DAVE MALINSKY
GAME: Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals Aug 15, 2008 7:35PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: over
REASON FOR PICK: 4* COLORADO/WASHINGTON Over
Now that we have word that Garret Atkins will be returning to the lineup for Colorado tonight it is time to step in here, while being particularly thankful for the early marketplace in the creation of a 9 as a ?win? result for the play.
Part of the formula here is rather simple - it is most rare to find the likes of Jorge de la Rosa and Tim Redding priced at 8.5. The only way to lose the play is for one of the teams to be held to three runs or less (and even then we can still win with the other side breaking the game open), and that is asking an awful lot for these two - particularly on a quick second-look situation for each offense.
De la Rosa has worked to a 1-5/7.83 on the road this season, despite the fact that none of those appearances came against a team that had previously seen him. Now not only do the Nationals get a return look after facing him at Coors Field 10 days ago, but they also see left-handed fast-balls for the second night in a row, after taking on Oliver Perez last night. No, this is not a good offensive team, but the market has more than compensated for that in this line range, and they can be successful under these circumstances.
So can the Rockies against Redding. They got to him for four runs on six hits and three walks over five innings 11 days ago, and that was par for the course for the Washington right-hander since the All Star break, where he has toiled to a 1-4/7.96 , allowing 36 hits and 12 walks in just 26 innings. Three times in those five games he has thrown more than 20.0 Pitches-Per-Inning, something he had only done twice in 20 starts before the break, and a guy that needs help from his defense now has to cope with the weak glove and limited range of Ronnie Belliard at shortstop.
With neither starter bringing dominating form, nor the ability to eat many innings, and a couple of mediocre middle relief corps, getting the runs to cash this ticket is not asking much at all
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