Malinsky
GAME: Texas Rangers @ New York Mets Jun 13, 2008 7:10PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Texas Rangers
4* TEXAS over NY METS
The Rangers are a far better offensive team than the Mets. Scott Feldman is pitching better than Oliver Perez. This line shows what reputations can mean in the marketplace.
The Met reputation remains high because of the pre-season expectations, but the bottom line is that they are 31-34, playing without key cogs Ryan Church and Moises Alou, and sending a below average starting pitcher and struggling bullpen to the mound to face one of the hottest lineups in the game. The Rangers are not just potent, but also patient, rating #4 in the Major?s in walks, and that puts them in good stead against Oilver Perez. who continues to labor in terms of finding the strike zone. Perez is also just 2-4/6.80 over eight appearances following that misleading good start to the season, with 33 walks over 43.1 innings in that span.
As for the bullpen, not only has the middle relief corps been inconsistent, but Billy Wagner has now blown three consecutive save opportunities, and off of 55 pitches the last two days is almost assuredly to be held out of this one. That means Willie Randolph has to roll a lot of dice in the latter innings to get this game home, particularly with Aaron Heilman also sidelined because of his fatigue rating (51 pitches in working each of the las three games).
Meanwhile Scott Feldman has not earned much respect with a 1-2/4.31, and those numbers are ordinary enough that few will take a deeper look. Yet for those that do there is value to be found. He has worked at least six full innings for seven straight starts, and over his last five sports a terrific WHIP of 1.09. But despite pitching that well, and having one of the best offenses in the game behind him, Feldman did not get a single win in that span. That gives us the best of it two different ways - we not only get an under-valued performer in the marketplace, but we also catching a timing element as the pendulums of the sport come into play.
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