SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver +110 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
In our series assessment we were dead wrong and it’s not going to prevent us from the truth. The truth is, the Sharkies are not only outmatched, but they’re in a huge psychological hole too. The Canucks are feeling it in a way that they know they can beat this team badly. Vancouver is faster, they’re bigger and they’re playing at an elite confidence level. Even after falling behind in both games you can sense it was only a matter of time before the Canucks were going to tie it and eventually go ahead. Every time a Shark hits a Canuck, the Canucks come back with a hit that has twice the impact. Joe Thornton and Logan Couture are playing some great hockey but everyone else is not close to that pair’s level. Everyone on the Canucks is playing great hockey from the Sedin twins to the fourth line and that’s the difference. Vancouver has stumbled somewhat in this year’s playoffs in that they had a chance to bury both the Blackhawks and Preds early in the series. They likely played about four more games than they should have but instead of hurting them it has helped them in this series. The Canucks have the look of a killer. They don’t want to leave even a glimmer of hope for the Sharks. They have to smell a wounded prey and go in for the kill. The Sharks are more than likely going down in four straight and if they do win one game it’s more than likely going to be in game four than in game three. The Canucks look stronger with each passing period while the Sharks look weaker. San Jose’s state of mind is not a good one either, as they know they can’t beat this intruder and they’re right. Play: Vancouver +110 (Risking 2 units).
Vancouver +110 over SAN JOSE Pinnacle
In our series assessment we were dead wrong and it’s not going to prevent us from the truth. The truth is, the Sharkies are not only outmatched, but they’re in a huge psychological hole too. The Canucks are feeling it in a way that they know they can beat this team badly. Vancouver is faster, they’re bigger and they’re playing at an elite confidence level. Even after falling behind in both games you can sense it was only a matter of time before the Canucks were going to tie it and eventually go ahead. Every time a Shark hits a Canuck, the Canucks come back with a hit that has twice the impact. Joe Thornton and Logan Couture are playing some great hockey but everyone else is not close to that pair’s level. Everyone on the Canucks is playing great hockey from the Sedin twins to the fourth line and that’s the difference. Vancouver has stumbled somewhat in this year’s playoffs in that they had a chance to bury both the Blackhawks and Preds early in the series. They likely played about four more games than they should have but instead of hurting them it has helped them in this series. The Canucks have the look of a killer. They don’t want to leave even a glimmer of hope for the Sharks. They have to smell a wounded prey and go in for the kill. The Sharks are more than likely going down in four straight and if they do win one game it’s more than likely going to be in game four than in game three. The Canucks look stronger with each passing period while the Sharks look weaker. San Jose’s state of mind is not a good one either, as they know they can’t beat this intruder and they’re right. Play: Vancouver +110 (Risking 2 units).
DAVID MALINSKY
4* BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON UNDER 8.5
The runs are not easy to find here. As we have noted in bucking the Washington offense through both Side and Total plays over the past week, they do not have a “+” bat at any positions (“+” being defined as someone hitting 10 percent above the league average at their given position), and the numbers are reaching some truly futile points – they have been shut out three times in the past five games, four over the past 10, and seven for the season. That puts them on pace to get shut out 27 times! We do not call for much of that to change tonight – the fact that they get to add a DH is not all that much of a boost for this roster. That means a chance for the steady Jake Arrieta to stay on track – he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts, and note that while his ERA has only dropped from LY’s 4.66 to the current 4.03 other indicators are even better – his Hits per 9 and W’s per 9 are significantly down, while his K’s Per 9 have taken an explosive leap from 4.66 to 8.06.
Also making a major leap this season is a now-healthy Jason Marquis. We believe the best thing to do with his injury-riddled 2010 campaign is to just throw it out. He tried to pitch while hurt to show that he merited the contract that Washington had offered him, and it led to a couple of disastrous showings. But he is back to full health now, and that means throwing strikes (of pitchers that have worked at least 50 IP his W’s per 9 of 1.68 places him at #10), and getting ground-ball outs (a ratio of 2.24:1, with only three HR’s over 53.1 frames). He can continue his form against an injury-depleted Baltimore lineup that could manage just one run in 15 innings vs. the Yankees on Wednesday, and could not score at all until C. C. Sabathia left the game last night. Meanwhile getting blown out on Thursday gave Buck Showalter a chance to rest his key late-inning arms off of Wednesday’s marathon, while a talented Washington bullpen also has all key arms rested and ready.
4* BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON UNDER 8.5
The runs are not easy to find here. As we have noted in bucking the Washington offense through both Side and Total plays over the past week, they do not have a “+” bat at any positions (“+” being defined as someone hitting 10 percent above the league average at their given position), and the numbers are reaching some truly futile points – they have been shut out three times in the past five games, four over the past 10, and seven for the season. That puts them on pace to get shut out 27 times! We do not call for much of that to change tonight – the fact that they get to add a DH is not all that much of a boost for this roster. That means a chance for the steady Jake Arrieta to stay on track – he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his nine starts, and note that while his ERA has only dropped from LY’s 4.66 to the current 4.03 other indicators are even better – his Hits per 9 and W’s per 9 are significantly down, while his K’s Per 9 have taken an explosive leap from 4.66 to 8.06.
Also making a major leap this season is a now-healthy Jason Marquis. We believe the best thing to do with his injury-riddled 2010 campaign is to just throw it out. He tried to pitch while hurt to show that he merited the contract that Washington had offered him, and it led to a couple of disastrous showings. But he is back to full health now, and that means throwing strikes (of pitchers that have worked at least 50 IP his W’s per 9 of 1.68 places him at #10), and getting ground-ball outs (a ratio of 2.24:1, with only three HR’s over 53.1 frames). He can continue his form against an injury-depleted Baltimore lineup that could manage just one run in 15 innings vs. the Yankees on Wednesday, and could not score at all until C. C. Sabathia left the game last night. Meanwhile getting blown out on Thursday gave Buck Showalter a chance to rest his key late-inning arms off of Wednesday’s marathon, while a talented Washington bullpen also has all key arms rested and ready.
