VegasButcher (NBA)
Playoffs - 4 – 5 @ 0% for -1.5 Units
Future: Dallas Mavericks +1.5 games for the Series
Friday Night
Dallas Mavericks PK
The Mavs are 0-2 but they’re at home for this one and I believe this is a great spot for them to grab a win in this series. This team had an average margin of -8 in game 1 but in game two that average margin was only -3.7 as the game was much closer. Houston went on a huge 19-4 run in the 4th quarter to seal the game away as Dallas ran out of steam, but the Mavs showed that they CAN compete with the Rockets. Remember, Houston needed a career game out of Josh Smith and an unusual FT-shooting day from Dwight Howard just to win this game. In addition, Dirk Nowitzki was very inefficient going 3 for 14 from the field, many of them missed open looks. I think these things should even themselves out, especially once the series shifts to Dallas. The biggest factor in Mavs’ favor of course is the fact that “Cancer” Rondo won’t be available for the rest of the playoffs. After Rondo tried to “sabotage” game 2 (I have no other ways of describing it really), he finally got the boot and will miss the rest of the post-season with a “back issue”. He will not be allowed near the team. Basically Rondo is suspended with pay. Good thing for the Mavs is that Devin Harris is playing tonight. I thought he’d suit up for game 2 but I guess he needed a little more time. Him and Barea should be able to dominate the matchup against Terry/Prigioni. Expect the Mavs to shoot better than 37% in this one. Defensively, Mavs need to clean things up. Chandler needs to step up a bit even though he’s often the only ‘plus’ defender for the Mavs on the floor. Aminu could also provide another spark with his D and hustle like he did in game 2. Overall, Mavs can tighten things up a bit on that side of the court. Regardless, I think Dallas still has some life left in them and it starts with today’s game.
Los Angeles Clippers +4.5
Zigging and Zagging all the way to game 3 now in this series. People often quote ‘zig zag’ in their NBA playoff handicapping, but it usually works best when you have two fairly even teams. That’s the case in this series. Clippers and Spurs are the 2nd and 3rd best ranked teams in the NBA this season. So after losing game 2 in OT, Clippers head out to San Antonio. I think they have an advantage in this game. First, Tony Parker’s injury has to be discussed. You have to remember that he flat out left the floor in game 2 of a tightly contested game to never even attempt to return. That automatically tells me that his issue is a little more serious than everyone is trying to let on. And even if he’s good enough to suit up today, his effectiveness will be minimized. Remember, as efficient as the Spurs are offensively, they still need a player who can facilitate the offense. Those two players are Parker and Ginobili. One is injured and the other one is old, turnover-prone a bit, and just can’t play major minutes at this point of his career. This should be an issue for the Spurs tonight. Another factor in LA’s favor is that Tim Duncan is coming off a 44-minute game, which is a ton for him. He carried the Spurs in game 2 jacking up 23 shots and grabbing 11 boards. But all this usage definitely had an effect on him. By the end of the game and in OT Duncan looked really fatigued. He was catching entry passes very close to the 3PT line, clearly unable to fight physically to get better positioning closer to the basket. Don’t get me wrong he still made a huge basket in OT, the off-balanced running shot across the lane as he was falling down, but that was pure luck it went in. In any case, my point is that I doubt that Duncan will carry the Spurs offense tonight. Someone else will have to step up but who? Leonard is the obvious choice but he’s already doing a ton, and on both sides of the court to boot. Splitter seems hurt, Diaw is ‘off’ right now (missed a couple of easy bunnies last game and is way too slow footed on D), Mills is an excellent spark-plug but he can’t run the offense consistently, Belinelli is too big of a liability on the defensive end and I doubt that shooting fall-away jumpers over athletic 7-footers like he did in game 2 is his game. Danny Green and Tony Parker have the ability to contribute of course but Parker is hurt and Green can’t create on his own. I guess the only person left is Ginobili. He’s going to have to play a great game tonight in order for the Spurs to win, but I’m not sure he has a ‘great’ performance in him. Here’s how he fared in his last few games from the field: 3-7, 1-3, 1-7, 3-10, 2-6. He’s 10 for 33 (30%) in his last 5 games including 5 for 16 in the two game against the Spurs. He’s also committing TO’s at an increased rate, 13.7% of the possessions, his highest mark since his rookie year. Unless Parker rediscovers his form (doubtful – he was 0-6 for 1 point in game 2 after all, prior to leaving) the responsibility to create offensively will fall on Ginobili. And it’ll be interesting to see how he responds. After the way the Spurs persevered in game 2, I think this one is going to be a major ‘let down’ game for this team.
As far as Clippers are concerned, they really don’t need to make too many adjustments. Sure DeAndre Jordan could improve his FT-shooting, but even though he went 6-17 on those, remember all those extra possessions Clippers gained via offensive rebounding? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team gain more offensive boards off missed FT’s than the Clips in game 2. Jordan’s shot is perfect for those as he zips his FT-attempts which carom off the rim very hard. LA has a lot more athleticism than the Spurs and thus they’re able to come up with a good number of those. But overall, improved FT-shooting wouldn’t hurt. Blake of course needs to be less careless with the ball (5 TO’s in game 2) especially in crunch time. Barnes could make more than 10% of his shots. But most importantly I think Chris Paul needs to just take the game over more. I know Spurs put Green and Leonard on Paul late, but for the first 3 quarters San Antonio used Parker on him, and mostly changed things up when Parker left the game. I think Paul needs to take this game over right away, instead of waiting to do it in the 4th quarter. If he does, this one could be out of reach by then. Regardless, I think there’s way too many points being given to LA in this one. I think they’re a ‘better’ team tonight (Parker – injured, Duncan – fatigued) and I think they’re a ‘better’ team even when all players are fully healthy. This is my favorite play of the post-season so far.
