Service Plays Friday 4/4/14

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Why we like the Astros on Friday at +120…the Astros? Who are they? Why are we betting on them to the beat Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton on Friday? Well for one, this is your classic case of one team being undervalued and another team being overvalued. The Astros will continue to be undervalued throughout the season and it is our job to find the right spots to bet them. We believe that Friday will be a perfect situation to back them at a valuable +120. Going into Thursday’s action, the Astros are 2-0 against the Yankees while facing Sabathia & Kuroda. In those two games, the Astros were able to win as dogs of +130 & +150. On the mound for the ‘Stros will be Lucas Harrell who makes his 2014 debut. In Harrell’s 2013 debut, he faced the Rangers AT home where he allowed just 1 run through 6 innings on 2 BBs & 4 Ks. Harrell has faced the Angels just three times in his career, all coming in 2013. In those three starts, Harrell allowed a combined 3 runs through 17 innings on 14 hits & 13 Ks. The Angels come into Fridays action starting the season off 0-3 against the Mariners were they were favorites of -115, -165 & -145. Garrett Richards will be on the mound who has shown little success in his two career starts against the Astros, both coming in 2013 & both AT Angel Stadium of Anaheim. In those two starts, Richards allowed a combined 9 runs through 12 innings on 15 hits, 2 HRs & 8 Ks. The Astros have a combined 40 ABs off of Richards where they have a .350 average. With the bullpens more than likely playing a large factor in this series, we cannot overlook them in this opening game. The Angels come in with a 10.80 era through 10 innings where they have allowed a whopping 5 HRs on 7 BBs & 14 Ks. The Astros pen has not had to labor much yet only allowing 3 runs through 6 innings on 4 BBs, 7 Ks & 0 HRs. With the Astros coming into Fridays game with a bit of confidence, we will back them at +120. Play on the Astros at +120.
 

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Jeffrey James


#523 Phoenix Suns +4.5 (10:05 edt)


You want domination of a series??? Phoenix has covered 9 of the last 10 including the last 7 in a row in this series. Not only that the Suns are 26-10 ATS their last 36 road games. Look for Phoenix to come with a big effort since they are off of 2 consecutive SU and ATS losses. Take the points with the Suns as the play of the day for Friday.
 

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StatFox Super Situations




PHILADELPHIA at CHICAGO CUBS
Play Against - Any team (CHICAGO CUBS) poor offensive team from last season - scored <=4.3 runs/game on the season (NL), after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games 36-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 70.6% | 21.9 units )




StatFox Situational Power Trends




ST LOUIS at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 52-31 (+27.2 Units) against the money line in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The average score was: PITTSBURGH (3.9) , OPPONENT (3.4)


StatFox Super Situations




DETROIT at BROOKLYN
Play Under - Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season 109-58 over the last 5 seasons. ( 65.3% | 45.2 units ) 31-22 this year. ( 58.5% | 6.8 units )




DETROIT at BROOKLYN
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (DETROIT) poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=46% on the season, averaging 53 or more rebounds/game on the season 206-97 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.0% | 71.4 units ) 103-66 this year. ( 60.9% | 21.7 units )




WASHINGTON at NEW YORK
Play Against - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points vs. the first half line (WASHINGTON) in a game involving two poor defensive teams (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more 46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units ) 5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 2.8 units )
 

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Totals 4 You "Total Domination" for Friday, April 4th

2014 NBA Western Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Denver/Memphis under 200 1/2

NBA Best Bets
Orlando/Charlotte over 194
Philadelphia/Boston under 207
Detroit/Brooklyn over 206
Washington/New York under 194
Milwaukee/Chicago under 186
Phoenix/Portland over 213

MLB Inter-League Baseball Daytime Dominator!!!!!
Milwaukee/Boston over 8 1/2

MLB Best Bets
San Francisco/Los Angeles over 7 1/2
Arizona/Colorado over 10
San Diego/Miami over 7
Seattle/Oakland under 7 1/2

 
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GC: NBA Play

Huge Friday card has 5* 100% MLB Total of the week from a system that averages over 12 runs and the 5* NBA 100% Double system total of the week. There is also a 100% road warrior system in Bases and a 91% NBA Dominator system side. MLB has started hot and NBA is solid all year. NBA Totals Play below.

On Friday the three star NBA Totals play is on the over in the Detroit at Brooklyn game. Rotation numbers 513/514 at 7:35 eastern. This game fits a nifty totals system that has cashed 16 of 21 times playing the over for rested home favorites that scored 90 or less as a road dog and lost to the spread by 14+ points, and had no prior rest before that loss and are now playing a team that scored 90 or more as a road dog. Brooklyn has flown over in 12 of 14 on Fridays and 5 of the last 7 after scoring 85 or less. The Pistons have been an over team all season and have posted overs in 19 of 27 vs winning teams, and 18 of their last 23 April games. Look of this one to go over the total tonight. Huge T.G.I.F Card is up with the MLB and NBA Totals of the week. The MLB has a huge 100% Totals system that averages 12.7 runs and the NBA Total of the week has 100% and 27-4 totals systems. There is also a never lost MLB Road warrior system that dates to 2004 in Bases, and a 91% NBA Dominator side. Thursday top play on OKC Cashes. Jump on now as we start the weekend big in bases and Baskets. For NBA Bonus Play take the Over in the Detroit At Brooklyn game. GC
 
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Game of the Day: Thunder at Rockets

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets

The Oklahoma City Thunder made a statement and kept themselves in the race for the top spot in the Western Conference by knocking off the San Antonio Spurs on Thursday. The Thunder will attempt to carry that momentum into the second night of a back-to-back when they visit the Houston Rockets on Friday. Oklahoma City has been keeping Russell Westbrook (knee) out of back-to-backs and does not expect to play him on Friday.

The Thunder will still have Kevin Durant, who is aiming to tie Michael Jordan with his 40th straight outing of 25 or more points. Jordan is the only person in the last 50 years with at least that many consecutive 25-point outings, accomplishing the feat in the 1986-87 season. The Rockets, who have dropped three straight, have a few players of their own that are capable of putting up gaudy point totals and might perform better in this meeting with Westbrook and frequent antagonizer Patrick Beverley (knee) both due to watch from the bench.

LINE HISTORY: Suggested odds out of Vegas have the Rockets as 1-point faves with a total of 212.

INJURY REPORT: Thunder: N/A. Rockets: C Dwight Howard (Doubtful, ankle), G Patrick Beverley (Mid April, knee)

WHY BET THE THUNDER (55-19 SU, 40-32-2 ATS, 37-37 O/U): Oklahoma City came alive in the second half against San Antonio on Thursday. Durant scored 16 of his 28 after the break in the 106-94 win but did have one streak come to an end when he went 0-for-4 from 3-point range — the first time since March 2 he failed to connect from beyond the arc. The Thunder swept a three-game homestand but will play the next four and six of the final eight on the road as they attempt to close the gap on San Antonio, which leads the West by three games.

WHY BET THE ROCKETS (49-25 SU, 37-35-2 ATS, 38-34-3 O/U): Beverley is dealing with a torn meniscus — a similar injury to the one Westbrook suffered after being hit by Beverley in the playoffs last spring. The two were not shy about playing a physical game the last time the teams met, a 106-98 Thunder victory on March 11. Houston is also dealing with a nagging ankle injury to Dwight Howard as they try to hold off the Portland Trail Blazers for the No. 4 spot in the West. “All good teams have had their struggles,” James Harden told reporters after a 107-103 loss in Toronto on Wednesday. “Ours is coming late in the season and we’ve got to figure it out. All the top teams have been through a struggle like this.”

TRENDS:

* Thunder are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Rockets last five Friday games.
* Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
 
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/4/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_________________________________________



***** Friday, 4/4/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
______________________________________________

Betting Notes - Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Charlotte won three of its last four games.
-- Toronto won four of its last five games.
-- Cleveland won five of its last six games.
-- Brooklyn won three of its last four games.
-- Miami won last four games, covered last five.
-- Knicks won four of last five games.
-- Washington won three of its last four.
-- Bulls won five of their last six games.
-- Thunder won seven of their last eight games.
-- Portland won/covered its last four games.
-- Sacramento is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six road games.

•Cold Teams
-- Nuggets lost four of their last five games.
-- Memphis lost three of their last four games.
-- Magic lost eight of their last ten games.
-- Pacers lost five of their last seven games.
-- Hawks lost seven of their last eight games.
-- 76ers lost 28 of last 29 games (6-3 vs. spread last nine).
-- Celtics lost last six games (1-4-1 vs. spread).
-- Pistons lost four of their last five games.
-- Minnesota lost last three road games, by 23-17-15 points.
-- Bucks lost 14 of last 16 games (5-3 vs. spread last eight).
-- Utah lost nine of its last ten games.
-- Pelicans lost last three games, by 16-5-30 points.
-- Rockets lost last three games, by 11-9-4 points.
-- Suns lost last two games, after winning previous six.
-- Warriors covered twice in last seven games as a favorite.
-- Dallas is 0-4 after its last four wins, with three of four losses in OT.
-- Lakers lost four of their last five games.

•Totals
-- Six of last eight Denver-Memphis games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Orlando games stayed under total.
-- Nine of last ten Indiana games stayed under total.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games stayed under total.
-- Five of last seven Boston games went over total.
-- Last three Detroit games went over the total.
-- Seven of last nine Minnesota games went over.
-- Five of last six Wizard games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Milwaukee games stayed under.
-- Eight of last ten Pelican games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten Rocket games went over total.
-- Four of last five Phoenix games stayed under total.
-- Four of last five King-Warrior games stayed under.
-- Seven of last eight Dallas games went over total.

•Series Records
-- Nuggets lost five of last six visits to Memphis.
-- Magic won 11 of last 13 visits to Charlotte.
-- Pacers won three of last four games with Indiana.
-- Hawks won four of last five games with Cleveland.
-- 76ers lost three of last four games with Boston.
-- Pistons are 3-0 vs. Brooklyn this year, winning by 12-4-16 points.
-- Miami won last seven games with Minnesota (6-1 vs. spread).
-- Wizards won three of last five games with Knicks.
-- Bulls won 12 of last 15 games with Milwaukee.
-- Home side won nine of last ten New Orleans-Utah games.
-- Thunder won seven of last nine games with Houston.
-- Suns won six of last nine games with Portland.
-- Kings are 0-3 vs. Golden State this year, losing by 11-2-9 points.
-- Lakers are 0-2 vs. Dallas this season, losing by 19-23 points.

•Situational Trends of The Day
-- INDIANA is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season.
The average score was INDIANA 86.5, OPPONENT 93.3.

-- DETROIT is 16-3 OVER (+12.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 101.9, OPPONENT 104.5.

-- NEW YORK is 32-9 (+22.1 Units) against the 1rst half line revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 51.9, OPPONENT 47.8.

-- NEW ORLEANS is 20-5 UNDER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 46.2, OPPONENT 49.0.

-- KEVIN MCHALE is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread as the coach of HOUSTON.
The average score was MCHALE 110.0 OPPONENT 95.0.

•Matchup Trends of The Day
-- ATLANTA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 95.5, OPPONENT 101.2.

-- ORLANDO is 16-4 UNDER (+11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was ORLANDO 92.1, OPPONENT 100.5.

-- PHOENIX is 26-10 (+15 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season.
The average score was PHOENIX 54.4, OPPONENT 51.7.

-- INDIANA is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was INDIANA 40.1, OPPONENT 47.1.

-- STEVE CLIFFORD is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of CHARLOTTE.
The average score was CLIFFORD 105.4, OPPONENT 94.2.

•Situation Analysis of The Day
-- Play Against - Any team versus the money line (PORTLAND) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points against opponent off an upset loss to a division rival as a favorite, in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games.
(40-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +35.4 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team underdog with a money line of: +113.6
The average score in these games was: Team 106, Opponent 98.1 (Average point differential = +7.9)

The situation's record this season is: (5-2, +4.8 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-5, +16.4 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (101-58, +22.9 units).

-- Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (NEW ORLEANS) - good shooting team (45.5-47.5%) against an poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%) after 42+ games, good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO's) after 42+ games.
(32-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.9%, +27.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (33-4 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average score in these games was: Team 104.7, Opponent 95.7 (Average point differential = +9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (69.4% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (9-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-2).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (60-35).

-- Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (OKLAHOMA CITY) – a very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team.
(47-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.0%, +31.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average total posted in these games was: 206.6
The average score in these games was: Team 102, Opponent 97.5 (Total points scored = 199.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 36 (59% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (9-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (91-60).

-- Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 5.5 points versus the first half line (DALLAS) - a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG), after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
(29-5 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.3%, +23.5 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.6, Opponent 45.1 (Average first half point differential = +9.5)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-4).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (66-36).

-- Play Under - All teams where the first half total is between 90.5 and 95.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - poor shooting team (41.5-43.5%) against an good defensive team (41.5-43.5%), revenging a loss versus opponent, tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days.
(80-30 since 1996.) (72.7%, +47.6 units. Rating = 4*)

The average first half total posted in these games was: 93.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 43.7, Opponent 46.5 (Total first half points scored = 90.2)

The situation's record this season is: (4-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-8).
___________________________________________
 
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Today's NBA Picks

Cleveland at Atlanta

The Cavaliers head to Atlanta following a 119-98 win over Orlando and come in with a 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.
FRIDAY, APRIL 4
Time Posted: 10:30 a.m. EST
Game 501-502: Indiana at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.621; Toronto 117.935
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 182 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+1 1/2); Under
Game 503-504: Orlando at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 111.012; Charlotte 125.363
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 13 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 10; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-10); Over
Game 505-506: Denver at Memphis (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 117.527; Memphis 121.076
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 9; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9); Under
Game 507-508: Minnesota at Miami (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 117.953; Miami 128.772
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 11; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 9 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-9 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 120.669; Atlanta 114.531
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Under
Game 511-512: Philadelphia at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 104.812; Boston 117.233
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 12 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 208
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-9 1/2); Over
Game 513-514: Detroit at Brooklyn (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.020; Brooklyn 120.829
Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 10; 205
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10); Over
Game 515-516: Washington at New York (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 115.789; New York 123.276
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Under
Game 517-518: Milwaukee at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 111.332; Chicago 119.040
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 7 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 11 1/2; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+11 1/2); Under
Game 519-520: New Orleans at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 113.694; Utah 111.897
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 3; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over
Game 521-522: Oklahoma City at Houston (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 125.787; Houston 125.031
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 1; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 2 1/2; 212
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+2 1/2); Under
Game 523-524: Phoenix at Portland (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 122.079; Portland 118.454
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 4 1/2; 213
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4 1/2); Over
Game 525-526: Sacramento at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 115.875; Golden State 123.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 10; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+10); Under
Game 527-528: Dallas at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.562; LA Lakers 111.830
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 10 1/2; 228
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 8; 223
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-8); Over
 
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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays - UNDER 8 RUNS (+104)
Listed Pitchers: Tanaka vs McGowan
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.08 units)

I will make the trip 2 hours north to Toronto to watch the Blue Jays home opener against the Yankees and their prize free agent pick up in starting pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. To give you an example of how good Takana can be, he was 24-0 last year in his Japan league with a 1.27 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. The righty is 25 years old and cashed in with a huge contract for himself. So far this spring he looks like exactly what the Yankees thought they were getting as he pitched 21 innings allowing just 5 runs with 26 strikeouts and just 3 walks. Batters hit just .190 against him and he had a 0.86 WHIP. Dustin McGowan is another pitcher for Toronto that most people outside of Toronto probably forgot about. McGowan made 27 starts in 2007 with the Blue Jays, but has since dealt with injuries. Last year he came back as a reliever for Toronto and held a 2.45 ERA over 25 appearances as he held opponents to a low .190 batting average. His official Spring Training stats have him at just 7 innings giving up 3 runs with 7 strikeouts, but he has also had a lot of success in Minor League games the Jays had him starting in to get stretched out. He should be good for somewhere around 85 pitches in the home opener if he is pitching well. The Blue Jays didn't use any of their top relievers Thursday night, so all should be available for the late innings as needed. Neither the Blue Jays or Yankees have done much at the plate to date, with the Jays hitting .205 as a team and the Yankees .200. This game has pitching duel written all over it, with neither team too familiar with the others starter. I'm on the UNDER.
 

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