Steve Merril
MLB
(3% play) OVER 9 -115 (Padres/Brewers) (Friedrich/Guerra) - 8:10 pm ET #907
San Diego beat Milwaukee 3-0 on Thursday, but we expect a higher scoring game on Friday night. The Padres will send Christian Friedrich to the mound tonight. My numbers project a rough outing for Friedrich in this game. He is slated to give up 3.9 runs with a whopping 7.16 ERA and an ugly 1.76 WHIP this evening. Friedrich also projects to have a weak 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers. Friedrich has given up 8 hits in just 23 at-bats against Milwaukee’s lineup in his career. The Brewers have hit .348 with a .791 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Friedrich. He is backed by an inconsistent San Diego bullpen that has a weak 4.49 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season.
Milwaukee will start Junior Guerra in this game. My numbers project Guerra to get hit hard by the Padres tonight. Guerra is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a weak 4.33 ERA in this game. In two starts this season, Guerra has given up 4 earned runs in each outing while earning a terrible 6.00 ERA in those games. He has allowed 11 hits in just 12 innings of work. Last season, Guerra had an ugly 6.35 ERA. Milwaukee's pitching has been terrible all season, leading to a 23-11 Over mark in all games. The Brewers are 12-5 Over at home where they are allowing 5.5 runs per game and a .296 opponent's batting average, where the Milwaukee bullpen owns a terrible 5.25 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Look for a high-scoring game between the Padres and Brewers on Friday night.
Play OVER (Friedrich/Guerra) as a 3% play.
MLB
(3% play) OVER 9 -115 (Padres/Brewers) (Friedrich/Guerra) - 8:10 pm ET #907
San Diego beat Milwaukee 3-0 on Thursday, but we expect a higher scoring game on Friday night. The Padres will send Christian Friedrich to the mound tonight. My numbers project a rough outing for Friedrich in this game. He is slated to give up 3.9 runs with a whopping 7.16 ERA and an ugly 1.76 WHIP this evening. Friedrich also projects to have a weak 1.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Brewers. Friedrich has given up 8 hits in just 23 at-bats against Milwaukee’s lineup in his career. The Brewers have hit .348 with a .791 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Friedrich. He is backed by an inconsistent San Diego bullpen that has a weak 4.49 ERA and 1.42 WHIP this season.
Milwaukee will start Junior Guerra in this game. My numbers project Guerra to get hit hard by the Padres tonight. Guerra is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a weak 4.33 ERA in this game. In two starts this season, Guerra has given up 4 earned runs in each outing while earning a terrible 6.00 ERA in those games. He has allowed 11 hits in just 12 innings of work. Last season, Guerra had an ugly 6.35 ERA. Milwaukee's pitching has been terrible all season, leading to a 23-11 Over mark in all games. The Brewers are 12-5 Over at home where they are allowing 5.5 runs per game and a .296 opponent's batting average, where the Milwaukee bullpen owns a terrible 5.25 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Look for a high-scoring game between the Padres and Brewers on Friday night.
Play OVER (Friedrich/Guerra) as a 3% play.
