SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Toronto (38-40, 36-42 ATS) at Atlanta (49-29, 45-33 ATS)
The Raptors will try to avoid a fourth straight loss and stay in the race for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference when they travel to Philips Arena for a matchup with the Hawks.
Two of Toronto’s three straight losses (0-3 ATS) have come at home, including Wednesday’s 115-104 setback to the Celtics, failing as a six-point underdog. The Raptors, who are tied with Chicago for the No. 8 and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, are just 1-5 (2-4 ATS) in their last six north of the border. Atlanta, tied with the Celtics in the third spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs pecking order, has dropped two straight games and three of its last four (SU and ATS). Most recently the Hawks fell in Detroit 90-88 as 5 ½-point favorites on Wednesday, just onenight after losing 109-100 in Charlotte as 4 ½-point underdogs. Atlanta is 32-7 at Philips Arena this season and has cashed in 24 of the 39 contests. The Hawks have taken four of the last five meetings in this series (SU and ATS), including two of three this season (3-0 ATS). These two squared off in Toronto on March 17 with the Raptors edging the Hawks 106-105 but coming up short as a three-point favorite. Atlanta has cashed in seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings and the chalk has cashed in 10 of the last 13. Toronto comes into this one having cashed in five of its last six roadies, but it is on ATS skids of 20-43 after a non-cover, 8-17 against Southeast Division teams and 19-40-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. They Hawks are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games and 2-6 in their last eight games after a loss, however they have cashed in foru of five at home and 14 of 18 against Atlantic Division squads. The Raptors are riding “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 8-1 against Southeast Division teams, 24-9 against Eastern Conference squads and 37-15 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Atlanta has stayed below the posted number in four of five against Eastern Conference teams, but gone “over” the number in 16 of 21 against teams with losing records, nine of 12 after a non-cover and eight of 11 against Atlantic Division teams. In this series, the “over” has cashed in 22 of the last 30 meetings, including five of six in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Phoenix (51-27, 45-32-1 ATS) at Oklahoma City (48-30, 46-32 ATS)
Two teams headed for the Western Conference playoffs square off inside the Ford Center when the surging Suns visit the Thunder. Phoenix has won 11 of its last 12 games (8-3-1 ATS), including Wednesday’s 112-101 home win over the Spurs, cashing as a six-point chalk. Amare Stoudemire poured in 29 points and grabbed eight boards as the Suns battle to get the No. 2 seed in the playoff race. The Suns have won six of seven road games (4-3 ATS), including four of five on a recent five-game Eastern Conference road swing. Oklahoma City has lost two in a row, losing a thrilling 140-139 overtime game in Utah on Tuesday, cashing as a 6 ½-point underdog, and then falling 98-94 at home on Wednesday to the Nuggets as a 2 ½-opint favorite. After scoring 45 points in Utah, Kevin Durant followed it up with 33 points and 11 rebounds against Denver. The Thunder are in a three-way battle for the sixth spot in the Western Conference playoffs with the Spurs and Portland.
The Suns have won nine of their last 10 meetings (3-6-1 ATS) with the Thunder, but the two have split their two meetings this season with the road team winning both meetings. Phoenix went to Oklahoma City on Feb. 23 and took a 104-102 win as a 6 ½-point ‘dog, two months after the Thunder went to Arizona and scored a 117-113 win as 8 ½-point underdogs. In Oklahoma, the Thunder have cashed in five of seven against Phoenix as the underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes. Phoenix is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 22-8-1 overall, 11-4 on the road, 16-4-1 on Fridays, 18-7-1 after a day off, 11-5-1 against teams with winning records and 12-5-1 after a straight-up win. Oklahoma City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a home favorite, but it is on ATS surges of 13-3 on Fridays, 40-16 after a non-cover, 45-20 after a straight-up loss and 4-1 after a day off. The Suns have gone “over” the total in three of five overall and six of nine on the road, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2-1 as ‘dogs, 4-1-1 after a spread-cover and 8-2 on Fridays. The Thunder are on “over” runs of 5-1 overall, 7-3-1 as a favorite and 3-0-1 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” has cashed in 13 of the last 18 in Oklahoma City, but the “over” has been the play in four of the last five overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
Dallas (51-27, 33-44-1 ATS) at Portland (48-30, 42-34-2 ATS)
The Trail Blazers will try to make it four in a row over the Mavericks this season when the two square off inside the Rose Garden in Portland. Dallas, fighting for the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, has dropped two of three (SU and ATS), but most recently scored a 110-84 blowout win over Memphis on Wednesday, easily cashing as a 9½-point favorite. The win snapped a two-game home losing streak for the Mavericks, who got a combined 45 points and 15 rebounds from forwards Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki. Portland has won two straight (1-1 ATS) and six of seven (SU and ATS) as it has pulled into a three-way tie for sixth in the Western Conference playoffs with the Thunder and Spurs. Wednesday, the Blazers notched a 93-85 road win against the Clippers, but came up short as a nine-point favorite, as LaMarcus Aldridge led the way with 27 points and 12 rebounds. The Blazers are a perfect 3-0 (SU and ATS) against the Mavericks this season, including two wins in Texas. On March 25, Portland scored a 101-89 home win over Dallas, easily cashing as a 3 ½-point chalk. The underdog has been the play in this series eight of the last 11 meetings.
Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road ‘dog, but it is on negative ATS trends of 2-10 against Northwest Division teams, 5-16-1 after a spread-cover and 8-18-1 after a day off. Portland is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against teams with winning road records, but it is on ATS streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 6-0 against Southwest Division teams, 3-0-1 after a day off, 15-5 on Fridays and 21-6 as a chalk of up to 4 ½ points. The Mavs have topped the total in seven of nine on Fridays and nine of 13 after a day off, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 5-2 as ‘dogs. The Trail Blazers have gone “over” the number in eight of 11 on Fridays and seven of nine against Southwest Division teams, but they are on “under” runs of 10-3 at home, 6-2 as home favorites and 6-0 at home against teams with winning road records. In this series, the “under” has cashed in 15 of the last 21 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (2-1) at Milwaukee (2-1)
Two N.L. Central rivals that took two out of three games in their season-opening series get together when the Cardinals send Kyle Lohse (6-10, 4.74 ERA in 2009) to the Miller Park hill against Brewers right-hander Dave Bush (5-9, 6.38). St Louis won its first two games of the season at Cincinnati, racking up 17 total runs while allowing nine, but the Cards were shut down Thursday in a 2-1 loss, with the lone run coming on a Matt Holliday homer in the seventh inning. Despite the quick start, the Redbirds are on a 3-10 overall slide dating to last season. On the positive end of the spectrum, they’re also on surges of 23-6 in series openers and 12-5 in roadies against right-handers. Milwaukee opened the season at home against Colorado, losing the first game Monday, then coming back with a pair of victories, including a 7-5 win Wednesday to wrap up the series and head into a day off. Dating to last season, the Brewers have won six of their last seven overall, four in a row in the N.L. Central and four in a row on Friday, but they are 3-10 in their last 13 games after a day off. These division rivals split their 18 meetings in 2009, with Milwaukee earning a three-game road sweep to close the regular season. In fact, the road team has won the last seven clashes, and the Cards are on a 4-0 run at Miller Park. Lohse posted just two wins in his last 15 outings last year, to go with seven losses, and he was a meager 1-6 with an inflated 6.10 ERA in 11 road outings (10 starts). St. Louis is 9-3 in its last dozen series openers with Lohse starting, but the trends are all downhill from there when the righty takes the ball, including 1-4 overall, 2-14 on the highway, 0-9 against winning teams and 2-7 in the division. Lohse is 3-5 with a 5.17 ERA in 14 career appearances (12 starts) against Milwaukee, including 2-1 with a bloated 7.07 ERA in six appearances (five starts) at Miller Park. Last year, he was 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA in three outings (two starts) against the Brewers. Bush limped to the finish line last season, going 2-9 with a beefy 8.31 ERA in his last 13 starts, and he was 1-5 with a 5.98 ERA in 11 total starts at Miller Park. The Brewers are 19-7 in his last 26 home starts against winning teams, but they are also on dives behind Bush of 2-6 overall, 0-5 at home, 1-4 in the N.L. Central and 1-5 against winning teams. Bush is 2-6 with a 6.65 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis, going 0-2 with a hefty 8.71 ERA in his two outings last year as he allowed 10 runs (all earned) on 18 hits in 10 1/3 innings. St. Louis is on “over” streaks of 6-3-1 overall, 4-0 in series openers, 6-2-1 behind Lohse in division play and 8-3 with Lohse facing a winning team, though the under has hit in eight of its last 11 against winning teams and five of six with Lohse throwing a series opener. Milwaukee is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 15-4-3 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 7-1-1 after a day off, 3-0-1 with Bush starting, 20-7-3 behind Bush in division play and 19-7-2 with the righty starting at home. Conversely, the total has stayed low in seven straight Miller Park meetings between these clubs.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (2-1) at Tampa Bay (2-1)
Javier Vazquez (15-10, 2.87 ERA), who had a solid season for Atlanta last year, rejoins the Yankees for the first time since 2004 when he opposes Rays youngster David Price (10-7, 4.42) and the division rival Rays at Tropicana Field. New York opened the season with a 9-7 loss to archrival Boston on Sunday, then bounced back with a pair of victories at Fenway, including Wednesday’s 3-1, 10-inning win, with newly acquired Curtis Granderson hitting a solo shot for the game-winning run. The defending world champions are on tears of 54-22 overall, 39-16 against lefty starters, 42-16 in the A.L. East and 40-16 against winning teams. Tampa Bay took two out of three at home in its season-opening series against Baltimore, notching a pair of 4-3 victories in the first two games before falling 5-4 last night after allowing four runs in the sixth inning. The Rays remain on upswings of 8-3 overall, 11-3 in the division, 44-20 at home, 35-16 on Friday and 80-30 against righty starters. New York went 11-7 against Tampa last year, including 5-4 on the road, ending the regular season with a 10-2 rout at Tropicana Field. The Yankees are 9-3 in the last dozen meetings overall.
Vazquez was 5-1 in his last seven starts of ’09, throwing a pair of complete games while posting a stifling 1.96 ERA. The righty was a superb 10-2 with a 2.80 ERA in 16 road starts. Vazquez is a more modest 5-4 with a 4.36 ERA in 12 career starts against Tampa Bay (3-2, 4.40 at Tropicana), and he did not face the Rays in 2009. The Rays won in Price’s last four starts of ’09, including a 13-4 shellacking of the Yankees to open the final regular-season series of the year, with the southpaw yielding just one run on two hits and a walk in seven innings. Tampa is on rolls behind Price of 4-0 in series openers, 9-2 inside the A.L. East and 7-2 at home. Price is coming off a rookie season in which the first of his 23 starts wasn’t until May 25. He went 8-3 with a 2.93 ERA in 12 starts at Tropicana last year – as opposed to 2-4 with a 6.24 ERA on the road – and he was 1-0 with a stout 1.93 ERA in three starts against the Yanks. He made one relief appearance against New York in 2008, giving him a 1-0 record and 2.25 ERA in four career appearances against the Pinstripes. New York is on a boatload of “over” surges, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 after a day off, 5-0 against southpaws, 5-0 against winning teams and 7-1-1 on the highway. Also, Vazquez’s starts have led to “over” rolls of 9-1-1 against winning teams, 8-1 in series openers and 9-4-1 overall. On the flip side, Tampa is on “under” stretches of 6-2 overall (all at home and all in division play) and 3-1-1 behind Price at home. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last 12 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES