March Madness now Minus 39.8 Units in 4 days
NBA MINUS 107 Units YTD
4* #804 CHARLOTTE/L.A. LAKERS Under
Two of the best defenses in the NBA both check in off of
uncharacteristically bad performances, which means a much sharper
focus here. And with some other key factors in play we have excellent
value for this setting.
The Lakers were embarrassed defensively at Miami last night. They
allowed the Heat to score at last(least) 25 points in three of the four
quarters, and then 15 more in the O.T. period, allowing 52.5 percent
shooting. Five different Miami players scored at least 12 points, and
Kobe Bryant summed it up succinctly - ?We just couldn?t get a
stop.? For a team that is tied with Boston for #1 on our best set
of defensive ratings it means a lot of pride taking the court
tonight, and they are capable of locking down a struggling Charlotte
offense that has only scored more than 94 points one time in the last
10 games. But at the same time there are some weary Los Angeles legs
that can impact have an impact on their perimeter shooting, keyed by
Bryant going 45 minutes last night.
Meanwhile Charlotte is off of a similar embarrassment, allowing 104
points on 53.5 percent shooting at Boston on Wednesday, with the
Celtics knocking down 10-16 triples and dishing out 27 assists. That
is a slap in the face for a team that rates #5 on our best defensive
ratings, and there is no fear about them being able to respond ? in
their last two games on this court they held the Mavericks to 89
points and the Cavaliers to 93. In Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace
they are among the few teams that can match up to Bryant (he was held
to five points, on 2-12 shooting, on the west coast in the first
meeting this season), and given the current struggles of his own
offense, Larry Brown makes defense and tempo (Charlotte plays at the
27th slowest pace in the NBA) the cornerstones to his game plan.
Dave tried this Under when the teams last played in Los Angeles last month at a 5* level to take it in the ARSE in the final two possessions of the game when the lakers could have run the clock out but Farmar dunked the ball with 5 sec to go and charlotte hit a 3 at the buzzer to put the game over by 1 point !!
4* #821 OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. CLIPPERS
The Thunder might have played their worst game of the season at
Denver on Wednesday night, falling behind by as many as 41 points
before losing 119-90. But in terms of adjustments there is nothing to
see there. It was a tired team having to deal with the altitude in a
back-to-back setting, and their 8th game in 12 days, and the legs
simply weren?t there. But instead of a downgrade a game like that can
actually turn out to be a plus going forward. And here is why.
A night like that for a playoff contender can be a good thing because
it means a chance for the starters to get some rest. No one was on
the court for more than Kevin Durrant?s 26:36, so we can expect a
positive physical energy when they take the court tonight. And from
the standpoint of mental focus this one can be special. One of the
keys to Oklahoma City developing so quickly is the chemistry and
savvy that has developed on the court far beyond the years of
experience of the roster, largely because the right pieces are in the
right places. So look at how they have responded to defeats this
season ? how about a sparkling 17-4 ATS, games in which they have
beaten the pointspread by a collective 163.6 points. Now they bring a
rare high level of focus against the downtrodden Clippers. Instead of
it being a night to coast they bring the intensity to make up for
Wednesday?s ugly loss, and with only a game at Sacramento on deck
Sunday, and then two more days off, there is absolutely no
look-ahead. Having won their last 15 games against opponents with
losing records, they have the discipline on the court to exploit the
weaknesses that they will be up against.
The Clippers bring plenty of those weaknesses. This is just a
make-shift group of impending free agents that will spend more time
jockeying for individual statistics down the stretch than Team W?s,
and they are ripe to be whipped by exactly the kind of sound
fundamental play that the Thunder bring to the table.
4* #876 LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT over PEPPERDINE
It was not surprising to see an early market trickle lower this one
down to -9 across the board, as the failure to adjust to where
Loyola-Marymount is now, as opposed to what some misleading
full-season numbers will show. We took advantage to cash a 5* ticket
behind the Lions at San Diego last Thursday, and while it was a sin
of omission to not follow up at Saint Mary?s on Saturday, we can get
back in play here.
As we noted last week, injuries took a toll during the Loyola regular
season, with the top seven players in the rotation missing 37 games.
But they are 8-2 SU with a starting lineup of Ashley Hamilton, Drew
Viney, Kevin Young, Jarred DuBois and Vernon Teel, and note just how
good they were down the stretch ? in a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS surge to
close out the season, they beat the top three teams in the
conference, Gonzaga, Portland and Saint Mary?s, by nine points over
165 floor minutes. That helped them to finish with 13 more wins than
last season, the second best turnaround in the history of the
program, and once can only wonder how good it would have been had
they stayed healthy all season. Now they are a confident and hungry
side, with the missing time from the key cogs actually bringing them
in a little fresher than they ordinarily would be after 30 games
(Teel and Young are the only ones that played in all 30).
Pepperdine? There is not much to say here except that we find that
classic example of a team that knows that they have no chance in this
tournament, and fully expect to go home after one game. The Waves
finished on a dismal 0-10 run in which nine of the losses came by 16
points or more, and the other was by eight vs. Santa Clara, a team
that won only three W.C.C. games. They do not have a SR in the
rotation, and produced one of the rare conference stat lines in which
their opponents shot more than 10 full percentages points better than
they did (47.9 vs. 37.3). Four times in the last eight games they
could not even reach 50 points, including drubbings by 76-49 at Saint
Mary?s and 65-48 at San Diego last weekend.
Since Loyola got everyone healthy in the last four games, the Lions
have played the same schedule as Pepperdine ? Portland and Gonzaga at
home, Saint Mary?s and San Diego on the road. Loyola won those games
by a collective +12, while the Waves fell by -83. That is an average
of 23.8 per game, which paints a much more proper portrait of this
matchup than the current line does.