dont forget the 3 losers he backed it up with.
mti--
Play: N.Y. Mets (ML +180)
Line Source: PEPPERMILL
Posted on: April 15, 2011 @ 8:42:32 AM EDT
The Braves’ Derek Lowe has pitched very well this season, but the Braves suffered 1-0 and 3-0 losses in those two starts. Atlanta is in a number of bad spots, so we’ll grab this price. The Braves are only 2-4 at home this season and they suffered a 6-5 loss to the Marlins last night. They get a Mets’ team that has dropped five straight. This might seem like an opportunity for the Braves, but they have failed to capitalize on similar opportunities in the past. Atlanta is 11-26 at night vs a team that has lost at least their last four games. The Braves were an average of minus 151 on the moneyline over these 37 games. They were shutout in each of their last two.
In addition, Atlanta is 1-8 in the first game of a series when they are off a one-run loss.
The Mets are 3-3 on the road this season and they are off a loss to the Rockies in which they managed only five hits. They have made some cash in this spot, going 6-0 on the road after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits – winning EVERY game by multiple runs and they were the dog in five of the six.
Finally, the Mets are a very nice 40-21 after a daytime loss in which they allowed 12+ hits.
D. J. Carrasco has a chance to look at lot better than he is here.
MTi’s FORECAST: NY Mets 4 ATLANTA 3
Matchup: Minnesota at Tampa Bay
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: Blackburn, Nick (R) vs. Davis, Wade (R)
Play: Tampa Bay (ML -120)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: April 15, 2011 @ 8:42:32 AM EDT
We’ll start this one off with starter-based trend number 3 from the 2011 MLB Handicapping Bible. It reads, “STR003: Nick Blackburn has produced a team record of 0-12 (-3.8 rpg) since July 2008 as an away dog when his team lost the last time he started. In 2010, this situation occurred four times and Blackburn did not make it more than four innings in any of them. In the four 2010 starts, Blackburn allowed an average of 6.25 runs in an average of 3.00 innings of work. His average WHIP was an ugly 3.49.” We have no problem laying this small price. Wade Davis is off a quality start in which the Rays lost 4-2 in Chicago. Tampa Bay has supported a hard-luck starter well. The Rays are a perfect 10-0 during the regular season as a favorite when they scored fewer than three runs for their starter in his last start and that starter allowed fewer than five runs. Tampa has produced six straight quality starts in this situation, the last of which was by none other than Wade Davis.
Nick Blackburn is in a similar situation. In his last outing, he had a quality start, but the Twins lost 1-0 to Oakland. However, that’s where the similarity ends. Minnesota is 0-10 as a road dog when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. With this strong dichotomy in pitching support. we’ll lay the small price.
MTi’s FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 5 Minnesota 3
Matchup: L.A. Angels at Chi. White Sox
Time: 8:10 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: Weaver, Jered (R) vs. Humber, Phil (R)
Play: Chi. White Sox (ML +115)
Line Source: CAESARS
Posted on: April 15, 2011 @ 8:42:32 AM EDT
The White Sox do not “lie down” when they are a dog simply because of the quality of their opponent’s starting pitcher. We’ll take this opportunity to play the White Sox as a home dog. Chicago is a very profitable 15-6 as a dog in the first game of the series. Also, Chicago is 8-3 as a dog when they are off a loss in which they held the lead and 7-2 as a dog in a series opener vs a team that has won at least their last two games.
The Angels are a respectable 7-5 this season, but they have faced the Royals, Rays, Blue Jays and Indians.
The Halos needed extra innings to beat the Tribe 4-3 on Wednesday. Ervin Santana pitch seven strong innings and the bullpen held Cleveland scoreless. This is not a good spot for LA. The Angels are a brutal 1-12 in a series opener when they are off a one-run win in which their starter lasted at least six innings. Their lone victory came as a 215 home favorite over Seattle with Jered Weaver – and they needed fourteen innings to get the win. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Angels and p:W and series game=1 and 20100702<=date and p:SIP>=6
Visiting the White Sox is a lot different from hosting the Mariners.
It’s also worth mentioning that the Angels are 0-6 on the road after a win in which they drew at least five free passes – losing by an average of a staggering 6.7 runs per game. We’ll back the Sox in this spot.
MTi’s FORECAST: CHICAGO 5 LA Angels 3
Matchup: Florida at Philadelphia
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Fri)
Listed pitchers must go: Vazquez, Javier (R) vs. Oswalt, Roy (R)
Play: Florida (ML +187)
Line Source: PINNACLE
Posted on: April 15, 2011 @ 8:42:32 AM EDT
The Marlins eked out a 6-5 win last night in Atlanta and here they are a big dog in Philadelphia. The Fish have been ferocious in this spot and we’ll jump on this price. Florida is a very impressive 21-5 as a night road dog after a one run win. Now that’s a nice return on investment. If they are playing against a divisional opponent, they are a perfect 10-0 as a night road dog off a one-run win. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Marlins and NGT and AD and p:margin=1 and o:division=division and 20070811<=date
Note that Florida has won these ten games by an average of 3.5 runs and nine of the ten were by multiple runs – and they were an average of plus 146 on the moneyline.
The Phillies have been terrible in series openers this season, going 1-3, with their only win in their season opener when they scored three in the bottom of the ninth to win 5-4 as a 270 home favorite over the Astros.
Yesterday, Cliff Lee pitched a complete-game, three-hit shutout, beating the Nats 4-0. Philadelphia is 0-5 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they drew one or fewer walks and a poor 8-10 as a favorite after a win in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings. We’ll grab this big price.
MTi’s FORECAST: Florida 4 PHILADELPHIA 3
