DR BOB
Friday NBA Opinions
Golden State (+13) over ATLANTA
Rotation #811 - 4:35 pm Pacific
The Warriors were blown out in Orlando, but they're still 7-1 ATS this season without the overrated Monta Ellis and my ratings favor Atlanta by just 11 1/2 points in this game. I'll lean with Golden State at +13 or more and I'd take the Warriors in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 or more. Oklahoma City (-4 1/2) over L.A. CLIPPERS
Rotation #811 - 4:35 pm Pacific
Oklahoma City is 30-12 ATS after a game in which they lost and failed to cover the spread, including 15-2 ATS this season. I'll lean with the Thunder at -5 or less based on that trend and I'd take Oklahoma City in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
Friday Night College Opinions
Wisconsin Milwaukee (+2) over Cleveland State
Rotation #858 - 5:20 pm Pacific
Wisconsin Milwaukee and Cleveland State have identical conference records and split their two regular season games (although Milwaukee out-scored the Vikings by 9 points and covered the spread in both games). The opening line of pick certainly seems fair if you don't factor in the absence of Cleveland State's top defensive player D'Aundray Brown being out with an eye injury. Brown averages 2.5 steals per game, was voted to the league's All-Defensive 1st team and also makes 52% of his shots and leads the team in rebounding. But, instead of Milwaukee being favored with Brown out they've become a 2 point underdog. Cleveland State was 1.2 points worse last season in the 13 games that Brown missed than they were with Brown in the lineup and he's probably worth more this season given his increase in steals per game (2.5 this year, 1.7 last year). Milwaukee should be favored by 1 or 1 1/2 points in this game with Brown out for the Vikings and I'll lean with the Panthers based on the line value.
Samford (+2 1/2) over The Citadel
Rotation #863 - 4 pm Pacific
Samford has been a major disappointment this season, as the Bulldogs were expected to challenge for their division title with the top 4 scorers returning from last year's middle of the pack team. Instead Samford managed to fall in the standings with a 5-13 conference record and 8-16 ATS mark. However, under achieving teams have a tendency to pick up their level of play in the conference tournaments and Samford actually applies to a 34-2 ATS subset of an 84-36 ATS conference tournament situation that plays on teams with bad spread records. My ratings favor The Citadel by 3 points, so the line is almost fair. I'll lean with Samford at +2 or more and I'd take Samford in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.