David Chan comp play
Take the Celtics +4.
Tuesday’s Game 2 line movement was really strange. The Celtics opened -2 and at -1.5 my clients and I piled on with an oversized “Game of the Week” selection. The game mostly closed Celtics -1.
Forget that the Celts won by 29. The implication in the line was that, on a neutral floor, Miami would be a couple points better than Boston. That was confusing to say the least. OK, everyone knew Kevin Garnett was sitting out. But Boston had not only taken Game 1, Boston won all three regular season meetings between the two clubs. So the Heat, coming in, were 0-4 SU and somehow the “better team”.
Here we are again. Giving up 4 points implies that the market thinks Miami is still fractionally better than the Celtics—even as Kevin Garnett returns. There is no basis for this. Might Miami win this game? Of course. Is it reasonable to believe they’ll win it? Perhaps. The team is “desperate” (or some such word). But is it rational to take the Heat here laying four points given that now, in five tries, they haven’t beaten the Celtics all year? Absolutely not. I don’t claim that Miami’s a bad team, but how can we suddenly ask them to do something they’ve failed at five times this year? We can’t.
Take the Celtics +4.
Tuesday’s Game 2 line movement was really strange. The Celtics opened -2 and at -1.5 my clients and I piled on with an oversized “Game of the Week” selection. The game mostly closed Celtics -1.
Forget that the Celts won by 29. The implication in the line was that, on a neutral floor, Miami would be a couple points better than Boston. That was confusing to say the least. OK, everyone knew Kevin Garnett was sitting out. But Boston had not only taken Game 1, Boston won all three regular season meetings between the two clubs. So the Heat, coming in, were 0-4 SU and somehow the “better team”.
Here we are again. Giving up 4 points implies that the market thinks Miami is still fractionally better than the Celtics—even as Kevin Garnett returns. There is no basis for this. Might Miami win this game? Of course. Is it reasonable to believe they’ll win it? Perhaps. The team is “desperate” (or some such word). But is it rational to take the Heat here laying four points given that now, in five tries, they haven’t beaten the Celtics all year? Absolutely not. I don’t claim that Miami’s a bad team, but how can we suddenly ask them to do something they’ve failed at five times this year? We can’t.
