Service Plays Friday 3/5/10

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ROB VENO

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament Preview by: Rob Veno

Friday, March 5 @ Richmond, Va.
#8 Towson vs. #9 UNC Wilmington
#5 VCU vs. #12 Delaware
#7 Hofstra vs. #10 Georgia State
#6 Drexel vs. #11 James Madison

Saturday, March 6 @ Richmond, Va.
#1 Old Dominion vs. Towson/UNCW winner
#4 George Mason vs. VCU/Delaware winner
#2 Northeastern vs. Hofstra/Georgia State winner
#3 William & Mary vs. Drexel/JMU winner

As has been the case almost every year throughout this new millennium, the CAA Tournament promises once again to be very hotly contested. This year’s edition finds no less than seven teams capable of reaching and winning the title. That journey will be a bit more difficult for #5 seed VCU, #6 seed Drexel and #7 seed Hofstra because they must play in the first round and win four games in four days in order to secure a ticket to the NCAA Tournament. Seeds one through four draw a bye right into the second round where #2 Northeastern, #3 William & Mary and #4 George Mason all could benefit if their opponents are stretched in the first round. The Richmond Coliseum venue has become a staple of this conference championship and it unquestionably favors VCU whose campus is within walking distance. Of significance from a handicapping standpoint is the fact that 10 of William & Mary’s 18 conference games were decided by three points or less. Also, Northeastern, Drexel and George Mason enter as the coldest of the contenders going 0-6, 1-5 and 2-8 against the spread down the stretch. Hofstra and Towson are on “over” hot streaks as they come into the tournament on 13-1 and 9-2 runs respectively. The #9 seed has defeated the #8 seed in seven of the last eight years going 7-1 ATS in the process. Eight of the last nine CAA Tournaments have been won by the #1 seed.

Tournament Winner: Northeastern
The veteran laden Huskies have all the ingredients to get the job done. NU features the league’s best all around backcourt tandem (Matt Janning and Chaisson Allen), solid interior play, a stifling defense (60.2 ppg allowed), and an abundance of upper class leadership. With a bye and in the bottom of the bracket, they avoid #1 seed Old Dominion and defacto home team VCU. Their opening matchup will be against either #7 Hofstra or #10 Georgia State. The Huskies will have a revenge motive against Hofstra who they recently lost to as 11-point home favorites 73-62. The semifinals would bring them another opportunity to exact revenge as in their only meetings this season; they lost a 53-52 heartbreaker to William & Mary and were surprisingly upset at home as 10- point favorites 61-48 by Drexel. A finals appearance would probably see them oppose ODU or VCU and whichever one it is, they could be worn out from their semifinal contest the night before.

Darkhorse: William & Mary
All of the attention in this tournament is going to be centered on Old Dominion, Northeastern, and VCU. Lost in the shuffle will be an unassuming William & Mary group that is as good as any team in the CAA. Three-point shooting, tournament style half court execution on each end, free throw shooting and taking care of the basketball are all positives for this squad. They’ve defeated Maryland and Wake Forest on the road as well as Richmond at home. They’re a very seasoned unit which will come well prepared.

Team to Fade: George Mason
Patriots enter this tourney ice cold against the spread. They’re not the experienced bunch that we’ve seen here in recent years. Ball handling and shooting issues (free throws included) work against them in this setting as does the VCU revenge angle.

First Round Best Bet: Hofstra-Georgia State OVER
This is an immediate turn around situation for teams that went over the posted 131.5 by 30.5 points six days ago. Hofstra is on a huge “over” run while GSU enters with four “overs” in their last five games. There should be plenty of value here.
 
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NCAAB

NC Wilmington/Towson UNDER 142.5 -108
Elon/Davidson UNDER 137.5 -110
Delaware/Va Comm UNDER 140.5 -110
Eastern Illinois/Murray State UNDER 132.5 -110
James Madison/Drexel UNDER 128.5 -110
Marist/Canisius UNDER 126 -110
 
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DUNKEL NBA

Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
The Thunder look to bounce back from their 119-90 loss at Denver and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss by more than 10 points. Oklahoma City is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5)

Game 801-802: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 123.191; Washington 116.814
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 6 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4 1/2; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-4 1/2); Over

Game 803-804: LA Lakers at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.132; Charlotte 119.139
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 192
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+3 1/2); Over

Game 805-806: Detroit at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 113.973; Cleveland 125.223
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 11 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 13; 199
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+13); Under

Game 807-808: New York at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.295; Toronto 114.971
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 217
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 809-810: Boston at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.159; Philadelphia 112.745
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 6 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-6); Under

Game 811-812: Golden State at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.781; Atlanta 127.079
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 14 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 13; 215
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-13); Under

Game 813-814: Orlando at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 125.829; New Jersey 112.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 13 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 10; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-10); Under

Game 815-816: Sacramento at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.836; Dallas 125.188
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 12 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 817-818: Indiana at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 114.246; Denver 125.839
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 218
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10); Over

Game 819-820: New Orleans at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.967; San Antonio 124.099
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8); Under

Game 821-822: Oklahoma City at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.671; LA Clippers 114.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5; 201
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-5); Under
 
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NCAAB DUNKEL

Columbia at Yale
The Bulldogs look to bounce back from their loss at Harvard and build on their 13-3 ATS record following a SU loss. Yale is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Yale (-6)

Game 823-824: Fordham at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 40.431; Duquesne 59.076
Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 181/2
Vegas Line: Duquesne by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+19 1/2)

Game 825-826: Harvard at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 58.074; Pennsylvania 47.159
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11
Vegas Line: Harvard by 8
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-8)

Game 827-828: Dartmouth at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 39.529; Princeton 57.819
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+19 1/2)

Game 829-830: Cornell at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 60.461; Brown 44.731
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Cornell by 13 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-13 1/2)

Game 831-832: Columbia at Yale
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 41.869; Yale 50.353
Dunkel Line: Yale by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 6
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-6)

Game 833-834: Kent State at Akron
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 60.275; Akron 59.878
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Akron by 3
Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+3)

Game 835-836: St. John's at DePaul
Dunkel Ratings: St. John's 66.037; DePaul 59.893
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 6
Vegas Line: St. John's by 3
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-3)

Game 837-838: UC-Riverside at Long Beach State
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 49.614; Long Beach State 58.726
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 9
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 8
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-8)

Game 839-840: NC Wilmington vs. Towson
Dunkel Ratings: NC Wilmington 48.932; Towson 44.658
Dunkel Line: NC Wilmington by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: NC Wilmington by 1
Dunkel Pick: NC Wilmington (-1)

Game 841-842: Delaware vs. VCU
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 48.599; VCU 62.864
Dunkel Line: VCU by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Delaware (+16 1/2)

Game 843-844: Georgia State vs. Hofstra
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 51.285; Hofstra 62.194
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 11
Vegas Line: Hofstra by 6
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (-6)

Game 845-846: James Madison vs. Drexel
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 49.498; Drexel 57.894
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Drexel by 6
Dunkel Pick: Drexel (-6)

Game 847-848: Drake vs. Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 54.887; Northern Iowa 65.318
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 849-850: Bradley vs. Creighton
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 58.876; Creighton 60.806
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 2
Vegas Line: Creighton by 4
Dunkel Pick: Bradley (+4)

Game 851-852: Missouri State vs. Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 59.692; Wichita State 61.098
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 853-854: Indiana State vs. Illinois State
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 56.697; Illinois State 62.226
Dunkel Line: Illinois State by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Illinois State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+6)

Game 855-856: Detroit vs. WI-Green Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 57.029; WI-Green Bay 55.598
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1)

Game 857-858: Cleveland State vs. WI-Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 55.276; WI-Milwaukee 55.816
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 1
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+1 1/2)

Game 859-860: Elon vs. Davidson
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 46.543; Davidson 50.537
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 4
Vegas Line: Davidson by 9
Dunkel Pick: Elon (+9)

Game 861-862: Furman vs. NC Greensboro
Dunkel Ratings: Furman 48.581; NC Greensboro 45.286
Dunkel Line: Furman by 3
Vegas Line: Furman by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-2 1/2)

Game 863-864: Samford vs. The Citadel
Dunkel Ratings: Samford 45.291; The Citadel 54.381
Dunkel Line: The Citadel by 9
Vegas Line: The Citadel by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (-2 1/2)

Game 865-866: Georgia Southern vs. Chattanooga
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 43.522; Chattanooga 45.634
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 2
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 1
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (-1)

Game 867-868: Eastern Illinois vs. Murray State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 52.713; Murray State 63.348
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Murray State by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+12 1/2)

Game 869-870: Tennessee Tech at Morehead State
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 47.334; Morehead State 57.217
Dunkel Line: Morehead State by 10
Vegas Line: Morehead State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee Tech (+12)

Game 871-872: Manhattan vs. Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 49.520; Loyola-MD 50.334
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 1
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+2)

Game 873-874: Marist vs. Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 38.972; Canisius 49.109
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 10
Vegas Line: Canisius by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+11 1/2)

Game 875-876: Pepperdine vs. Loyola-Marymount
Dunkel Ratings: Pepperdine 42.396; Loyola-Marymount 58.547
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 16
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-9 1/2)

Game 877-878: Santa Clara vs. San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 49.957; San Diego 51.880
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2
Vegas Line: San Diego by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+3 1/2)

Game 879-880: Kennesaw State vs. East Tennessee State
Dunkel Ratings: Kennesaw State 40.584; East Tennessee State 52.867
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 881-882: Jacksonville at Mercer
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 55.329; Mercer 52.491
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 3
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
 
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NHL DUNKEL

Philadelphia at Buffalo
The Flyers look to take advantage of a Buffalo team that is 1-4 in its last 5 home games. Philadelphia is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Flyers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105)

Game 51-52: Philadelphia at Buffalo
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.427; Buffalo 10.578
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+105); Over

Game 53-54: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.670; Detroit 12.178
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under

Game 55-56: Vancouver at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.442; Chicago 11.092
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (+145); Over

Game 57-58: Minnesota at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 11.409; Edmonton 11.542
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+160); Over

Game 59-60: New Jersey at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 11.644; Calgary 11.994
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-110); Under
 

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March Madness now Minus 39.8 Units in 4 days

NBA MINUS 107 Units YTD


4* #804 CHARLOTTE/L.A. LAKERS Under

Two of the best defenses in the NBA both check in off of
uncharacteristically bad performances, which means a much sharper
focus here. And with some other key factors in play we have excellent
value for this setting.

The Lakers were embarrassed defensively at Miami last night. They
allowed the Heat to score at last(least) 25 points in three of the four
quarters, and then 15 more in the O.T. period, allowing 52.5 percent
shooting. Five different Miami players scored at least 12 points, and
Kobe Bryant summed it up succinctly - ?We just couldn?t get a
stop.?
For a team that is tied with Boston for #1 on our best set
of defensive ratings it means a lot of pride taking the court
tonight, and they are capable of locking down a struggling Charlotte
offense that has only scored more than 94 points one time in the last
10 games. But at the same time there are some weary Los Angeles legs
that can impact have an impact on their perimeter shooting, keyed by
Bryant going 45 minutes last night.

Meanwhile Charlotte is off of a similar embarrassment, allowing 104
points on 53.5 percent shooting at Boston on Wednesday, with the
Celtics knocking down 10-16 triples and dishing out 27 assists. That
is a slap in the face for a team that rates #5 on our best defensive
ratings, and there is no fear about them being able to respond ? in
their last two games on this court they held the Mavericks to 89
points and the Cavaliers to 93. In Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace
they are among the few teams that can match up to Bryant (he was held
to five points, on 2-12 shooting, on the west coast in the first
meeting this season), and given the current struggles of his own
offense, Larry Brown makes defense and tempo (Charlotte plays at the
27th slowest pace in the NBA) the cornerstones to his game plan.

Dave tried this Under when the teams last played in Los Angeles last month at a 5* level to take it in the ARSE in the final two possessions of the game when the lakers could have run the clock out but Farmar dunked the ball with 5 sec to go and charlotte hit a 3 at the buzzer to put the game over by 1 point !!

4* #821 OKLAHOMA CITY over L.A. CLIPPERS

The Thunder might have played their worst game of the season at
Denver on Wednesday night, falling behind by as many as 41 points
before losing 119-90. But in terms of adjustments there is nothing to
see there. It was a tired team having to deal with the altitude in a
back-to-back setting, and their 8th game in 12 days, and the legs
simply weren?t there. But instead of a downgrade a game like that can
actually turn out to be a plus going forward. And here is why.

A night like that for a playoff contender can be a good thing because
it means a chance for the starters to get some rest. No one was on
the court for more than Kevin Durrant?s 26:36, so we can expect a
positive physical energy when they take the court tonight. And from
the standpoint of mental focus this one can be special. One of the
keys to Oklahoma City developing so quickly is the chemistry and
savvy that has developed on the court far beyond the years of
experience of the roster, largely because the right pieces are in the
right places. So look at how they have responded to defeats this
season ? how about a sparkling 17-4 ATS, games in which they have
beaten the pointspread by a collective 163.6 points. Now they bring a
rare high level of focus against the downtrodden Clippers. Instead of
it being a night to coast they bring the intensity to make up for
Wednesday?s ugly loss, and with only a game at Sacramento on deck
Sunday, and then two more days off, there is absolutely no
look-ahead. Having won their last 15 games against opponents with
losing records, they have the discipline on the court to exploit the
weaknesses that they will be up against.

The Clippers bring plenty of those weaknesses. This is just a
make-shift group of impending free agents that will spend more time
jockeying for individual statistics down the stretch than Team W?s,
and they are ripe to be whipped by exactly the kind of sound
fundamental play that the Thunder bring to the table.

4* #876 LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT over PEPPERDINE

It was not surprising to see an early market trickle lower this one
down to -9 across the board, as the failure to adjust to where
Loyola-Marymount is now, as opposed to what some misleading
full-season numbers will show. We took advantage to cash a 5* ticket
behind the Lions at San Diego last Thursday, and while it was a sin
of omission to not follow up at Saint Mary?s on Saturday, we can get
back in play here.

As we noted last week, injuries took a toll during the Loyola regular
season, with the top seven players in the rotation missing 37 games.
But they are 8-2 SU with a starting lineup of Ashley Hamilton, Drew
Viney, Kevin Young, Jarred DuBois and Vernon Teel, and note just how
good they were down the stretch ? in a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS surge to
close out the season, they beat the top three teams in the
conference, Gonzaga, Portland and Saint Mary?s, by nine points over
165 floor minutes. That helped them to finish with 13 more wins than
last season, the second best turnaround in the history of the
program, and once can only wonder how good it would have been had
they stayed healthy all season. Now they are a confident and hungry
side, with the missing time from the key cogs actually bringing them
in a little fresher than they ordinarily would be after 30 games
(Teel and Young are the only ones that played in all 30).

Pepperdine? There is not much to say here except that we find that
classic example of a team that knows that they have no chance in this
tournament, and fully expect to go home after one game. The Waves
finished on a dismal 0-10 run in which nine of the losses came by 16
points or more, and the other was by eight vs. Santa Clara, a team
that won only three W.C.C. games. They do not have a SR in the
rotation, and produced one of the rare conference stat lines in which
their opponents shot more than 10 full percentages points better than
they did (47.9 vs. 37.3). Four times in the last eight games they
could not even reach 50 points, including drubbings by 76-49 at Saint
Mary?s and 65-48 at San Diego last weekend.

Since Loyola got everyone healthy in the last four games, the Lions
have played the same schedule as Pepperdine ? Portland and Gonzaga at
home, Saint Mary?s and San Diego on the road. Loyola won those games
by a collective +12, while the Waves fell by -83. That is an average
of 23.8 per game, which paints a much more proper portrait of this
matchup than the current line does.
 

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mreast ncaab mvc mauler

#849 bradley braves @ #850 creighton blue jays 3:35pm est

play on #849 bradley braves @ #850 creighton blue jays under 138.5 -110 for 3 units
 

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Sportsbetcapping

Freddy Wills Twins -120 (2-Dimes)

Anyone got Payne Sports GAme of the Week it's a max 5.5 unit play where he is 26-9 in his last 35?
 

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Billy Coleman
5* detroit in ncaa
3* Akron -3
3* Brad/Creigh ov137.5
3* Santa Clara +3.5

4* Det/Clev un199
3* Ind/Den ov218
Bonus Play: Wash +4.5
 

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MASTER SPORTS
5* nba gom is okla city -5.0 (kevin durrant hook em)
4* milw;
3*atl;
4* cleve st;
3* depaul
3* detroit
 

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RED DOG SPORTS
5* under 142 vcu-del (good luck finding a 142 now !)
5* ok city
 

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HOT SHOT SPORTS
nba gom 5* over milw 190.5
3* orlando;
3* ok city;
3*st johns -
3* on depaul
 

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LT Profits

NCAAB

NC Wilmington/Towson UNDER 142.5 -108
Elon/Davidson UNDER 137.5 -110
Delaware/Va Comm UNDER 140.5 -110
Eastern Illinois/Murray State UNDER 132.5 -110
James Madison/Drexel UNDER 128.5 -110
Marist/Canisius UNDER 126 -110

ADDED PLAY

LT Profits

NBA

Pistons/Cavaliers UNDER 198.5 -105
 

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Chuck O'Brien 4-2 (+40)
20* Sacramento +8.5 (Accu Dallas 107-98)
10* Wisconsin Green Bay +1
 

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Brandon Lang 2-2 (+25)
10* 826 Penn +8 (Accu Harvard 74-63)
5* 844 Hofstra -6 (Accu Hofstra 68-59(
 

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Stephen Nover 3-5(+15)
20* 840 Towson +2 (Accu NCW 71-69)
15* 821 Oklahoma City -4.5 (Accu 101-96)
 

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