 4-1 in seven career starts with a 2.01 ERA against them.
--KEY STAT: COBB is 17-8 against the run line (+12.1 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was COBB 4.3, OPPONENT 2.6.
#971 HOUSTON @ #972 BOSTON - 7:10 PM
•Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (10-8, 3.07 ERA, WHIP: 1.219) - Keuchel had a run of strong starts come to an end against Texas on Sunday, when he was reached for five runs on six hits and three walks in six innings to suffer a loss. The 26-year-old surrendered a total of four runs - two earned - in 23 innings over his previous three turns. Keuchel has made one career appearance against Boston out of the bullpen last season, when he was knocked around for four runs while recording two outs.
--KEY STAT: KEUCHEL is 12-3 OVER (+9.0 Units) on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was KEUCHEL 4.7, OPPONENT 6.5.
•Red Sox RH Clay Buchholz (5-7, 5.99 ERA, WHIP: 1.569) - Buchholz bounced back from a pair of horrific outings with a strong effort in Los Angeles on Saturday, holding the Angels to three runs on six hits in eight innings. The Texas native yielded seven earned runs over five innings in each of his previous two starts. Buchholz’s best start of the season came at Houston the day before the All-Star break, when he scattered three hits and struck out 12 without walking a batter in a shutout.
--KEY STAT: BUCHHOLZ is 8-15 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUCHHOLZ 4.4, OPPONENT 5.0.
--BUCHHOLZ is 10-1 OVER (+9.0 Units) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was BUCHHOLZ 4.9, OPPONENT 5.8.
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#973 LA ANGELS @ #974 TEXAS - 8:05 PM
•Angels RH Garrett Richards (12-4, 2.54 ERA, WHIP: 1.015) - Richards has managed just one victory in his last five starts despite a 2.48 ERA, giving up one or fewer earned runs three times during that span. The 26-year-old allowed four runs and 18 hits over 19 innings against Texas this season and is 5-1 with a 3.58 ERA in his career versus the Rangers. Elvis Andrus is 8-for-24 against Richards, with 157 strikeouts over 159 2/3 innings.
--KEY STAT: RICHARDS is 12-3 UNDER (+8.4 Units) in road games versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was RICHARDS 3.3, OPPONENT 2.5.
--RICHARDS is 15-4 UNDER (+10.2 Units) in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was RICHARDS 3.5, OPPONENT 3.1.
•Rangers RH Nick Martinez (2-8, 5.22 ERA, WHIP: 1.636) - Martinez snapped a seven-game losing streak by limiting Houston to two runs over five innings in a 6-2 victory on Sunday. The 24-year-old rookie allowed two runs and three hits in seven innings June 21 and tossed 2 2/3 scoreless frames of relief May 4 against the Angels without getting a decision. Hank Conger is 2-for-3 against Martinez, who has yielded 104 hits over 88 innings.
#975 KANSAS CITY @ #976 MINNESOTA - 8:10 PM
•Royals LH Danny Duffy (7-10, 2.57 ERA, WHIP: 1.089) - Duffy recorded his second straight win despite allowing four runs in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-4 victory over San Francisco on Sunday. The 25-year-old issued six free passes to elevate his pitch count in his last meeting with the Twins on July 30 but walked away with a no-decision. Duffy has allowed one run on four hits over 5 2/3 frames in each of his last two meetings with Minnesota.
--KEY STAT: DUFFY is 11-0 against the run line (+11.3 Units) in road games versus poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was DUFFY 5.6, OPPONENT 3.5.
•Twins RH Ricky Nolasco (5-7, 5.90 ERA, WHIP: 1.621) - Sidelined with a strained right elbow since July 6, Nolasco is expected to get the nod after working out the kinks during a two-start rehabilitation assignment with Single-A Cedar Rapids. The 31-year-old turned in quite the performance against Kansas City on July 1, permitting one run on eight hits in six innings en route to a 10-2 victory. Nolasco owns a 2-1 career mark versus the Royals - although his 24 hits allowed over 19 2/3 innings leaves a bit to be desired.
--KEY STAT: NOLASCO is 18-29 (-18.3 Units) against the money line in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.4.
--NOLASCO is 8-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 6.3, OPPONENT 2.6.
--NOLASCO is 22-5 against the run line (+15.2 Units) versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the second half of the season since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 5.8, OPPONENT 3.4.
--NOLASCO is 32-15 OVER (+16.3 Units) in home games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game since 1997. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOLASCO 4.4, OPPONENT 5.4.
#977 TORONTO @ #978 CHI WHITE SOX - 8:10 PM
•Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (7-3, 3.34 ERA, WHIP: 1.124) - Stroman rebounded from a dismal performance with a stellar one, but settled for a no-decision despite allowing two runs on four hits in nine innings against the Tigers on Saturday. The 23-year-old rookie continues to keep the ball in the park, doing so in his last five outings while permitting just five homers in 86 1/3 innings. Stroman also received a no-decision in his lone career outing versus Chicago, yielding two runs on as many hits in 6 2/3 innings June 28.
•White Sox RH Hector Noesi (6-8, 4.67 ERA, WHIP: 1.363) - Like Stroman, Noesi also turned in a strong performance in his last outing before settling for a no-decision. The 27-year-old Dominican allowed one unearned run on five hits in 6 1/3 innings versus his former team of Seattle on Saturday. Noesi has yet to record a decision in five relief appearances against Toronto, but has allowed the opposition to bat .289 in 11 1/3 innings.
--KEY STAT: NOESI is 10-5 (+8.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was NOESI 4.1, OPPONENT 3.8.
Interleague
#979 OAKLAND @ #980 ATLANTA - 7:35 PM
•Athletics RH Jason Hammel (9-9, 3.60 ERA, WHIP: 1.191) - Hammel struggled in his first four starts since joining Oakland but picked it up in his last two turns, allowing a total of one run in 12 innings. The 31-year-old had little trouble with National League lineups prior to the deal, posting an 8-5 record with a 2.98 ERA for the Cubs. Hammel started at Atlanta on May 9 and yielding two runs on seven hits in seven innings without factoring in the decision.
--KEY STAT: HAMMEL is 9-1 (+9.4 Units) against the money line against National League East opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 5.0, OPPONENT 2.6.
--HAMMEL is 10-3 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 5.1, OPPONENT 2.6.
--HAMMEL is 13-1 against the run line (+11.3 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to -135 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 4.9, OPPONENT 2.6.
--HAMMEL is 8-1 OVER (+7.1 Units) versus an National League team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was HAMMEL 5.0, OPPONENT 3.5.
•Braves LH Alex Wood (8-9, 3.08 ERA, WHIP: 1.231) - Wood is enjoying a strong run of late and has surrendered a total of three earned runs in 20 1/3 innings in his last three starts. The 23-year-old struck out a career-high 12 in 7 1/3 innings while allowing one run in a win over Washington on Sunday. Wood is facing Oakland for the first time and is 2-3 with a 2.10 ERA in eight career games - three starts - in interleague play.
--KEY STAT: WOOD is 6-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was WOOD 2.2, OPPONENT 3.0.
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