MLB WRITE UP
Hot Pitchers
-- Hamels is 3-0, 2.35 in his last three starts. Karstens has a 2.91 RA in his last four starts.
-- Mets won Niese's last four home starts (3-0, 2.42).
-- Wolf is 1-1, 2.28 in his last three starts.
-- Cubs won last four Dempster starts (3-0, 3.75).
-- Collmenter is 2-1, 2.82 in four starts this season.
-- Nicasio allowed one run in seven IP in winning his major league debut.
-- Ogando is 5-0, 2.33 in ten starts this season.
-- Britton is 0-0, 1.71 in his last three home starts. Toronto won both of Villanueva's starts, scoring 16 runs (1-0, 6.30).
-- Buchholz is 3-0, 2.08 in his last six starts. Outman is 1-0, 2.07 in his first two '11 starts.
-- Buehrle is 3-1, 2.57 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver has a 1.71 RA in his last three starts.
Cold Pitchers
-- Lowe is 0-1, 5.64 in his last four starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 6.52 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 11.09 in his last four starts. Kuroda is 0-2, 9.28 in his last couple starts.
-- Garcia allowed 15 runs in 8.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Maya allowed four runs in 4.2 IP in his first '11 start, vs San Diego.
-- Moseley is 0-3, 6.49 in his last five starts. Houston lost Happ's last three starts (0-2, 4.76).
-- Cain is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
-- Masterson is 0-3, 5.19 in his last four starts.
-- Oliver allowed three runs in six IP in his first big league start.
-- Pavano is 0-3, 6.21 in his last six starts. Kansas City bullpen is 0-3 in Duffy starts (0-0, 4.11).
-- Nova is 1-1, 7.71 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas allowed 11 runs in 7.2 IP in his last two starts. Sonnanstine is 0-1, 6.46 in four starts this season.
Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Phillies' last six road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Citi Field.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati's last eleven home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Milwaukee's last eleven road games.
-- Eight of last eleven St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Washington road games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten San Diego games.
-- Under is 13-6 in Colorado's last nineteen road games.
-- Five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Five of last six Boston home games went over the total.
-- WhiteSox' last four home games all went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels' last five home games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Tampa Bay's last eleven road games.
Hot Teams
-- Pirates are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Braves won three of their last four road games.
-- Cincinnati is 9-3 in its last dozen home games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last nine home games.
-- Arizona won 16 of its last 20 games. Nationals won three of four.
-- Astros won six of their last seven road games.
-- Detroit won its last four games. White Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven road games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last 11 games.
-- Bronx won its last four games, allowing six runs.
-- Mariners won 12 of their last 15 games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five road games.
-- Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 16 road games. Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- San Diego lost six of its last seven home games.
-- Colorado lost ten of its last thirteen games. Giants lost six of their last nine games.
-- Cleveland lost six of its last nine games, three in row at home.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six games, but won last five at home.
-- Red Sox lost their last four games, allowing 27 runs. Oakland lost last three games, outscored 19-5.
-- Kansas City lost nine of its last twelve games. Minnesota lost ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Angels are just 9-11 in their last twenty home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost nine of its last thirteen games.
Hot Pitchers
-- Hamels is 3-0, 2.35 in his last three starts. Karstens has a 2.91 RA in his last four starts.
-- Mets won Niese's last four home starts (3-0, 2.42).
-- Wolf is 1-1, 2.28 in his last three starts.
-- Cubs won last four Dempster starts (3-0, 3.75).
-- Collmenter is 2-1, 2.82 in four starts this season.
-- Nicasio allowed one run in seven IP in winning his major league debut.
-- Ogando is 5-0, 2.33 in ten starts this season.
-- Britton is 0-0, 1.71 in his last three home starts. Toronto won both of Villanueva's starts, scoring 16 runs (1-0, 6.30).
-- Buchholz is 3-0, 2.08 in his last six starts. Outman is 1-0, 2.07 in his first two '11 starts.
-- Buehrle is 3-1, 2.57 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver has a 1.71 RA in his last three starts.
Cold Pitchers
-- Lowe is 0-1, 5.64 in his last four starts.
-- Nolasco is 1-1, 6.52 in his last three starts.
-- Arroyo is 0-2, 11.09 in his last four starts. Kuroda is 0-2, 9.28 in his last couple starts.
-- Garcia allowed 15 runs in 8.1 IP in his last two starts.
-- Maya allowed four runs in 4.2 IP in his first '11 start, vs San Diego.
-- Moseley is 0-3, 6.49 in his last five starts. Houston lost Happ's last three starts (0-2, 4.76).
-- Cain is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
-- Masterson is 0-3, 5.19 in his last four starts.
-- Oliver allowed three runs in six IP in his first big league start.
-- Pavano is 0-3, 6.21 in his last six starts. Kansas City bullpen is 0-3 in Duffy starts (0-0, 4.11).
-- Nova is 1-1, 7.71 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas allowed 11 runs in 7.2 IP in his last two starts. Sonnanstine is 0-1, 6.46 in four starts this season.
Totals
-- Over is 4-1-1 in Phillies' last six road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven games at Citi Field.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in Cincinnati's last eleven home games.
-- Under is 8-3 in Milwaukee's last eleven road games.
-- Eight of last eleven St Louis home games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Washington road games went over the total.
-- Under is 6-3-1 in last ten San Diego games.
-- Under is 13-6 in Colorado's last nineteen road games.
-- Five of last six Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven games at Camden Yards went over the total.
-- Five of last six Boston home games went over the total.
-- WhiteSox' last four home games all went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.
-- Under is 4-0-1 in Angels' last five home games.
-- Over is 7-3-1 in Tampa Bay's last eleven road games.
Hot Teams
-- Pirates are 9-5 in their last fourteen games.
-- Braves won three of their last four road games.
-- Cincinnati is 9-3 in its last dozen home games.
-- Cardinals won six of their last nine home games.
-- Arizona won 16 of its last 20 games. Nationals won three of four.
-- Astros won six of their last seven road games.
-- Detroit won its last four games. White Sox won five of their last six home games.
-- Blue Jays won five of their last seven road games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last 11 games.
-- Bronx won its last four games, allowing six runs.
-- Mariners won 12 of their last 15 games.
Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games.
-- Mets lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Dodgers lost four of their last five road games.
-- Milwaukee lost 12 of its last 16 road games. Marlins lost three of their last four games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- San Diego lost six of its last seven home games.
-- Colorado lost ten of its last thirteen games. Giants lost six of their last nine games.
-- Cleveland lost six of its last nine games, three in row at home.
-- Orioles lost five of their last six games, but won last five at home.
-- Red Sox lost their last four games, allowing 27 runs. Oakland lost last three games, outscored 19-5.
-- Kansas City lost nine of its last twelve games. Minnesota lost ten of its last thirteen games.
-- Angels are just 9-11 in their last twenty home games.
-- Tampa Bay lost nine of its last thirteen games.
SPORTSWAGERS
RANDALL THE HANDLE
Toronto +116 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
The O’s return home from a 1-5 road trip a little worse for the wear after hitting .212 and scoring 15 runs. Four of those runs came in one inning. There’s almost a two run gap between Zach Britton’s ERA (2.93) and xERA (4.56) and after a whole lot of good fortune, Britton’s flaws are being exposed. In his last two starts against K.C and at Oakland, Britton allowed 19 hits and nine earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has a low strikeout rate, questionable command, a strand rate of 79% and that’s why he’s not nearly as good as his surface stats suggest. The league has seen him for a third of a season, the video has been studied and now his confidence might be a little shaky too. The Jays come into this one batting .332 over its past six games. They’ve scored an eye-opening nine runs or more in four of their past five games. Carlos Villanueva has struck out 30 batters in 34 frames while walking 12. He’s pitched mostly in relief this year but has now started two games in a row with one great start and one not so great start. He has four good pitches that he’ll use at any time in the count. He has a WHIP of 0.93 and an ERA of 2.62 and while he’s not as good as those numbers suggest, he’s definitely as serviceable as Britton. That leaves the Jays offense and bullpen v the O’s offense and bullpen and that is a complete mismatch and it’s not in the O’s favor.
Play: Toronto +116 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +129 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
Very nice that the South Side went into Boston and swept the Red Sox. They have Boston’s number for some odd reason just like the Tigers have the White Sox number. Detroit has won 11 of the past 12 games against Chicago and they’ll face Mark Buehrle here. Buehrle is coming off a 4-2 loss to the red-hot Jays but what that pitching line doesn’t tell you is that every ball wasn’t just hit, it was roped and a lot of them just hit guys in the glove. He still surrendered nine hits and three runs in seven frames but threw 120 pitches and the results were extremely flattering. Buehrle’s skills are marginal at best. He has 35 k’s in 74 innings and a xERA of 5.08. His groundball rate is 40% but even that is regressing, as it’s 35% over the last month. In 2010, Buehrle was shaky, but should have been worse. Control still elite, but strikeout rate is dragging and he’s now in his third year trend of xERA and skills erosion. Current Tigers have seen Buehrle a ton, 277 times to be exact and have a BA of .277 against him. Take away Miguel Cabrera’s 2-20 and that number goes way up. Buehrle is ripe to get whacked and that’s all there is to it. Andrew Oliver made his first start of the year last week vs Red Sox. He went six full and gave up three runs and takes a step down in class with his first start of the year out of the way. Oliver has a good 90-95 mph fastball, a hard slurvy curveball, potentially plus slider, and a decent change-up. His power stuff can be particularly tough on LH batters who scored only 2 runs in 14 IP at Triple-A. Oliver struggles with location and command, which gets him in trouble. In 2010 he walked 63 batters in 152.1 IP between the majors and minors and this year he's walked 20 in 51.2 IP at Toledo. Oliver has big-time potential. If he can throw strikes consistently and keep the ball down in the strike zone, he has the stuff to be a solid starter. It’s a gamble to play a pitcher that struggles with command but Oliver (with his great arm) and the Tigers are a worthy gamble against a team they own and against a pitcher that is likely to give up plenty.
Play: Detroit +129 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +113 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
The Astros have won four in a row and five straight on the road. The Padres are in last place and have lost six of seven at Petco and are 9-21 overall at home. It gets better. The Astros have outscored opponents 32-17 during their five-game winning streak away from home, batting .323 with nine homers in those contests. Conversely, the Padres are hitting .199 at home while averaging 2.3 runs on the season. They’ve been even worse during a 2-7 stretch, batting .181 and totaling 15 runs in the nine games. Advantage Astros. Now to the pitchers. J.A. Happ v Dustin Moseley. Moseley has a 3.18 ERA after 11 starts but that’s nothing but a mirage. Low strikeout rate pitchers can survive if they have pinpoint control; he doesn't, and xERA (4.85) shows the result. This stiff has 20 walks and 29 k’s in 65 frames. His low ERA has been driven by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. Fact is, Moseley’s skills are horrible. J.A. Happ has more to prove. He generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. After missing the first half of 2010 with a forearm strain and getting traded to Houston, he delivered another solid half-season. Are we convinced he's for real? Not really. With a career 3.37 ERA in almost 300 IP, Happ would seem to have answered any doubters. But his skills still raise concern. He walks too many and has a heavily tilted fly-ball profile. However, he gets strikeouts (52 in 64 IP) and shuts down LHers and that’s more than we can say about Moseley. Advantage Astros.
Play: Houston +113 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +119 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
Much prefer the Reds against lefties than righties and besides that, Cinci is playing with fire just about every game it seems. They keep falling behind by multiple runs and they keep rallying to win. That’s not normal and those comeback attempts with success cannot last over an extended period of time. Prior to losing to Colorado and Ubaldo Jiminez, 3-0, the Dodgers had won three in a row and scored seven or more runs in all three games. That bodes well for them here, as they absolutey thrive at Great American. In six games here last year, the Dodgers scored 47 times and not much has changed in terms of their line-up. Bronson Arroyo is 1-4 at Great American with a 5.79 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park and that is a bad marriage. Arroyo has six strikeouts over his last three starts and over that stretch he’s given up 26 hits in 12.2 frames. Overall, Arroyo has surrendered 14 bombs in 62 frames to go along with a BAA of .309. In the month of May, Arroyo’s ERA was 7.64 with a BAA of .336. Hiroki Kuroda’s BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) is trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in dominance (strikeout rate). Very consistent, with triple-digit BPV in every month but May over the past two years. With high GB rate and excellent control, Kuroda is more appealing than Arroyo and it's not close.
Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
NHL
Boston @ VANCOUVER
About 1 in every 20 people gave the Bruins a chance of winning this series. They played nose to nose with the Canucks in game one and had more quality scoring chances but could not find the back of the net. Luongo was good, Thomas was lucky again and the result was a low scoring affair that could have gone wither way. With a take-back of +173, the Bruins are more attractive than laying –188 with the Canucks but Vancouver always seem to bounce back strongly after every loss and after every close call. Once again, we can’t trust Tim Thomas and believe he’ll get whacked for a bunch of goals at any time. The Bruins proved without any doubt they can play with this team but their putrid power-play and shaky goaltending has us backing off.
No bets.
RANDALL THE HANDLE
Toronto +116 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
The O’s return home from a 1-5 road trip a little worse for the wear after hitting .212 and scoring 15 runs. Four of those runs came in one inning. There’s almost a two run gap between Zach Britton’s ERA (2.93) and xERA (4.56) and after a whole lot of good fortune, Britton’s flaws are being exposed. In his last two starts against K.C and at Oakland, Britton allowed 19 hits and nine earned runs in just 11.2 innings. He has a low strikeout rate, questionable command, a strand rate of 79% and that’s why he’s not nearly as good as his surface stats suggest. The league has seen him for a third of a season, the video has been studied and now his confidence might be a little shaky too. The Jays come into this one batting .332 over its past six games. They’ve scored an eye-opening nine runs or more in four of their past five games. Carlos Villanueva has struck out 30 batters in 34 frames while walking 12. He’s pitched mostly in relief this year but has now started two games in a row with one great start and one not so great start. He has four good pitches that he’ll use at any time in the count. He has a WHIP of 0.93 and an ERA of 2.62 and while he’s not as good as those numbers suggest, he’s definitely as serviceable as Britton. That leaves the Jays offense and bullpen v the O’s offense and bullpen and that is a complete mismatch and it’s not in the O’s favor.
Play: Toronto +116 (Risking 2 units).
Detroit +129 over CHICAGO Pinnacle
Very nice that the South Side went into Boston and swept the Red Sox. They have Boston’s number for some odd reason just like the Tigers have the White Sox number. Detroit has won 11 of the past 12 games against Chicago and they’ll face Mark Buehrle here. Buehrle is coming off a 4-2 loss to the red-hot Jays but what that pitching line doesn’t tell you is that every ball wasn’t just hit, it was roped and a lot of them just hit guys in the glove. He still surrendered nine hits and three runs in seven frames but threw 120 pitches and the results were extremely flattering. Buehrle’s skills are marginal at best. He has 35 k’s in 74 innings and a xERA of 5.08. His groundball rate is 40% but even that is regressing, as it’s 35% over the last month. In 2010, Buehrle was shaky, but should have been worse. Control still elite, but strikeout rate is dragging and he’s now in his third year trend of xERA and skills erosion. Current Tigers have seen Buehrle a ton, 277 times to be exact and have a BA of .277 against him. Take away Miguel Cabrera’s 2-20 and that number goes way up. Buehrle is ripe to get whacked and that’s all there is to it. Andrew Oliver made his first start of the year last week vs Red Sox. He went six full and gave up three runs and takes a step down in class with his first start of the year out of the way. Oliver has a good 90-95 mph fastball, a hard slurvy curveball, potentially plus slider, and a decent change-up. His power stuff can be particularly tough on LH batters who scored only 2 runs in 14 IP at Triple-A. Oliver struggles with location and command, which gets him in trouble. In 2010 he walked 63 batters in 152.1 IP between the majors and minors and this year he's walked 20 in 51.2 IP at Toledo. Oliver has big-time potential. If he can throw strikes consistently and keep the ball down in the strike zone, he has the stuff to be a solid starter. It’s a gamble to play a pitcher that struggles with command but Oliver (with his great arm) and the Tigers are a worthy gamble against a team they own and against a pitcher that is likely to give up plenty.
Play: Detroit +129 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +113 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle
The Astros have won four in a row and five straight on the road. The Padres are in last place and have lost six of seven at Petco and are 9-21 overall at home. It gets better. The Astros have outscored opponents 32-17 during their five-game winning streak away from home, batting .323 with nine homers in those contests. Conversely, the Padres are hitting .199 at home while averaging 2.3 runs on the season. They’ve been even worse during a 2-7 stretch, batting .181 and totaling 15 runs in the nine games. Advantage Astros. Now to the pitchers. J.A. Happ v Dustin Moseley. Moseley has a 3.18 ERA after 11 starts but that’s nothing but a mirage. Low strikeout rate pitchers can survive if they have pinpoint control; he doesn't, and xERA (4.85) shows the result. This stiff has 20 walks and 29 k’s in 65 frames. His low ERA has been driven by an unsustainable 80% strand rate. Fact is, Moseley’s skills are horrible. J.A. Happ has more to prove. He generated plenty of doubt with a sub-3.00 ERA in his rookie season in Philadelphia. After missing the first half of 2010 with a forearm strain and getting traded to Houston, he delivered another solid half-season. Are we convinced he's for real? Not really. With a career 3.37 ERA in almost 300 IP, Happ would seem to have answered any doubters. But his skills still raise concern. He walks too many and has a heavily tilted fly-ball profile. However, he gets strikeouts (52 in 64 IP) and shuts down LHers and that’s more than we can say about Moseley. Advantage Astros.
Play: Houston +113 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +119 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
Much prefer the Reds against lefties than righties and besides that, Cinci is playing with fire just about every game it seems. They keep falling behind by multiple runs and they keep rallying to win. That’s not normal and those comeback attempts with success cannot last over an extended period of time. Prior to losing to Colorado and Ubaldo Jiminez, 3-0, the Dodgers had won three in a row and scored seven or more runs in all three games. That bodes well for them here, as they absolutey thrive at Great American. In six games here last year, the Dodgers scored 47 times and not much has changed in terms of their line-up. Bronson Arroyo is 1-4 at Great American with a 5.79 ERA and it’s no mystery as to why. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher in an extreme hitter’s park and that is a bad marriage. Arroyo has six strikeouts over his last three starts and over that stretch he’s given up 26 hits in 12.2 frames. Overall, Arroyo has surrendered 14 bombs in 62 frames to go along with a BAA of .309. In the month of May, Arroyo’s ERA was 7.64 with a BAA of .336. Hiroki Kuroda’s BPV** (for explanation of BPV see bottom of write-ups) is trending in the right direction, headlined by another step up in dominance (strikeout rate). Very consistent, with triple-digit BPV in every month but May over the past two years. With high GB rate and excellent control, Kuroda is more appealing than Arroyo and it's not close.
Play: Los Angeles +119 (Risking 2 units).
NHL
Boston @ VANCOUVER
About 1 in every 20 people gave the Bruins a chance of winning this series. They played nose to nose with the Canucks in game one and had more quality scoring chances but could not find the back of the net. Luongo was good, Thomas was lucky again and the result was a low scoring affair that could have gone wither way. With a take-back of +173, the Bruins are more attractive than laying –188 with the Canucks but Vancouver always seem to bounce back strongly after every loss and after every close call. Once again, we can’t trust Tim Thomas and believe he’ll get whacked for a bunch of goals at any time. The Bruins proved without any doubt they can play with this team but their putrid power-play and shaky goaltending has us backing off.
No bets.
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-June 3rd
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[922] Boston |8*|Bet B|-175|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
This is the "MLB Tops System" (3 game chase)
MLB Tops LOSSES- 0
A. 0 wins
B. 0 wins
C. 0 wins
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[922] Boston |8*|Bet B|-175|B+0|Network N/A|7:10 pm EST
This is the "MLB Tops System" (3 game chase)
MLB Tops LOSSES- 0
A. 0 wins
B. 0 wins
C. 0 wins
HRC PREMIUM MLB ACTION-June 3rd
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[914] San Diego |8*|Bet B|-120|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
[923] Detroit |5*|Bet A|-165|B+1.5 RL|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST
[928] LA Angels |5*|Bet A|-135|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
This is the "Baseball Infinity REV System" (3 game chase)
Baseball Infinity REV LOSSES- 0
A. 0 wins
B. 0 wins
C. 0 wins
Capper: JSM Sports (Handicappers Paradise)
Play Strengths
*****************
2* Action
5* Selection (Rated)
8* Premium (Rated)
10* Diamond (Rated)
*****************
[914] San Diego |8*|Bet B|-120|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
[923] Detroit |5*|Bet A|-165|B+1.5 RL|Network N/A|8:10 pm EST
[928] LA Angels |5*|Bet A|-135|B+0|Network N/A|10:05 pm EST
This is the "Baseball Infinity REV System" (3 game chase)
Baseball Infinity REV LOSSES- 0
A. 0 wins
B. 0 wins
C. 0 wins
401 k sports - matt dennehy
Thurs recap 1-1 -0.2 units
2* Mavs/Heat over 186.5(win)
2* STL/SF under 8.5(loss)
The rookie for the Cardinals pitched much better than his line suggested. He was let down by his defense big time. Theriot bobbled a sure double play ball in the 5th inn and it led to the 1st 2 SF runs. Then to lead off the 6th , the Center Fielder and left fielder couldn't decide who wanted to catch a fly ball that fell in between them. Finally when Lynn got taken out he left 2 runners on base w/2 outs and the pen let those runners score. That is a tough outing for a rookie. I am glad the bullpens were awful & in the end those runs didn't matter.
The heat/Mavs total was closer than I thought it would be, but it really was never in doubt. I am just glad to see the Mavs comeback and stick it to the heat for celebrating.
Fri plays
2* Cleveland +105 over Texas(7pm) - In Texas they are already talking about finding a way to limit the innings on Ogando's arm. All b/c he had his 1st bad outing of the year last time out. That kind of talk usually happens only once a pitcher shows signs of a slowdown in arm speed or a drop in MPH on a fastball. The Rangers pen was used heavily last night, so Ogando will be leaned on to last at least 6 or 7. Masterson is also bouncing back from a tough effort last time out. Masterson has had success vs these hitters. They are just a combined 14-55 lifetime vs Masterson w/just 2 HR and 6 RBI in basically 2 games worth of innings.
2* LA Dodgers +115 over Cincy(7pm) - LA has had their way w/Cincy the last 6 years. They are 35-16 vs the Reds in the last 51 games. Kuroda is 3-0 vs the reds over the L2 years. The dodgers pen, which has been their achilles heel this year, is pitching much better now. This will support their offense, which is much better than originally thought. Arroyo hasn't had much success vs the Dodger hitters:
Gwynn 4-6
Blake 6-16
Loney 8-22
Kemp 6-17
Gibbons 5-15
Miles 10-31
Furcal 9-28
Ethier 8-25
That is a lot of guys with significant AB's who are hitting over .300 vs Arroyo. Bronson has struggled now his L4 starts w/13.5 ERA.
2* White sox -135over Detroit(8pm)- Mark Buerhle has had a ton of success vs the Tigers over his career. He has a career win % of 64%. The key has been his ability to hold down the Big Tiger bats over the years. Cabrera is just 2-20 off Mark B, Boesch is just 1-8, Inge 14-60, and while he isn't playing tonight Ordonez was just 6-39 off Buerhle. Keep those guys from doing damage and watch the wins pile up. Andrew Oliver is going through a learning curve right now and looks like he may be one of those AAAA pitchers right now, a guy who is too good for the minors but isn't ready for the big show yet. Homer Bailey and Charlie Morton were those type of pitchers that come to mind like Oliver. With the way the White sox played the redsox tough, they certainly look poised to break out.
Thurs recap 1-1 -0.2 units
2* Mavs/Heat over 186.5(win)
2* STL/SF under 8.5(loss)
The rookie for the Cardinals pitched much better than his line suggested. He was let down by his defense big time. Theriot bobbled a sure double play ball in the 5th inn and it led to the 1st 2 SF runs. Then to lead off the 6th , the Center Fielder and left fielder couldn't decide who wanted to catch a fly ball that fell in between them. Finally when Lynn got taken out he left 2 runners on base w/2 outs and the pen let those runners score. That is a tough outing for a rookie. I am glad the bullpens were awful & in the end those runs didn't matter.
The heat/Mavs total was closer than I thought it would be, but it really was never in doubt. I am just glad to see the Mavs comeback and stick it to the heat for celebrating.
Fri plays
2* Cleveland +105 over Texas(7pm) - In Texas they are already talking about finding a way to limit the innings on Ogando's arm. All b/c he had his 1st bad outing of the year last time out. That kind of talk usually happens only once a pitcher shows signs of a slowdown in arm speed or a drop in MPH on a fastball. The Rangers pen was used heavily last night, so Ogando will be leaned on to last at least 6 or 7. Masterson is also bouncing back from a tough effort last time out. Masterson has had success vs these hitters. They are just a combined 14-55 lifetime vs Masterson w/just 2 HR and 6 RBI in basically 2 games worth of innings.
2* LA Dodgers +115 over Cincy(7pm) - LA has had their way w/Cincy the last 6 years. They are 35-16 vs the Reds in the last 51 games. Kuroda is 3-0 vs the reds over the L2 years. The dodgers pen, which has been their achilles heel this year, is pitching much better now. This will support their offense, which is much better than originally thought. Arroyo hasn't had much success vs the Dodger hitters:
Gwynn 4-6
Blake 6-16
Loney 8-22
Kemp 6-17
Gibbons 5-15
Miles 10-31
Furcal 9-28
Ethier 8-25
That is a lot of guys with significant AB's who are hitting over .300 vs Arroyo. Bronson has struggled now his L4 starts w/13.5 ERA.
2* White sox -135over Detroit(8pm)- Mark Buerhle has had a ton of success vs the Tigers over his career. He has a career win % of 64%. The key has been his ability to hold down the Big Tiger bats over the years. Cabrera is just 2-20 off Mark B, Boesch is just 1-8, Inge 14-60, and while he isn't playing tonight Ordonez was just 6-39 off Buerhle. Keep those guys from doing damage and watch the wins pile up. Andrew Oliver is going through a learning curve right now and looks like he may be one of those AAAA pitchers right now, a guy who is too good for the minors but isn't ready for the big show yet. Homer Bailey and Charlie Morton were those type of pitchers that come to mind like Oliver. With the way the White sox played the redsox tough, they certainly look poised to break out.
GC MLB Dog
Friday Card has 2 Big MLB System Plays. The NL. East Total of the Month from a 100% System and a Late Night play that has a perfect system subset that beats wins by over 4 runs per game. Thursday card cashed 2 of 3. Free MLB Live dog system side below.
On Friday the free MLB Dog play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 923 at 8:10 eastern. Chicago fits the system below which plays against home favorites off a road dog win after scoring 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home favored win and scored 4 or less runs. They system doesn't not appear to be too impressive at just 6-10. However looking deeper we that home favorites of less than -140 have lost 5 of 6 times in this system. Even better the Tigers have won all 3 games vs Chicago this season and 11 of 16 in Divisional play. They are also a solid 13-4 vs Left handed pitchers. Chicago has lost both times this season when playing off 3 wins and 3 of 4 after having a day off. The Sox have Buehrle going tonight and he was roughed up pretty good in his one start this season vs the Tigers. He allowed 6 earned runs in 5+ innings. Tonight he opposes A. Oliver who was decent in his first start offering a quality 6 innings vs Boston. Look for the Tigers to take game one of the series tonight here in Chicago. On Friday I have the NL East Total of the Month from a 100% Totals system + a 21-3 MLB Late system play that also has a perfect subset system that wins by over 4 runs per game. Thursday card cashes 2 of 3. For the Free MLB Play take the Detroit Tigers. GC
SU: 6-10 (0.1 rpg) average line: -145 / +135 on / against: -$810 / +$710 ROI: -34.8% / +44.4%
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Grounders Fly Balls Team left on base
Team: 4.3 9.2 0.88 3.1 5.9 8.8 10.8 7.6
Opp: 4.2 8.6 0.50 3.3 6.9 10.9 8.8 7.7
Recap Date Site Team Starter Opp Starter Score SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
view 06-27-2005 home Red Sox Arroyo - R Indians Millwood - R 0-7 -7 L -2.5 U 3-8 2-0 0-7 -180 9.5 9
view 07-14-2005 home Padres Lawrence - R Diamondbacks Vazquez - R 0-6 -6 L -1.0 U 5-11 1-0 0-6 -135 7.0 9
view 09-19-2005 home Rockies Kim - R Padres Lawrence - R 7-8 -1 L 3.5 O 15-14 3-0 1-2 -115 11.5 9
view 06-20-2006 home White Sox Vazquez - R Cardinals Mulder - L 20-6 14 W 16.0 O 24-16 0-1 18-1 -150 10.0 9
view 08-10-2006 home Rangers Eaton - R Mariners Pineiro - R 8-2 6 W -0.5 U 14-5 0-1 6-2 -145 10.5 9
view 04-27-2007 home Tigers Robertson - L Twins Ortiz - R 3-5 -2 L 0.0 P 9-8 0-0 2-2 -155 8.0 9
view 10-11-2007 home Diamondbacks Webb - R Rockies Francis - L 1-5 -4 L -1.5 U 9-8 1-0 1-4 -125 7.5 9
view 06-30-2008 home Cardinals Lohse - R Mets Maine - R 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 10-7 2-3 6-0 -110 8.5 9
view 08-21-2008 home Angels Lackey - R Twins Baker - R 1-2 -1 L -5.5 U 5-10 2-0 1-1 -160 8.5 10+
view 09-01-2008 home Dodgers Maddux - R Padres Young - R 5-2 3 W -0.5 U 9-7 0-1 3-1 -160 7.5 9
view 10-02-2008 home Rays Shields - R White Sox Vazquez - R 6-4 2 W 1.5 O 11-7 0-0 3-2 -180 8.5 9
view 10-10-2008 home Rays Shields - R Red Sox Matsuzaka - R 0-2 -2 L -6.0 U 4-7 0-0 0-2 -120 8.0 9
view 06-08-2009 home Rangers Feldman - R Blue Jays Janssen - R 3-6 -3 L -1.0 U 9-12 1-1 0-4 -145 10.0 9
view 07-15-2010 home Giants Lincecum - R Mets Dickey - R 2-0 2 W -5.0 U 7-6 0-0 2-0 -175 7.0 9
view 09-06-2010 home Brewers Gallardo - R Cardinals Westbrook - R 6-8 -2 L 5.5 O 10-7 1-1 1-6 -125 8.5 9
view 04-14-2011 home Athletics Gonzalez - L Tigers Coke - L 0-3 -3 L -4.5 U 3-4 1-0 0-3 -150 7.5 9
06-03-2011 home White Sox Buehrle - L Tigers Oliver - L -135 9.0
Friday Card has 2 Big MLB System Plays. The NL. East Total of the Month from a 100% System and a Late Night play that has a perfect system subset that beats wins by over 4 runs per game. Thursday card cashed 2 of 3. Free MLB Live dog system side below.
On Friday the free MLB Dog play is on the Detroit Tigers. Game 923 at 8:10 eastern. Chicago fits the system below which plays against home favorites off a road dog win after scoring 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a home favored win and scored 4 or less runs. They system doesn't not appear to be too impressive at just 6-10. However looking deeper we that home favorites of less than -140 have lost 5 of 6 times in this system. Even better the Tigers have won all 3 games vs Chicago this season and 11 of 16 in Divisional play. They are also a solid 13-4 vs Left handed pitchers. Chicago has lost both times this season when playing off 3 wins and 3 of 4 after having a day off. The Sox have Buehrle going tonight and he was roughed up pretty good in his one start this season vs the Tigers. He allowed 6 earned runs in 5+ innings. Tonight he opposes A. Oliver who was decent in his first start offering a quality 6 innings vs Boston. Look for the Tigers to take game one of the series tonight here in Chicago. On Friday I have the NL East Total of the Month from a 100% Totals system + a 21-3 MLB Late system play that also has a perfect subset system that wins by over 4 runs per game. Thursday card cashes 2 of 3. For the Free MLB Play take the Detroit Tigers. GC
SU: 6-10 (0.1 rpg) average line: -145 / +135 on / against: -$810 / +$710 ROI: -34.8% / +44.4%
Runs Hits Errors Walks Strike Outs Grounders Fly Balls Team left on base
Team: 4.3 9.2 0.88 3.1 5.9 8.8 10.8 7.6
Opp: 4.2 8.6 0.50 3.3 6.9 10.9 8.8 7.7
Recap Date Site Team Starter Opp Starter Score SUm W/L OUm O/U Hits Errors BL Line Total Innings
view 06-27-2005 home Red Sox Arroyo - R Indians Millwood - R 0-7 -7 L -2.5 U 3-8 2-0 0-7 -180 9.5 9
view 07-14-2005 home Padres Lawrence - R Diamondbacks Vazquez - R 0-6 -6 L -1.0 U 5-11 1-0 0-6 -135 7.0 9
view 09-19-2005 home Rockies Kim - R Padres Lawrence - R 7-8 -1 L 3.5 O 15-14 3-0 1-2 -115 11.5 9
view 06-20-2006 home White Sox Vazquez - R Cardinals Mulder - L 20-6 14 W 16.0 O 24-16 0-1 18-1 -150 10.0 9
view 08-10-2006 home Rangers Eaton - R Mariners Pineiro - R 8-2 6 W -0.5 U 14-5 0-1 6-2 -145 10.5 9
view 04-27-2007 home Tigers Robertson - L Twins Ortiz - R 3-5 -2 L 0.0 P 9-8 0-0 2-2 -155 8.0 9
view 10-11-2007 home Diamondbacks Webb - R Rockies Francis - L 1-5 -4 L -1.5 U 9-8 1-0 1-4 -125 7.5 9
view 06-30-2008 home Cardinals Lohse - R Mets Maine - R 7-1 6 W -0.5 U 10-7 2-3 6-0 -110 8.5 9
view 08-21-2008 home Angels Lackey - R Twins Baker - R 1-2 -1 L -5.5 U 5-10 2-0 1-1 -160 8.5 10+
view 09-01-2008 home Dodgers Maddux - R Padres Young - R 5-2 3 W -0.5 U 9-7 0-1 3-1 -160 7.5 9
view 10-02-2008 home Rays Shields - R White Sox Vazquez - R 6-4 2 W 1.5 O 11-7 0-0 3-2 -180 8.5 9
view 10-10-2008 home Rays Shields - R Red Sox Matsuzaka - R 0-2 -2 L -6.0 U 4-7 0-0 0-2 -120 8.0 9
view 06-08-2009 home Rangers Feldman - R Blue Jays Janssen - R 3-6 -3 L -1.0 U 9-12 1-1 0-4 -145 10.0 9
view 07-15-2010 home Giants Lincecum - R Mets Dickey - R 2-0 2 W -5.0 U 7-6 0-0 2-0 -175 7.0 9
view 09-06-2010 home Brewers Gallardo - R Cardinals Westbrook - R 6-8 -2 L 5.5 O 10-7 1-1 1-6 -125 8.5 9
view 04-14-2011 home Athletics Gonzalez - L Tigers Coke - L 0-3 -3 L -4.5 U 3-4 1-0 0-3 -150 7.5 9
06-03-2011 home White Sox Buehrle - L Tigers Oliver - L -135 9.0
