CAJUN SPORTS
Lost last night with Wichita State
GAME: Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils 9:45 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#884) Duke Blue Devils -5
The Utah Utes advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009 by defeating Georgetown 75 to 64 in the round of 32. The Duke Blue Devils dispatched Robert Morris and San Diego State to advance to the Sweet 16. The Devils rolled over both opponents in blowout fashion covering as nine-point favorites against the Aztecs with a final score of 68 to 49 in the Round of 32. Jahlil Okafor had twenty-six points, six rebounds and three blocks in their win over San Diego State. Okafor has been a beast scoring 47 points in their two NCAA Tournament games which is the most by a Duke freshman in the history of Blue Devil basketball. Duke made the Sweet 16 for the thirteenth time in as many chances as a Number One seed. The Utes are led by guards Taylor and Wright who have both been instrumental in their advancement to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils installed as favorites in this price range have posted a record of 15-5 ats. Duke when installed as a favorite in this price range coming off a game in which they were the favorites has posted a record of 17-7-1 ats in their next game. If Duke won as the favorite in their last game they are 16-6 ats their next time on the hardwood. We want to Play AGAINST postseason road teams coming off a su win as a favorite and going Over the posted total. These postseason road teams are 41-70-4 ats in their next game. We want to Play AGAINST postseason road underdogs coming off a su win as a favorite and going Over in their last game because these postseason road pups are 38-62-3 ats. If our postseason road pup won both su and ats as a favorite while going Over the posted total are 29-47-4 ats their next time out. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.80 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.21 points with a line range of -5 to -7. The BSIM Matrix has the Blue Devils with a 74.04 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 9.93 with a transitional average of 43.9 and a conversion rate range of 48.95 to 50.77 percent in tonights contest. College favorites in this price range with a BBMM average of at least 7.75 points and an OD differential of more than 8.5 are a perfect 30-6-2 ats including a perfect 14-0 ats the last fourteen qualifying contests. The Duke Blue Devils have been in this particular situation (BTPR BBMM SIM min averages) seven times the last two seasons and they won and covered in all seven of those games. The Utes Madness ends on Friday night with Duke punching their ticket to the Elite 8 with a su and ats victory. Devils
GAME: NC State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals 7:35 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#877) NC State Wolfpack +3
The Wolfpack was installed as a double-digit underdog in their third round game against Number One seed Villanova last Saturday with few if any giving them a chance to cover the spread much less win straight up. If you watched that contest it was relatively obvious very early on that the Wolfpack were playing on a different level than Villanova. It was if Villanova had overlooked NC State and just assumed if they show up they will win and advance. It happens every year these young men (boys) start believing all the hype by the so-called experts and fail to show up against a lesser opponent with the outcome quite different than what they expected. NC State is playing into revenge because these two met during the regular season and the Wolfpack defeated the Cardinals 74 to 63 as ten-point road underdogs. Will Louisville avenge that loss and advance, our numbers say no because NC State scores higher in all of our primary indexes as well as the BSIM. NC State coming off a su and ats win in their last game and now installed as a conference road team has posted a record of 20-8-1 ats in this situation. We want to Play ON postseason teams coming off a su and ats win on the road versus a team with a winning record. These play on teams have posted a record of 104-68-7 ats. If they are installed as a road underdog the record is 74-46-3 ats. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of -5.76 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of -6.41 points with a line range of +2.5 to +4.5. The BSIM Matrix has NC State with a 72.97 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.16 with a transitional average of 41.4 and a conversion rate range of 42.56 to 44.7 percent in tonights contest. With significant support from our power index averages as well as technical and situational support all pointing to one team and the winner of this game we will follow the lead and play NC State plus the points. Wolfpack
NCAA Basketball TOTAL Selection(s):
Lost last night with Wichita State
GAME: Utah Utes vs. Duke Blue Devils 9:45 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#884) Duke Blue Devils -5
The Utah Utes advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009 by defeating Georgetown 75 to 64 in the round of 32. The Duke Blue Devils dispatched Robert Morris and San Diego State to advance to the Sweet 16. The Devils rolled over both opponents in blowout fashion covering as nine-point favorites against the Aztecs with a final score of 68 to 49 in the Round of 32. Jahlil Okafor had twenty-six points, six rebounds and three blocks in their win over San Diego State. Okafor has been a beast scoring 47 points in their two NCAA Tournament games which is the most by a Duke freshman in the history of Blue Devil basketball. Duke made the Sweet 16 for the thirteenth time in as many chances as a Number One seed. The Utes are led by guards Taylor and Wright who have both been instrumental in their advancement to the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils installed as favorites in this price range have posted a record of 15-5 ats. Duke when installed as a favorite in this price range coming off a game in which they were the favorites has posted a record of 17-7-1 ats in their next game. If Duke won as the favorite in their last game they are 16-6 ats their next time on the hardwood. We want to Play AGAINST postseason road teams coming off a su win as a favorite and going Over the posted total. These postseason road teams are 41-70-4 ats in their next game. We want to Play AGAINST postseason road underdogs coming off a su win as a favorite and going Over in their last game because these postseason road pups are 38-62-3 ats. If our postseason road pup won both su and ats as a favorite while going Over the posted total are 29-47-4 ats their next time out. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 12.80 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 8.21 points with a line range of -5 to -7. The BSIM Matrix has the Blue Devils with a 74.04 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 9.93 with a transitional average of 43.9 and a conversion rate range of 48.95 to 50.77 percent in tonights contest. College favorites in this price range with a BBMM average of at least 7.75 points and an OD differential of more than 8.5 are a perfect 30-6-2 ats including a perfect 14-0 ats the last fourteen qualifying contests. The Duke Blue Devils have been in this particular situation (BTPR BBMM SIM min averages) seven times the last two seasons and they won and covered in all seven of those games. The Utes Madness ends on Friday night with Duke punching their ticket to the Elite 8 with a su and ats victory. Devils
GAME: NC State Wolfpack vs. Louisville Cardinals 7:35 PM EST
RATING: 5* (#877) NC State Wolfpack +3
The Wolfpack was installed as a double-digit underdog in their third round game against Number One seed Villanova last Saturday with few if any giving them a chance to cover the spread much less win straight up. If you watched that contest it was relatively obvious very early on that the Wolfpack were playing on a different level than Villanova. It was if Villanova had overlooked NC State and just assumed if they show up they will win and advance. It happens every year these young men (boys) start believing all the hype by the so-called experts and fail to show up against a lesser opponent with the outcome quite different than what they expected. NC State is playing into revenge because these two met during the regular season and the Wolfpack defeated the Cardinals 74 to 63 as ten-point road underdogs. Will Louisville avenge that loss and advance, our numbers say no because NC State scores higher in all of our primary indexes as well as the BSIM. NC State coming off a su and ats win in their last game and now installed as a conference road team has posted a record of 20-8-1 ats in this situation. We want to Play ON postseason teams coming off a su and ats win on the road versus a team with a winning record. These play on teams have posted a record of 104-68-7 ats. If they are installed as a road underdog the record is 74-46-3 ats. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of -5.76 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of -6.41 points with a line range of +2.5 to +4.5. The BSIM Matrix has NC State with a 72.97 percent advantage against the spread in tonights contest. The Pace-Tempo Matrix has an offensive-defensive differential of 5.16 with a transitional average of 41.4 and a conversion rate range of 42.56 to 44.7 percent in tonights contest. With significant support from our power index averages as well as technical and situational support all pointing to one team and the winner of this game we will follow the lead and play NC State plus the points. Wolfpack
NCAA Basketball TOTAL Selection(s):
STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAB REPORT
FRIDAY, MARCH 27th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 3/27/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Friday's Notebook
•Gonzaga is in Sweet 16 for first time since 98-77 loss to North Carolina as 4-seed six years ago; Bulldogs won 87-74 at UCLA Dec 13, shooting 65% inside arc in game where Pangos scored only 9 points- both teams were 9-19 on arc. UCLA won six of last seven games, but five of the wins came against teams ranked #120 or lower- they played 14-seed UAB in last game. WCC teams are 1-5 vs. spread this postseason, all as favorites; Pac-12 teams are 9-4, 3-0 as an underdog. Since 2005, #2-seeds are 11-12 versus spread in this round; since 2010, 11-seeds who get this far are 2-4 SU, 4-2 against the spread, with losses by 13-18-3-2 points.
•Louisville was in same exact spot LY, 4-seed playing 8-seed, only 8-seed was Kentucky and Wildcats upset their rival 74-69 (+4). Underdogs beat spread in Cardinals' last three Sweet 16 games. NC State won 74-65 at Louisville Feb 14, in what was last game for Chris Jones as Cardinal PG; Louisville shot only 29.5% inside arc. Wolfpack were just 16-28 on foul line. NC State won eight of last ten games, with last two wins by total of four points. Underdogs were 2-2 versus spread last night, making them 25-11 against the spread in this round last 4.5 years. Louisville allowed 54 ppg in first two tourney games, beating mid-major teams by 2-13 points.
•Since 2005, Duke is 2-4 in this round of NCAAs; they were favored in all six games; Blue Devils are 14-1 in last 15 games; they beat Stanford by 11 in only Pac-12 game this season. Utah allowed 57 ppg in winning couple games last weekend; they're 12-2 outside Pac-12, probably happy just to be here, seeing as they were 3-4 in last seven games before tournament. Utes are #8 in country shooting 3's, making 40.8% from arc. ACC teams are 8-10 vs. spread this season, 4-9 as a favorite; Pac-12 teams are 9-4, 3-0 as an underdog. Couple #1-seeds covered last night, making them 5-10 against the spread in last 15 games in this round.
•Since 2007, lower-seeded teams who are favored in this round are 1-5 vs. spread, with only cover Louisville over Tennessee in '08. Michigan State is 3-3 in this round the last seven years; Spartans lost to Kansas by 5 in only Big 12 game this season, but allowed 58.5 ppg in two wins last week beating Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma lost to Wisconsin by 13 in its only Big Ten game; they allowed 63 ppg last week, beating Albany by 9, Dayton by 6. Big Ten teams are 5-8 versus spread this postseason, 3-3 as a favorite; Big 12 teams are 4-7 against the spread, 0-1 as an underdog. Sooners are last Big 12 team left, after they had such a strong regular season.
#1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 18-8 ATS (Duke)
#2 Seeds are 10-3 ATS off a DD ATS win (Gonzaga)
#3 Seeds off an ATS win are 1-5 ATS L3Y (Oklahoma)
#4 Seed favorites 4 < pts are 1-5 ATS (Louisville)
#8 Seed dogs are 5-0 ATS (NC State)
#Louisville’s Rick Pitino is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 during his career.
Hoop Trends - Friday
•UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season.
The average score was UCLA 63.9, OPPONENT 63.3.
•UTAH is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 63.7, OPPONENT 65.7.
•GONZAGA is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was GONZAGA 79.1, OPPONENT 68.3.
•KENT ST is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was KENT ST 33.5, OPPONENT 27.4.
•NC STATE is 25-4 UNDER (+20.6 Units) the 1rst half total in a post-season tournament game since 1997.
The average score was NC STATE 27.8, OPPONENT 29.4.
•MARK GOTTFRIED is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games as the coach of NC STATE.
The average score was GOTTFRIED 67.1, OPPONENT 65.4.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more.
(65-20 since 1997.) (76.5%, +43.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 145
The average score in these games was: Team 73.1, Opponent 67.6 (Total points scored = 140.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 40 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
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Friday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
UCLA BRUINS (22-13) vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (34-2)
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Gonzaga -8.5
UCLA and Gonzaga meet for a second time this season on Friday evening, but this time a spot in the Elite Eight is on the line. UCLA has been extremely hot lately, winning six of its past seven games SU and covering in four straight. The team faced UAB last round and won 92-75 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Bruins shot 60.3% from the field in that game and also won the rebounding battle 41-26. Gonzaga, meanwhile, won its fifth straight game in an 87-68 victory over Iowa as a 6-point favorite last round. Over the past three games, the Bulldogs are averaging an outrageous 88.0 PPG. These two teams met at Pauley Pavilion on Dec. 13, 2014, when the Bulldogs won 87-74 as 7.5-point favorites. Gonzaga shot 58.5% from the floor in that game and won the rebounding battle 34-30.
The Bulldogs are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when facing the Bruins since 1997 and will look to continue that strong play in this head-to-head series on Friday. UCLA is 6-0 ATS after a game where it made 50% of its threes or better this season. It is also 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 75 or more points over the past two seasons. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is 28-14 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games since 1997. UCLA comes into this game at full strength, but Gonzaga continues to be without Josh Perkins (Jaw) indefinitely.
UCLA has really played well recently, but the team now faces a whole different animal in Gonzaga. The Bruins have been a very good team offensively this season, averaging 72.0 PPG (62nd in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (135th in NCAA). The problem with UCLA is that it has allowed 68.0 PPG (215th in NCAA) this season. The team will need to get creative in order to find ways to stop the Bulldogs Friday. G Bryce Alford (15.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1,0 SPG) should be more than ready to play in this one. Alford is averaging 24.5 PPG in the tournament so far and has gone a ridiculous 12-for-16 from the outside in those two games. He is an excellent shooter and also knows when to get his teammates involved. The last time he faced Gonzaga, Alford had 23 points, three assists and three steals. He’ll need to play well in his matchup with Kevin Pangos in this one.
Gs Isaac Hamilton (10.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Norman Powell (16.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) will also need to be productive in this backcourt. Hamilton provided a huge spark against UAB last round, racking up 13 points, seven assists and four boards in 37 minutes. He had 18 points the last time he faced the Bulldogs and will need to make a similar impact Friday. Powell, meanwhile, is averaging 17.0 PPG in the tournament and knows how to attack the basket with the best of them. He had 12 points in 35 minutes against Gonzaga in their last meeting and will need to continue to drive the ball towards the rim and try to draw fouls on the Bulldogs’ monstrous frontcourt.
F Kevin Looney (11.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had 14 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals the last time he faced Gonzaga. He is very long and athletic and must use that to his advantage on Friday. C Tony Parker (11.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) had a dominant performance last round, putting up 28 points, 12 boards and three blocks against UAB. He had just five points the last time he faced Gonzaga though and must find a way to avoid foul trouble against a much bigger player in Przemek Karnowski.
Gonzaga has been absolutely dominant on offense this season, putting up 79.1 PPG (10th in NCAA) on 52.4% shooting (1st in NCAA). The Bulldogs rebound the ball well (37.9 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also are willing to share offensively (16.5 APG, 6th in NCAA). Defensively they are allowing just 61.5 PPG (50th in NCAA), but they can get careless at times and really let their opponents go off. G Kevin Pangos (11.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is the heart and soul of this Gonzaga team. Pangos is an unbelievable shooter (45% 3PT) and rarely turns the ball over (1.3 TOPG). He did, however, have just nine points (3-for-9 FG, 1-for-6 3PT) the last time he faced UCLA and can’t afford to do that again here.
F Kyle Wiltjer (17.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another ridiculous outside shooter (48% 3PT) for the Bulldogs. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in two tournament games so far and had 24 points the last time he faced UCLA. Wiltjer will need to stretch the floor against the Bruins. G Gary Bell Jr. (8.4 PPG) is an experienced member of this backcourt. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG in two tournament games so far and will need to come through in stretches when his team is cold. He has hit timely shots throughout the course of his career and will need to continue to do so with this much on the line. C Przemek Karnowski (10.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and F Domantas Sabonis (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will need to control the paint in this game. Tony Parker was hot for UCLA last round and the Bulldogs can’t let him play like that Friday. They’ll need to play well defensively and also draw fouls when they get in the paint on offense.
N.C. STATE WOLFPACK (22-13) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (26-8)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:37 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -3.0
In an ACC rematch from mid-February, the stakes are higher as Louisville looks for revenge against North Carolina State and a spot in the Elite Eight. Upstart No. 8 seed North Carolina State is fresh off being the first team in 2015 to drop a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (71-68 on Saturday against Villanova). The Wolfpack were +9.5, but are no strangers to winning SU as heavy underdogs, as you can just ask their Sweet 16 opponents, Louisville, about that. On Feb. 14 these new ACC foes met for the first time in-conference with Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite only to watch North Carolina State pull off a 74-65 road win. The Cardinals get their shot at redemption against the Wolfpack after a sluggish win over No. 13 seed UC Irvine (57-55) and then a win as 2.5-point underdogs over Northern Iowa (66-53) on Sunday.
Louisville comes into this contest really struggling to cover (3-7 ATS) over their past 10 games. This will also mark the seventh game (eighth game overall) that Louisville plays without dismissed G Chris Jones (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS without Jones). This will be the third time that Louisville will have a “rematch game” (versus a team they lost to) and they won-and-covered both previous instances (Virginia, North Carolina) in the regular season. Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried is 9-10 overall in NCAA Tournament play between his career at Murray State, Alabama and North Carolina State (4-3 with the Wolfpack). Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s NCAA Tournament success is well documented as the only collegiate coach in history to take three different schools to a Final Four. A two-time national champion (Kentucky, Louisville), Pitino’s Cardinals are looking to avoid losing in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
In the Valentine’s Day victory at Louisville, North Carolina State was led by its backcourt’s contribution of 45 points combined. Led by G Anthony “Cat” Barber (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) who scored 21 of those 45 points (10-for-13 at the free throw line) and supported by G Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 3PM/G) who had 14 points and senior G Ralston Turner (12.8 PPG, 2.6 3PM/G) who chipped in 10 points, the Wolfpack guards did their part on offense while holding Louisville stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points, while also getting Rozier to foul out in 28 minutes.
The North Carolina State big men also did their part, leading the Wolfpack to a +10 margin on the glass (47-37). C Beejay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 19.3 MPG) contributed eight points, 10 boards and three blocks in the win, while staying on the court for 28 minutes. Anya, who you’ll remember hit the game-winning shot against LSU in the round of 64 to keep the Wolfpack alive in this tournament, is extremely foul prone, but must stay on the floor to battle Louisville’s size. North Carolina State is 6-1 when Anya plays 25+ minutes.
Another young, foul-prone Wolfpack big man, freshman F Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 PPG) has also proven himself integral to North Carolina State’s recent success, as he’s scored double-figures in his past three games. Bruising sophomore F Leonard Freeman (3.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) rounds out the frontcourt, and was a key part in the Wolfpack’s upset over Villanova on Saturday while collecting a double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds). Another win over the Cardinals, though, will begin and end with the Wolfpack’s backcourt taking care of the ball, as Barber, Lacey and Turner only turned it over four times in the first meeting against Louisville’s vaunted defense. North Carolina State only commits 10.5 turnovers per game (22nd in NCAA) which bodes well for repeat success.
The Cardinals seem to have finally found their footing playing without the aforementioned Jones, even though creating easy offense continues to be a problem (61.0 PPG in eight games without Jones). As much as Coach Pitino’s style is a frenetic, pressing, quick-shooting team, this season’s version (at least on offense) is anything but, as both tournament wins over UC Irvine and Northern Iowa have seen Louisville with efficient but very slow-paced offense (57 and 54 possessions, respectively). Part of that had to do with their opponent, but some of it seems to be Pitino playing to his personnel. The Cardinals executed well to the tune of 46% from the field against Northern Iowa and capitalized from the free throw line (17-for-21).
No player came up bigger in the round of 32 than G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2 SPG) who put up his most efficient and effective outing since shouldering more of the scoring load with Jones’ departure (25 points, five rebounds, seven assists, 8-for-13 FG, 8-for-9 FT). Rozier can ill-afford a repeat performance of fouling out with single-digits as he did in the first meeting against the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points in that loss to keep Louisville afloat, but the Cardinals obviously don’t have that same depth in the backcourt to fall back on. G Quentin Snider (3.8 PPG) has been steady as the new starter flanking Rozier, scoring double-figures in five of his eight starts, including back-to-back games (on 10-for-20 FG) during the NCAA Tournament. Snider isn’t, however, the havoc-inducing defensive force that the departed Jones was in the open floor.
F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 57% FG) leads the Louisville frontcourt, but is struggling (by his standards) after entering tournament play with three straight double-doubles. Harrell has only grabbed 10 rebounds total in two NCAA games, while scoring just 22 total points. An increase in pace against an average Wolfpack defense could cure what ails him, although Harrell only went 1-for-5 from the field for seven points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting. F Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM/G) is the lone senior on the team and is shooting the ball with confidence from deep over his past three games (7-for-16). Given an opening, Blackshear isn’t shy (19 points on 20 shots in the first round win over UC Irvine), and he enjoyed success in the first meeting versus the Wolfpack (19 points on 7-for-10 from the field, 4-for-6 from three).
UTAH UTES (26-8) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (31-4)
NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5.5
A clash of styles highlights No. 1 seed Duke taking on No. 5 seed Utah for the right to move on to the Elite Eight. The Duke Blue Devils and their high-powered offense will look to keep pushing the pace when they face off against Utah and the Utes’ stingy defense and grind-it-out style on Friday night. Duke was able to overpower a similarly-profiled foe, No. 8 seed San Diego State, on Saturday to the tune of a 68-49 win. The Blue Devils shot 55% in the win. Duke is 14-1 SU (10-5 ATS) over its past 15 games, including an opening round 85-56 win-and-cover over No. 16 seeded Robert Morris. Utah defeated trendy upset pick, No. 12 seed Stephen F. Austin (57-50) in the opening round, and then dismissed No. 4 seed Georgetown 75-64 on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Utes shot 58% from the field (8-for-14 from three) and had four players in double-figures in the Georgetown win.
Utah is 6-4 SU (4-5-1 ATS) in its past 10 games. Utah lost to San Diego State (Duke and Utah’s only common opponent) 53-49 in mid-November to start out its season. Overall against non-conference NCAA tournament teams, Utah is 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS) but the Utes were just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) versus the Pac-12’s other three NCAA tournament teams. Duke was 2-0 SU (2-0) ATS in non-conference games versus NCAA teams and 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) versus ACC foes that made the NCAA tournament. This is the other Coach K’s (Utes’ coach Larry Krystowiak’s) first NCAA appearance with the Utes (Krystowiak was 1-2 in the NCAA tournament as head coach of Montana). Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is the winningest men’s basketball coach in division 1 history, and he’s won 82 NCAA tournament games. Recently, however, Coach K has overseen two early-round exits for his Blue Devils in the past three seasons. Duke has made the Elite Eight once since 2010. Utes G Kenneth Ogbe (groin) (4.5 PPG) has missed the past seven games and is questionable for Friday night.
Utah boasts the 11th best scoring defense in the nation (56.9 PPG) and the 8th best field goal defense in the nation (38.3% FG), both tops in the Pac-12. These gaudy numbers will be put to the test like never before against Duke’s talented, multi-faceted offense. Utah is 0-4 when allowing teams to shoot above 46% from the field (Duke shoots 50.7% FG). That said, Duke is vulnerable on defense. In the five times Duke has allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, it is 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) with the lone win being a 91-86 overtime squeaker over ACC doormat, Virginia Tech. Utah has been able to shoot 50% or better in four of its past eight games and, like Duke, is a top-10 offense from the field (48.7% FG, 8th in NCAA).
The Utes are led by do-everything senior G Delon Wright (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 2.1 SPG, 53% FG). Wright, as a 6-foot-6 point guard, can easily see over the defense to help Utah get easy buckets. His size and athleticism could prove problematic for Duke’s smaller backcourt. Aiding Wright are juniors, G Brandon Taylor (10.7 PPG, 44% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) and F Jordan Loveridge (10.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 3PM) have started every game for the Utes in their rise from the bottom of the Pac-12 to the Sweet 16. Taylor is coming off of a 14-point performance (4-for-8 from three) versus Georgetown, while Loveridge has scored double-figures in six of his past seven contests.
In seven-foot freshman C Jakob Poeltl (8.7 PPG, 6.9 PPG, 1.7 BPG) Utah will finally be able to offer a like-sized counterpart for Duke’s standout freshman center, Jahlil Okafor. If Poeltl can stay on the floor and force someone else from the Blue Devils to beat Utah from the perimeter, it would greatly enhance Utah’s chances of pulling the upset. To his credit, Poeltl has played fantastic on offense in Utah’s two tournament wins, having only missed one shot (12-for13 FG) for 30 total points. Foul trouble limited Poeltl to 18 minutes in the Georgetown win, however.
Duke’s offense is, at this point, a well-oiled machine. Its aforementioned 50.9% from the field is good for 2nd overall in the nation. Even Duke’s “off nights” from the field are solid, as it has played an astounding 19 straight games shooting 45% or better from the field. Duke's scoring offense, at 80.4 PPG (4th in NCAA) is impressive, but it doesn’t mean the team has to run-and-gun to win. As shown in the Blue Devils’ blowout win over San Diego State, Duke was able to grind out a 68-49 win with offensive efficiency (54.5% FG, 43% 3PT) against an opponent who – similarly to Utah – struggles to score at times. Utah is content to let their opponents grind out possessions, so expect Duke to be aggressive looking to make the extra pass and find standout C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG).
Utah is a much different defensive team without its own freshman seven-footer, Jakob Poeltl, on the floor, and Okafor is more than capable of getting Poeltl in foul trouble. Okafor has scored 21 and 26 points respectively in his two tournament games. Fellow freshman F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has been a stat-sheet-stuffer in his two tournament games, averaging 11.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. Don’t be surprised if coach Krzyzewski has Winslow keeping one eye on Utah’s Delon Wright at all times. Gs Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 40% 3PT, 2.8 3PM) round out the firepower for Duke’s offense, as Cook has scored 37 points over his two tournament games (9-for-18 from long distance). Jones has been steady-yet-unspectacular, with 13 assists to only three turnovers, but is capable of popping off for big scoring games when the situation calls for it (see two 20+ point outings versus North Carolina).
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (25-11) vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (24-10)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -2.0
Michigan State looks to pull off another upset when it plays Oklahoma for a spot in the Elite Eight Friday. Michigan State faced Virginia in its last game and won 60-54 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Spartans have now won-and-covered in two straight games, allowing just 58.5 PPG in those contests. This team knows how to win games in March and will now look for yet another big win in order to advance in this tournament. Oklahoma is not going to roll over and give it to them though. The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 as 4-point favorites last round and have now won seven of their past nine games SU. This team has been excellent defensively as well, allowing just 60.5 PPG over the past four games.
These teams last met on Nov. 23, 2013, when Michigan State beat Oklahoma 87-76 as an 11.5-point home favorite. Since 1997, the Spartans are 3-2 SU but just 2-3 ATS against the Sooners, but the meeting in 2013 was their only one in the past three seasons. Michigan State is 13-6 ATS after having won two of its past three games this season. The team is also 13-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past three seasons. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover eight or more of its past 10 games since 1997. F Javon Bess (Foot) is out for the season for Michigan State and Oklahoma is not currently dealing with any significant injuries.
Michigan State has been an extremely tough team to play against on both ends of the floor. The Spartans are scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd NCAA) and allowing just 63.1 PPG (85th in NCAA) this season. The team knows how to move the ball (17.1 APG, 4th in NCAA) and is also very good on the glass (37.7 RPG, 36th in NCAA). G Denzel Valentine (14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG) is this team’s most important player, and he was fortunate that his team bailed him out against Virginia. Valentine was awful in that game, scoring just four points (1-for-6 FG) with some awful shooting percentages and he also racked up four personal fouls. He’ll need to find his stroke against Oklahoma and he also has to find a way to stay on the court by playing disciplined defense.
G Travis Trice (15.0 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is really the reason this team was able to advance. Trice caught fire against the Cavaliers last round, finishing with 23 points (7-for-15 FG, 4-for-8 3PT, 5-for-6 3PT) in 39 minutes of action. Trice will need to continue to knock down outside shoots, which is something he has done all season (37% 3PT). He must also find his teammates when he can’t create for himself, as he is one of the best passers on this Michigan State roster. F Branden Dawson (12.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is this team’s toughest player inside. Dawson came up huge against Virginia last round, scoring 15 points and also adding nine rebounds and four blocks in 34 minutes of action. He’ll need to continue to protect the rim and finish around the basket for the Spartans.
Oklahoma’s numbers were very comparable to Michigan State’s this season, averaging 71.9 PPG (65th in NCAA) on 43.6% shooting (167th in NCAA) and allowing just 62.8 PPG (74th in NCAA). This team is also very tough on the glass, averaging 38.1 RPG (23rd in NCAA) and 27.1 of those come on the defensive end (5th in NCAA). G Buddy Hield (17.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG) is this team’s best offensive player. Hield is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far, but he is shooting just 34.5% from the field in those two games. He is a good outside shooter (36% 3PT) and must start shooting more accurately, as he can’t afford to shoot his team out of games. G Jordan Woodard (9.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG) played one of his best games of the season against Dayton last round, finishing with 16 points, four steals and three assists in 35 minutes of action. He is the best passer that the Sooners have and if he is scoring like that then this team will be very tough to beat.
Isaiah Cousins (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) is another extremely productive player in this backcourt, but he is averaging just 7.5 PPG in the tournament so far. Cousins will need to be at his best against Michigan State and that would mean he breaks through and finally hits double digits this round. Fs Ryan Spangler (9.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and TaShawn Thomas (11.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG) combined for 21 rebounds in the game against Dayton. They did, however, score just 15 combined points and will need to be much better offensively. These guys are both counted on to reach double digits and they’ll need to play well against this Michigan State frontcourt.
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FRIDAY, MARCH 27th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Friday, 3/27/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Friday's Notebook
•Gonzaga is in Sweet 16 for first time since 98-77 loss to North Carolina as 4-seed six years ago; Bulldogs won 87-74 at UCLA Dec 13, shooting 65% inside arc in game where Pangos scored only 9 points- both teams were 9-19 on arc. UCLA won six of last seven games, but five of the wins came against teams ranked #120 or lower- they played 14-seed UAB in last game. WCC teams are 1-5 vs. spread this postseason, all as favorites; Pac-12 teams are 9-4, 3-0 as an underdog. Since 2005, #2-seeds are 11-12 versus spread in this round; since 2010, 11-seeds who get this far are 2-4 SU, 4-2 against the spread, with losses by 13-18-3-2 points.
•Louisville was in same exact spot LY, 4-seed playing 8-seed, only 8-seed was Kentucky and Wildcats upset their rival 74-69 (+4). Underdogs beat spread in Cardinals' last three Sweet 16 games. NC State won 74-65 at Louisville Feb 14, in what was last game for Chris Jones as Cardinal PG; Louisville shot only 29.5% inside arc. Wolfpack were just 16-28 on foul line. NC State won eight of last ten games, with last two wins by total of four points. Underdogs were 2-2 versus spread last night, making them 25-11 against the spread in this round last 4.5 years. Louisville allowed 54 ppg in first two tourney games, beating mid-major teams by 2-13 points.
•Since 2005, Duke is 2-4 in this round of NCAAs; they were favored in all six games; Blue Devils are 14-1 in last 15 games; they beat Stanford by 11 in only Pac-12 game this season. Utah allowed 57 ppg in winning couple games last weekend; they're 12-2 outside Pac-12, probably happy just to be here, seeing as they were 3-4 in last seven games before tournament. Utes are #8 in country shooting 3's, making 40.8% from arc. ACC teams are 8-10 vs. spread this season, 4-9 as a favorite; Pac-12 teams are 9-4, 3-0 as an underdog. Couple #1-seeds covered last night, making them 5-10 against the spread in last 15 games in this round.
•Since 2007, lower-seeded teams who are favored in this round are 1-5 vs. spread, with only cover Louisville over Tennessee in '08. Michigan State is 3-3 in this round the last seven years; Spartans lost to Kansas by 5 in only Big 12 game this season, but allowed 58.5 ppg in two wins last week beating Georgia by 7, Virginia by 6, Oklahoma lost to Wisconsin by 13 in its only Big Ten game; they allowed 63 ppg last week, beating Albany by 9, Dayton by 6. Big Ten teams are 5-8 versus spread this postseason, 3-3 as a favorite; Big 12 teams are 4-7 against the spread, 0-1 as an underdog. Sooners are last Big 12 team left, after they had such a strong regular season.
#1 Seeds off BB SUATS wins are 18-8 ATS (Duke)
#2 Seeds are 10-3 ATS off a DD ATS win (Gonzaga)
#3 Seeds off an ATS win are 1-5 ATS L3Y (Oklahoma)
#4 Seed favorites 4 < pts are 1-5 ATS (Louisville)
#8 Seed dogs are 5-0 ATS (NC State)
#Louisville’s Rick Pitino is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the Sweet 16 during his career.
Hoop Trends - Friday
•UCLA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots after 15+ games this season.
The average score was UCLA 63.9, OPPONENT 63.3.
•UTAH is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) versus top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UTAH 63.7, OPPONENT 65.7.
•GONZAGA is 11-1 (+10.0 Units) against the money line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was GONZAGA 79.1, OPPONENT 68.3.
•KENT ST is 9-1 (+7.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season.
The average score was KENT ST 33.5, OPPONENT 27.4.
•NC STATE is 25-4 UNDER (+20.6 Units) the 1rst half total in a post-season tournament game since 1997.
The average score was NC STATE 27.8, OPPONENT 29.4.
•MARK GOTTFRIED is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games as the coach of NC STATE.
The average score was GOTTFRIED 67.1, OPPONENT 65.4.
Situational Analysis of The Day
•Play Under - All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GONZAGA) - a good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against an average 3PT defense (32-36.5%), after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 165 points or more.
(65-20 since 1997.) (76.5%, +43.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 145
The average score in these games was: Team 73.1, Opponent 67.6 (Total points scored = 140.7)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 40 (47.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
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Friday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
UCLA BRUINS (22-13) vs. GONZAGA BULLDOGS (34-2)
NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Gonzaga -8.5
UCLA and Gonzaga meet for a second time this season on Friday evening, but this time a spot in the Elite Eight is on the line. UCLA has been extremely hot lately, winning six of its past seven games SU and covering in four straight. The team faced UAB last round and won 92-75 as a 5.5-point favorite. The Bruins shot 60.3% from the field in that game and also won the rebounding battle 41-26. Gonzaga, meanwhile, won its fifth straight game in an 87-68 victory over Iowa as a 6-point favorite last round. Over the past three games, the Bulldogs are averaging an outrageous 88.0 PPG. These two teams met at Pauley Pavilion on Dec. 13, 2014, when the Bulldogs won 87-74 as 7.5-point favorites. Gonzaga shot 58.5% from the floor in that game and won the rebounding battle 34-30.
The Bulldogs are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when facing the Bruins since 1997 and will look to continue that strong play in this head-to-head series on Friday. UCLA is 6-0 ATS after a game where it made 50% of its threes or better this season. It is also 6-0 ATS when revenging a loss where its opponent scored 75 or more points over the past two seasons. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is 28-14 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more in two straight games since 1997. UCLA comes into this game at full strength, but Gonzaga continues to be without Josh Perkins (Jaw) indefinitely.
UCLA has really played well recently, but the team now faces a whole different animal in Gonzaga. The Bruins have been a very good team offensively this season, averaging 72.0 PPG (62nd in NCAA) on 44.1% shooting (135th in NCAA). The problem with UCLA is that it has allowed 68.0 PPG (215th in NCAA) this season. The team will need to get creative in order to find ways to stop the Bulldogs Friday. G Bryce Alford (15.6 PPG, 4.9 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1,0 SPG) should be more than ready to play in this one. Alford is averaging 24.5 PPG in the tournament so far and has gone a ridiculous 12-for-16 from the outside in those two games. He is an excellent shooter and also knows when to get his teammates involved. The last time he faced Gonzaga, Alford had 23 points, three assists and three steals. He’ll need to play well in his matchup with Kevin Pangos in this one.
Gs Isaac Hamilton (10.6 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Norman Powell (16.4 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) will also need to be productive in this backcourt. Hamilton provided a huge spark against UAB last round, racking up 13 points, seven assists and four boards in 37 minutes. He had 18 points the last time he faced the Bulldogs and will need to make a similar impact Friday. Powell, meanwhile, is averaging 17.0 PPG in the tournament and knows how to attack the basket with the best of them. He had 12 points in 35 minutes against Gonzaga in their last meeting and will need to continue to drive the ball towards the rim and try to draw fouls on the Bulldogs’ monstrous frontcourt.
F Kevin Looney (11.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.3 SPG) had 14 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals the last time he faced Gonzaga. He is very long and athletic and must use that to his advantage on Friday. C Tony Parker (11.4 PPG, 6.6 RPG) had a dominant performance last round, putting up 28 points, 12 boards and three blocks against UAB. He had just five points the last time he faced Gonzaga though and must find a way to avoid foul trouble against a much bigger player in Przemek Karnowski.
Gonzaga has been absolutely dominant on offense this season, putting up 79.1 PPG (10th in NCAA) on 52.4% shooting (1st in NCAA). The Bulldogs rebound the ball well (37.9 RPG, 30th in NCAA) and also are willing to share offensively (16.5 APG, 6th in NCAA). Defensively they are allowing just 61.5 PPG (50th in NCAA), but they can get careless at times and really let their opponents go off. G Kevin Pangos (11.8 PPG, 4.9 APG, 2.7 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is the heart and soul of this Gonzaga team. Pangos is an unbelievable shooter (45% 3PT) and rarely turns the ball over (1.3 TOPG). He did, however, have just nine points (3-for-9 FG, 1-for-6 3PT) the last time he faced UCLA and can’t afford to do that again here.
F Kyle Wiltjer (17.1 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another ridiculous outside shooter (48% 3PT) for the Bulldogs. He’s averaging 23.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG in two tournament games so far and had 24 points the last time he faced UCLA. Wiltjer will need to stretch the floor against the Bruins. G Gary Bell Jr. (8.4 PPG) is an experienced member of this backcourt. He’s averaging 11.5 PPG in two tournament games so far and will need to come through in stretches when his team is cold. He has hit timely shots throughout the course of his career and will need to continue to do so with this much on the line. C Przemek Karnowski (10.9 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and F Domantas Sabonis (9.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG) will need to control the paint in this game. Tony Parker was hot for UCLA last round and the Bulldogs can’t let him play like that Friday. They’ll need to play well defensively and also draw fouls when they get in the paint on offense.
N.C. STATE WOLFPACK (22-13) vs. LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (26-8)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 7:37 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Louisville -3.0
In an ACC rematch from mid-February, the stakes are higher as Louisville looks for revenge against North Carolina State and a spot in the Elite Eight. Upstart No. 8 seed North Carolina State is fresh off being the first team in 2015 to drop a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (71-68 on Saturday against Villanova). The Wolfpack were +9.5, but are no strangers to winning SU as heavy underdogs, as you can just ask their Sweet 16 opponents, Louisville, about that. On Feb. 14 these new ACC foes met for the first time in-conference with Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite only to watch North Carolina State pull off a 74-65 road win. The Cardinals get their shot at redemption against the Wolfpack after a sluggish win over No. 13 seed UC Irvine (57-55) and then a win as 2.5-point underdogs over Northern Iowa (66-53) on Sunday.
Louisville comes into this contest really struggling to cover (3-7 ATS) over their past 10 games. This will also mark the seventh game (eighth game overall) that Louisville plays without dismissed G Chris Jones (5-3 SU, 2-6 ATS without Jones). This will be the third time that Louisville will have a “rematch game” (versus a team they lost to) and they won-and-covered both previous instances (Virginia, North Carolina) in the regular season. Wolfpack coach Mark Gottfried is 9-10 overall in NCAA Tournament play between his career at Murray State, Alabama and North Carolina State (4-3 with the Wolfpack). Louisville coach Rick Pitino’s NCAA Tournament success is well documented as the only collegiate coach in history to take three different schools to a Final Four. A two-time national champion (Kentucky, Louisville), Pitino’s Cardinals are looking to avoid losing in the Sweet 16 for the second straight season.
In the Valentine’s Day victory at Louisville, North Carolina State was led by its backcourt’s contribution of 45 points combined. Led by G Anthony “Cat” Barber (12.3 PPG, 3.7 APG) who scored 21 of those 45 points (10-for-13 at the free throw line) and supported by G Trevor Lacey (15.7 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 3PM/G) who had 14 points and senior G Ralston Turner (12.8 PPG, 2.6 3PM/G) who chipped in 10 points, the Wolfpack guards did their part on offense while holding Louisville stars Montrezl Harrell and Terry Rozier to a combined 14 points, while also getting Rozier to foul out in 28 minutes.
The North Carolina State big men also did their part, leading the Wolfpack to a +10 margin on the glass (47-37). C Beejay Anya (4.5 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 19.3 MPG) contributed eight points, 10 boards and three blocks in the win, while staying on the court for 28 minutes. Anya, who you’ll remember hit the game-winning shot against LSU in the round of 64 to keep the Wolfpack alive in this tournament, is extremely foul prone, but must stay on the floor to battle Louisville’s size. North Carolina State is 6-1 when Anya plays 25+ minutes.
Another young, foul-prone Wolfpack big man, freshman F Abdul-Malik Abu (6.4 PPG) has also proven himself integral to North Carolina State’s recent success, as he’s scored double-figures in his past three games. Bruising sophomore F Leonard Freeman (3.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG) rounds out the frontcourt, and was a key part in the Wolfpack’s upset over Villanova on Saturday while collecting a double-double (11 points, 12 rebounds). Another win over the Cardinals, though, will begin and end with the Wolfpack’s backcourt taking care of the ball, as Barber, Lacey and Turner only turned it over four times in the first meeting against Louisville’s vaunted defense. North Carolina State only commits 10.5 turnovers per game (22nd in NCAA) which bodes well for repeat success.
The Cardinals seem to have finally found their footing playing without the aforementioned Jones, even though creating easy offense continues to be a problem (61.0 PPG in eight games without Jones). As much as Coach Pitino’s style is a frenetic, pressing, quick-shooting team, this season’s version (at least on offense) is anything but, as both tournament wins over UC Irvine and Northern Iowa have seen Louisville with efficient but very slow-paced offense (57 and 54 possessions, respectively). Part of that had to do with their opponent, but some of it seems to be Pitino playing to his personnel. The Cardinals executed well to the tune of 46% from the field against Northern Iowa and capitalized from the free throw line (17-for-21).
No player came up bigger in the round of 32 than G Terry Rozier (17.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 2 SPG) who put up his most efficient and effective outing since shouldering more of the scoring load with Jones’ departure (25 points, five rebounds, seven assists, 8-for-13 FG, 8-for-9 FT). Rozier can ill-afford a repeat performance of fouling out with single-digits as he did in the first meeting against the Wolfpack. Jones scored 19 points in that loss to keep Louisville afloat, but the Cardinals obviously don’t have that same depth in the backcourt to fall back on. G Quentin Snider (3.8 PPG) has been steady as the new starter flanking Rozier, scoring double-figures in five of his eight starts, including back-to-back games (on 10-for-20 FG) during the NCAA Tournament. Snider isn’t, however, the havoc-inducing defensive force that the departed Jones was in the open floor.
F Montrezl Harrell (15.7 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 57% FG) leads the Louisville frontcourt, but is struggling (by his standards) after entering tournament play with three straight double-doubles. Harrell has only grabbed 10 rebounds total in two NCAA games, while scoring just 22 total points. An increase in pace against an average Wolfpack defense could cure what ails him, although Harrell only went 1-for-5 from the field for seven points and 13 rebounds in the first meeting. F Wayne Blackshear (11.1 PPG, 1.6 3PM/G) is the lone senior on the team and is shooting the ball with confidence from deep over his past three games (7-for-16). Given an opening, Blackshear isn’t shy (19 points on 20 shots in the first round win over UC Irvine), and he enjoyed success in the first meeting versus the Wolfpack (19 points on 7-for-10 from the field, 4-for-6 from three).
UTAH UTES (26-8) vs. DUKE BLUE DEVILS (31-4)
NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 9:45 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Duke -5.5
A clash of styles highlights No. 1 seed Duke taking on No. 5 seed Utah for the right to move on to the Elite Eight. The Duke Blue Devils and their high-powered offense will look to keep pushing the pace when they face off against Utah and the Utes’ stingy defense and grind-it-out style on Friday night. Duke was able to overpower a similarly-profiled foe, No. 8 seed San Diego State, on Saturday to the tune of a 68-49 win. The Blue Devils shot 55% in the win. Duke is 14-1 SU (10-5 ATS) over its past 15 games, including an opening round 85-56 win-and-cover over No. 16 seeded Robert Morris. Utah defeated trendy upset pick, No. 12 seed Stephen F. Austin (57-50) in the opening round, and then dismissed No. 4 seed Georgetown 75-64 on Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. The Utes shot 58% from the field (8-for-14 from three) and had four players in double-figures in the Georgetown win.
Utah is 6-4 SU (4-5-1 ATS) in its past 10 games. Utah lost to San Diego State (Duke and Utah’s only common opponent) 53-49 in mid-November to start out its season. Overall against non-conference NCAA tournament teams, Utah is 2-2 SU (2-2 ATS) but the Utes were just 1-5 SU (1-5 ATS) versus the Pac-12’s other three NCAA tournament teams. Duke was 2-0 SU (2-0) ATS in non-conference games versus NCAA teams and 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) versus ACC foes that made the NCAA tournament. This is the other Coach K’s (Utes’ coach Larry Krystowiak’s) first NCAA appearance with the Utes (Krystowiak was 1-2 in the NCAA tournament as head coach of Montana). Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is the winningest men’s basketball coach in division 1 history, and he’s won 82 NCAA tournament games. Recently, however, Coach K has overseen two early-round exits for his Blue Devils in the past three seasons. Duke has made the Elite Eight once since 2010. Utes G Kenneth Ogbe (groin) (4.5 PPG) has missed the past seven games and is questionable for Friday night.
Utah boasts the 11th best scoring defense in the nation (56.9 PPG) and the 8th best field goal defense in the nation (38.3% FG), both tops in the Pac-12. These gaudy numbers will be put to the test like never before against Duke’s talented, multi-faceted offense. Utah is 0-4 when allowing teams to shoot above 46% from the field (Duke shoots 50.7% FG). That said, Duke is vulnerable on defense. In the five times Duke has allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, it is 1-4 SU (0-5 ATS) with the lone win being a 91-86 overtime squeaker over ACC doormat, Virginia Tech. Utah has been able to shoot 50% or better in four of its past eight games and, like Duke, is a top-10 offense from the field (48.7% FG, 8th in NCAA).
The Utes are led by do-everything senior G Delon Wright (14.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 2.1 SPG, 53% FG). Wright, as a 6-foot-6 point guard, can easily see over the defense to help Utah get easy buckets. His size and athleticism could prove problematic for Duke’s smaller backcourt. Aiding Wright are juniors, G Brandon Taylor (10.7 PPG, 44% 3PT, 2.3 3PM) and F Jordan Loveridge (10.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.0 3PM) have started every game for the Utes in their rise from the bottom of the Pac-12 to the Sweet 16. Taylor is coming off of a 14-point performance (4-for-8 from three) versus Georgetown, while Loveridge has scored double-figures in six of his past seven contests.
In seven-foot freshman C Jakob Poeltl (8.7 PPG, 6.9 PPG, 1.7 BPG) Utah will finally be able to offer a like-sized counterpart for Duke’s standout freshman center, Jahlil Okafor. If Poeltl can stay on the floor and force someone else from the Blue Devils to beat Utah from the perimeter, it would greatly enhance Utah’s chances of pulling the upset. To his credit, Poeltl has played fantastic on offense in Utah’s two tournament wins, having only missed one shot (12-for13 FG) for 30 total points. Foul trouble limited Poeltl to 18 minutes in the Georgetown win, however.
Duke’s offense is, at this point, a well-oiled machine. Its aforementioned 50.9% from the field is good for 2nd overall in the nation. Even Duke’s “off nights” from the field are solid, as it has played an astounding 19 straight games shooting 45% or better from the field. Duke's scoring offense, at 80.4 PPG (4th in NCAA) is impressive, but it doesn’t mean the team has to run-and-gun to win. As shown in the Blue Devils’ blowout win over San Diego State, Duke was able to grind out a 68-49 win with offensive efficiency (54.5% FG, 43% 3PT) against an opponent who – similarly to Utah – struggles to score at times. Utah is content to let their opponents grind out possessions, so expect Duke to be aggressive looking to make the extra pass and find standout C Jahlil Okafor (17.7 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 67% FG).
Utah is a much different defensive team without its own freshman seven-footer, Jakob Poeltl, on the floor, and Okafor is more than capable of getting Poeltl in foul trouble. Okafor has scored 21 and 26 points respectively in his two tournament games. Fellow freshman F Justise Winslow (12.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has been a stat-sheet-stuffer in his two tournament games, averaging 11.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. Don’t be surprised if coach Krzyzewski has Winslow keeping one eye on Utah’s Delon Wright at all times. Gs Tyus Jones (11.6 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Quinn Cook (15.7 PPG, 40% 3PT, 2.8 3PM) round out the firepower for Duke’s offense, as Cook has scored 37 points over his two tournament games (9-for-18 from long distance). Jones has been steady-yet-unspectacular, with 13 assists to only three turnovers, but is capable of popping off for big scoring games when the situation calls for it (see two 20+ point outings versus North Carolina).
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (25-11) vs. OKLAHOMA SOONERS (24-10)
Carrier Dome – Syracuse, NY
NCAA Tournament – Sweet 16
Tip-off: Friday, 10:05 p.m. ET
Sportsbook.ag Line: Michigan State -2.0
Michigan State looks to pull off another upset when it plays Oklahoma for a spot in the Elite Eight Friday. Michigan State faced Virginia in its last game and won 60-54 as a 4.5-point underdog. The Spartans have now won-and-covered in two straight games, allowing just 58.5 PPG in those contests. This team knows how to win games in March and will now look for yet another big win in order to advance in this tournament. Oklahoma is not going to roll over and give it to them though. The Sooners beat Dayton 72-66 as 4-point favorites last round and have now won seven of their past nine games SU. This team has been excellent defensively as well, allowing just 60.5 PPG over the past four games.
These teams last met on Nov. 23, 2013, when Michigan State beat Oklahoma 87-76 as an 11.5-point home favorite. Since 1997, the Spartans are 3-2 SU but just 2-3 ATS against the Sooners, but the meeting in 2013 was their only one in the past three seasons. Michigan State is 13-6 ATS after having won two of its past three games this season. The team is also 13-4 ATS after scoring 60 points or less over the past three seasons. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is 7-0 ATS after failing to cover eight or more of its past 10 games since 1997. F Javon Bess (Foot) is out for the season for Michigan State and Oklahoma is not currently dealing with any significant injuries.
Michigan State has been an extremely tough team to play against on both ends of the floor. The Spartans are scoring 71.9 PPG (67th in NCAA) on 47.1% shooting (32nd NCAA) and allowing just 63.1 PPG (85th in NCAA) this season. The team knows how to move the ball (17.1 APG, 4th in NCAA) and is also very good on the glass (37.7 RPG, 36th in NCAA). G Denzel Valentine (14.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.4 APG) is this team’s most important player, and he was fortunate that his team bailed him out against Virginia. Valentine was awful in that game, scoring just four points (1-for-6 FG) with some awful shooting percentages and he also racked up four personal fouls. He’ll need to find his stroke against Oklahoma and he also has to find a way to stay on the court by playing disciplined defense.
G Travis Trice (15.0 PPG, 5.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is really the reason this team was able to advance. Trice caught fire against the Cavaliers last round, finishing with 23 points (7-for-15 FG, 4-for-8 3PT, 5-for-6 3PT) in 39 minutes of action. Trice will need to continue to knock down outside shoots, which is something he has done all season (37% 3PT). He must also find his teammates when he can’t create for himself, as he is one of the best passers on this Michigan State roster. F Branden Dawson (12.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 1.6 BPG) is this team’s toughest player inside. Dawson came up huge against Virginia last round, scoring 15 points and also adding nine rebounds and four blocks in 34 minutes of action. He’ll need to continue to protect the rim and finish around the basket for the Spartans.
Oklahoma’s numbers were very comparable to Michigan State’s this season, averaging 71.9 PPG (65th in NCAA) on 43.6% shooting (167th in NCAA) and allowing just 62.8 PPG (74th in NCAA). This team is also very tough on the glass, averaging 38.1 RPG (23rd in NCAA) and 27.1 of those come on the defensive end (5th in NCAA). G Buddy Hield (17.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG) is this team’s best offensive player. Hield is averaging 15.0 PPG in the tournament so far, but he is shooting just 34.5% from the field in those two games. He is a good outside shooter (36% 3PT) and must start shooting more accurately, as he can’t afford to shoot his team out of games. G Jordan Woodard (9.3 PPG, 3.9 APG, 3.6 RPG, 1.6 SPG) played one of his best games of the season against Dayton last round, finishing with 16 points, four steals and three assists in 35 minutes of action. He is the best passer that the Sooners have and if he is scoring like that then this team will be very tough to beat.
Isaiah Cousins (11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) is another extremely productive player in this backcourt, but he is averaging just 7.5 PPG in the tournament so far. Cousins will need to be at his best against Michigan State and that would mean he breaks through and finally hits double digits this round. Fs Ryan Spangler (9.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and TaShawn Thomas (11.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG) combined for 21 rebounds in the game against Dayton. They did, however, score just 15 combined points and will need to be much better offensively. These guys are both counted on to reach double digits and they’ll need to play well against this Michigan State frontcourt.
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STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NBA REPORT
FRIDAY, MARCH 27th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Friday, 3/27/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
____________________________________________________________
Inside the Paint – Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Pistons won/covered four of their last five games (1-3-1 AF).
-- Clippers won their last five games (3-8 last 11 AF). 76ers are 5-5 in last ten games, covering four of last five (10-4 last 14 HU).
-- Lakers are 3-2 in last five games; they covered 12 of last 16 (7-0 last seven AU).
-- Cavaliers won eight of their last nine games (8-1 last nine AF). Nets won five of their last seven (3-0 last three HU).
-- Sacramento won its last four games (2-4 last six AU).
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (7-3 last ten HF).
-- Golden State won its last six games, covering five of them (3-8 last 11 AF). Memphis won three of last four games (0-1 HU).
-- Spurs won four of their last five games (7-1 last eight HF).
-- Suns won/covered four of their last five games (5-4 HU).
•Cold Teams
-- Magic lost eight of their last nine games (3-5 last eight HU).
-- Charlotte lost seven of last nine games (10-5 last 15 AU). Wizards lost last four games (5-2 last seven HF).
-- Toronto lost three of its last four games (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Miami lost five of its last six road games (3-5 last eight AU). Hawks lost three of their last four games (2-4 last six HF).
-- Celtics lost three of their last four games (1-3 AF). Knicks lost seven of last eight (3-6 last nine HU).
-- New Orleans lost five of its last six games (0-8 last eight HF).
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games (3-0 last three AU)
-- Mavericks lost five of last six road games (1-9 last ten AU).
-- Utah/Denver both lost four of their last five games (Utah 6-3 last nine AU; Denver 1-5 last six HF).
-- Portland lost five of its last six games (2-5 last seven AF).
•Totals
-- Six of last eight Detroit road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Philly home games stayed under.
-- Last eight Washington home games went over total.
-- Six of last nine Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Brooklyn home games went over.
-- Last four Atlanta home games went over total.
-- Four of last five Boston road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Sacramento road games went over.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Minnesota road games.
-- Last two Memphis home games went over; previous 12 went under.
-- Six of last seven San Antonio home games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Utah road games stayed under.
-- Last seven Portland road games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Pistons are 5-3 in their last eight games with Orlando.
-- Clippers won their last six games with Philadelphia.
-- Hornets won five of last six games with Washington.
-- Lakers won seven of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Nets lost their last four games with Cleveland.
-- Hawks won their last five games with Miami.
-- Celtics won three of last four visits to Madison Square Garden.
-- Kings won four of last five games with New Orleans.
-- Rockets won seven of last eight games with Minnesota.
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Golden State.
-- Home side won last six Dallas-San Antonio games.
-- Road team won five of last seven Denver-Utah games.
-- Suns won five of last seven games with Phoenix.
•Back-To-Backs
-- None
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 235-166 ATS: West 206-192-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 49-56
-- East teams HU vs. West: 45-46
-- West teams HF vs. East: 81-78-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 24-19
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•Situational Trends of The Day
--BOSTON is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was BOSTON 101.8, OPPONENT 96.0.
--PHILADELPHIA is 38-18 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 89.9, OPPONENT 99.9.
--DENVER is 1-13 (-19.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 93.8, OPPONENT 106.3.
--MINNESOTA is 14-28 (-16.8 Units) against the 1rst half line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 47.7, OPPONENT 54.6.
--UTAH is 19-1 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.0, OPPONENT 43.6.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--ATLANTA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 103.7, OPPONENT 99.0.
--MIAMI is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 93.1, OPPONENT 95.3.
--ATLANTA is 25-6 (+22.9 Units) against the money line versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 104.2, OPPONENT 98.5.
--CLEVELAND is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 56.6, OPPONENT 46.1.
--UTAH is 18-1 UNDER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.7, OPPONENT 43.8.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play Against - Any team with a money line of +135 to -155 (ORLANDO) – a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival.
(72-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +54.2 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -148.8
The average score in these games was: Team 106.2, Opponent 99.1 (Average point differential = +7.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +5.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-6, +29.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (231-113, +27.5 units).
--Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (NEW YORK) - a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive home losses.
(29-3 since 1996.) (90.6%, +25.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.8, Opponent 52.8 (Total first half points scored = 104.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
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Friday's NBA Essentials
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•Hornets @ Wizards – 7:05 PM EST
Charlotte has lost seven of nine games to find itself outside the East’s top eight. Al Jefferson is playing through a sore knee that the Hornets say likely won’t be 100 percent the rest of the way. To his credit, he’s posted double-doubles in two of the last three games and will be the focal point of the offense in the post. This will be Charlotte’s final road test of March since its next three games are back home. Kemba Walker is shooting just 34 percent since returning from missing 18 games after January surgery on a torn meniscus, averaging 13.8 points and four assists. Five of Charlotte’s last six games have gone under the posted total.
John Wall and the Wizards began a five-game homestand on Wednesday by finding yet another way to lose. The same formula of starting promisingly and failing to show up for the second half reared its ugly head as Indiana rallied from a 90-80 deficit with just 6:11 to go in handing Washington its fourth straight defeat. Another controversy has engulfed head coach Randy Wittman, who was already in the process of leaving the court while the Wizards final desperation shot was still in the air, leading to many accusing him of quitting on his team. He was reportedly more furious with his team post-game than he’s been at any point this season. Wall scored a season-high 34 points and six assists against Indiana to snap out of a 14-for-44 shooting slump. Bradley Beal was limited to just 11 minutes after spraining his ankle and is considered day-to-day, so monitor his availability closer to tip. The Wizards had won five consecutive games prior to this current run and have slipped to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. They’ll be looking to split the season series with the Hornets. All three games have gone under the posted total.
•Cavaliers @ Nets – 7:35 PM EST
Although the Cavs have big road wins at San Antonio and Dallas this month, it wouldn’t be inaccurate to call Wednesday’s 111-89 win in Memphis the team’s most impressive victory of the season. Not only did Cleveland bully a Grizzlies team that normally reprises that role in their own building, out-rebounding them 49-32 and outscoring them 50-38 in the paint, it did so thanks to a huge lift from Kevin Love. His 22-point, 10-rebound effort was the most complete performance the former All-Star has had in weeks, shooting a season-best 10-for-13 from the field. Love had been in a 13-for-41 shooting slump. LeBron James has only topped the 30-point mark twice this month but is shooting a season-best 41 percent from 3-point range through March’s 13 games. A victory would give the Cavs their third winning streak of five games or more this season. Cleveland has won eight of nine (6-3 ATS) and seen six of eight go over the posted total.
After topping the 120-point mark in three of four outings, Brooklyn has managed just 91 points in each of its last two games, splitting the results. They just suffered a 117-92 loss to the Cavs in Cleveland on March 18, allowing them to shoot 55 percent as seven scored in double-figures. Center Brook Lopez was limited to just 10 points in Cleveland but has been on a tear since, averaging 19.8 shot attempts over his last four games as the focal point of the offense. He’s averaging 30.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks since last facing the Cavs, so it will be interesting to see whether he’s more assertive or hits a stop sign. Thaddeus Young has been ruled out after straining his left knee in Charlotte, so the Nets won’t have the player they would prefer to have out there defending LeBron. He was limited to just 16 minutes due to foul trouble in the most recent loss in Cleveland. The Nets are 4-2-1 ATS in their last nine seven. Six of their last nine have gone over the posted total.
•Warriors @ Grizzlies – 8:05 PM EST
The Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 games and have only been held under 100 points once all month. Golden State is looking to put the finishing touches on the top seed in the Western Conference during this run of seven road dates in eight games, a stretch that got underway on a winning note in a 122-108 Tuesday night stomping of Portland. MVP frontrunner Stephen Curry comes off a brilliant 33-point, 10-assist night against the Trail Blazers and is averaging 22.4 points and 8.9 assists through GSW’s current seven-game winning streak. Since he sat out the Warriors’ last loss to Denver, the team has won the last 12 times he’s played and is 13-1 with him on board in March. Klay Thompson returned from a significant ankle injury earlier this week and scored 16 points against Portland, getting through the second night of a back-to-back without incident.. Golden State has covered in each of its last five games and has seen overs hit in seven of its last eight contests.
The Grizzlies look to respond after their embarrassing loss to Cleveland and have only lost consecutive games twice since the All-Star break. Considering they’re losing their grip on the Southwest Division lead and No. 2 seed they’ve earned thus far, having the Western Conference’s top team come into FedEx Forum presents a major opportunity to get back on track. Marc Gasol grabbed just three rebounds against the Cavs, tying a season-low, but had 24 points and seven boards in his only game against Golden State this season, a 105-98 home win. The teams will meet in Oakland on April 13. Zach Randolph added 17 points and 10 rebounds in that win, but it is worth pointing out that Andrew Bogut didn’t participate due to injury. Jeff Green had not yet been acquired by Memphis either, so this will be a telling game in a potential Western Conference Finals preview. Four of the Grizzlies last five games have gone over the posted total. Memphis just lost for the first time as a home underdog and are right back in that position here.
•Mavericks @ Spurs – 8:35 PM EST
This is a rematch from Tuesday’s huge 101-94 home victory, so it definitely carries a playoff feel. Monta Ellis, who was beginning to catch blame as the reason for the Mavericks struggling since he’d shot 7-for-31 from the field in consecutive losses, dropped 38 points on 16-for-27 shooting in an epic performance. Rajon Rondo, another popular choice as scapegoat for the Mavs struggles, had nine rebounds but only five assists and four turnovers last time out against San Antonio. Dirk Nowitzki’s 15-point, 13-rebound night marked the German’s first double-double since before the All-Star break, just his sixth of the season. It will be compelling to see whether he can put together another strong performance, building momentum down the stretch. Richard Jefferson (back) and Jose Barea (ankle) may miss this contest. Dallas has only covered two of its last 10 games and have seen the over win in six of eight, though its last two have gone under.
The Spurs recovered from losing in Dallas by blasting Oklahoma City 130-91 in perhaps their most impressive performance of the season. By now it’s obvious that the health of Tony Parker is the key to it all, so coming off a 21-point, six-rebound, six-assist night against the Thunder, it’s important that he continue getting everyone involved. Over the last five games, Parker is 24-of-35 against in wins over the Bucks, Celtics, Hawks and Thunder and 3-for-11 in Dallas. Tim Duncan also slumped to a 3-for-7 night in the loss to the Mavs, so look for him to try and be aggressive early. San Antonio has won and covered five of its last six games at home. Nine of the Spurs last 11 games have gone over the posted total.
________________________________________________________________
FRIDAY, MARCH 27th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_____________________________________
***** Friday, 3/27/15 National Basketball Association Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational and Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
____________________________________________________________
Inside the Paint – Friday
•Hot Teams
-- Pistons won/covered four of their last five games (1-3-1 AF).
-- Clippers won their last five games (3-8 last 11 AF). 76ers are 5-5 in last ten games, covering four of last five (10-4 last 14 HU).
-- Lakers are 3-2 in last five games; they covered 12 of last 16 (7-0 last seven AU).
-- Cavaliers won eight of their last nine games (8-1 last nine AF). Nets won five of their last seven (3-0 last three HU).
-- Sacramento won its last four games (2-4 last six AU).
-- Rockets won five of their last six games (7-3 last ten HF).
-- Golden State won its last six games, covering five of them (3-8 last 11 AF). Memphis won three of last four games (0-1 HU).
-- Spurs won four of their last five games (7-1 last eight HF).
-- Suns won/covered four of their last five games (5-4 HU).
•Cold Teams
-- Magic lost eight of their last nine games (3-5 last eight HU).
-- Charlotte lost seven of last nine games (10-5 last 15 AU). Wizards lost last four games (5-2 last seven HF).
-- Toronto lost three of its last four games (2-5 last seven HF).
-- Miami lost five of its last six road games (3-5 last eight AU). Hawks lost three of their last four games (2-4 last six HF).
-- Celtics lost three of their last four games (1-3 AF). Knicks lost seven of last eight (3-6 last nine HU).
-- New Orleans lost five of its last six games (0-8 last eight HF).
-- Minnesota lost eight of its last ten games (3-0 last three AU)
-- Mavericks lost five of last six road games (1-9 last ten AU).
-- Utah/Denver both lost four of their last five games (Utah 6-3 last nine AU; Denver 1-5 last six HF).
-- Portland lost five of its last six games (2-5 last seven AF).
•Totals
-- Six of last eight Detroit road games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Philly home games stayed under.
-- Last eight Washington home games went over total.
-- Six of last nine Toronto home games stayed under.
-- Five of last seven Brooklyn home games went over.
-- Last four Atlanta home games went over total.
-- Four of last five Boston road games stayed under.
-- Six of last seven Sacramento road games went over.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Minnesota road games.
-- Last two Memphis home games went over; previous 12 went under.
-- Six of last seven San Antonio home games went over.
-- Seven of last eight Utah road games stayed under.
-- Last seven Portland road games went over the total.
•Series Records
-- Pistons are 5-3 in their last eight games with Orlando.
-- Clippers won their last six games with Philadelphia.
-- Hornets won five of last six games with Washington.
-- Lakers won seven of last nine games with Toronto.
-- Nets lost their last four games with Cleveland.
-- Hawks won their last five games with Miami.
-- Celtics won three of last four visits to Madison Square Garden.
-- Kings won four of last five games with New Orleans.
-- Rockets won seven of last eight games with Minnesota.
-- Grizzlies won eight of last ten games with Golden State.
-- Home side won last six Dallas-San Antonio games.
-- Road team won five of last seven Denver-Utah games.
-- Suns won five of last seven games with Phoenix.
•Back-To-Backs
-- None
•East vs. West
-- SU: West 235-166 ATS: West 206-192-3
-- East teams HF vs. West: 49-56
-- East teams HU vs. West: 45-46
-- West teams HF vs. East: 81-78-3
-- West teams HU vs. East: 24-19
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•Situational Trends of The Day
--BOSTON is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season.
The average score was BOSTON 101.8, OPPONENT 96.0.
--PHILADELPHIA is 38-18 UNDER (+18.2 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent this season.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 89.9, OPPONENT 99.9.
--DENVER is 1-13 (-19.5 Units) against the money line after scoring 85 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 93.8, OPPONENT 106.3.
--MINNESOTA is 14-28 (-16.8 Units) against the 1rst half line after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 47.7, OPPONENT 54.6.
--UTAH is 19-1 UNDER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.0, OPPONENT 43.6.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--ATLANTA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 103.7, OPPONENT 99.0.
--MIAMI is 15-3 UNDER (+11.7 Units) in road games versus good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts this season.
The average score was MIAMI 93.1, OPPONENT 95.3.
--ATLANTA is 25-6 (+22.9 Units) against the money line versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game this season.
The average score was ATLANTA 104.2, OPPONENT 98.5.
--CLEVELAND is 14-4 (+9.6 Units) against the 1rst half line versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was CLEVELAND 56.6, OPPONENT 46.1.
--UTAH is 18-1 UNDER (+16.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was UTAH 43.7, OPPONENT 43.8.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play Against - Any team with a money line of +135 to -155 (ORLANDO) – a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival.
(72-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (85.7%, +54.2 units. Rating = 6*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -148.8
The average score in these games was: Team 106.2, Opponent 99.1 (Average point differential = +7.1)
The situation's record this season is: (5-0, +5.7 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (37-6, +29.5 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (231-113, +27.5 units).
--Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is between 95.5 and 100.5 points (NEW YORK) - a poor offensive team (88-92 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG), revenging a road blowout loss versus opponent of 20 points or more, off 2 or more consecutive home losses.
(29-3 since 1996.) (90.6%, +25.7 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 97.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.8, Opponent 52.8 (Total first half points scored = 104.5)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
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Friday's NBA Essentials
Systems Analyst Erik Jeromin
•Hornets @ Wizards – 7:05 PM EST
Charlotte has lost seven of nine games to find itself outside the East’s top eight. Al Jefferson is playing through a sore knee that the Hornets say likely won’t be 100 percent the rest of the way. To his credit, he’s posted double-doubles in two of the last three games and will be the focal point of the offense in the post. This will be Charlotte’s final road test of March since its next three games are back home. Kemba Walker is shooting just 34 percent since returning from missing 18 games after January surgery on a torn meniscus, averaging 13.8 points and four assists. Five of Charlotte’s last six games have gone under the posted total.
John Wall and the Wizards began a five-game homestand on Wednesday by finding yet another way to lose. The same formula of starting promisingly and failing to show up for the second half reared its ugly head as Indiana rallied from a 90-80 deficit with just 6:11 to go in handing Washington its fourth straight defeat. Another controversy has engulfed head coach Randy Wittman, who was already in the process of leaving the court while the Wizards final desperation shot was still in the air, leading to many accusing him of quitting on his team. He was reportedly more furious with his team post-game than he’s been at any point this season. Wall scored a season-high 34 points and six assists against Indiana to snap out of a 14-for-44 shooting slump. Bradley Beal was limited to just 11 minutes after spraining his ankle and is considered day-to-day, so monitor his availability closer to tip. The Wizards had won five consecutive games prior to this current run and have slipped to the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference. They’ll be looking to split the season series with the Hornets. All three games have gone under the posted total.
•Cavaliers @ Nets – 7:35 PM EST
Although the Cavs have big road wins at San Antonio and Dallas this month, it wouldn’t be inaccurate to call Wednesday’s 111-89 win in Memphis the team’s most impressive victory of the season. Not only did Cleveland bully a Grizzlies team that normally reprises that role in their own building, out-rebounding them 49-32 and outscoring them 50-38 in the paint, it did so thanks to a huge lift from Kevin Love. His 22-point, 10-rebound effort was the most complete performance the former All-Star has had in weeks, shooting a season-best 10-for-13 from the field. Love had been in a 13-for-41 shooting slump. LeBron James has only topped the 30-point mark twice this month but is shooting a season-best 41 percent from 3-point range through March’s 13 games. A victory would give the Cavs their third winning streak of five games or more this season. Cleveland has won eight of nine (6-3 ATS) and seen six of eight go over the posted total.
After topping the 120-point mark in three of four outings, Brooklyn has managed just 91 points in each of its last two games, splitting the results. They just suffered a 117-92 loss to the Cavs in Cleveland on March 18, allowing them to shoot 55 percent as seven scored in double-figures. Center Brook Lopez was limited to just 10 points in Cleveland but has been on a tear since, averaging 19.8 shot attempts over his last four games as the focal point of the offense. He’s averaging 30.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks since last facing the Cavs, so it will be interesting to see whether he’s more assertive or hits a stop sign. Thaddeus Young has been ruled out after straining his left knee in Charlotte, so the Nets won’t have the player they would prefer to have out there defending LeBron. He was limited to just 16 minutes due to foul trouble in the most recent loss in Cleveland. The Nets are 4-2-1 ATS in their last nine seven. Six of their last nine have gone over the posted total.
•Warriors @ Grizzlies – 8:05 PM EST
The Warriors have won 12 of their last 13 games and have only been held under 100 points once all month. Golden State is looking to put the finishing touches on the top seed in the Western Conference during this run of seven road dates in eight games, a stretch that got underway on a winning note in a 122-108 Tuesday night stomping of Portland. MVP frontrunner Stephen Curry comes off a brilliant 33-point, 10-assist night against the Trail Blazers and is averaging 22.4 points and 8.9 assists through GSW’s current seven-game winning streak. Since he sat out the Warriors’ last loss to Denver, the team has won the last 12 times he’s played and is 13-1 with him on board in March. Klay Thompson returned from a significant ankle injury earlier this week and scored 16 points against Portland, getting through the second night of a back-to-back without incident.. Golden State has covered in each of its last five games and has seen overs hit in seven of its last eight contests.
The Grizzlies look to respond after their embarrassing loss to Cleveland and have only lost consecutive games twice since the All-Star break. Considering they’re losing their grip on the Southwest Division lead and No. 2 seed they’ve earned thus far, having the Western Conference’s top team come into FedEx Forum presents a major opportunity to get back on track. Marc Gasol grabbed just three rebounds against the Cavs, tying a season-low, but had 24 points and seven boards in his only game against Golden State this season, a 105-98 home win. The teams will meet in Oakland on April 13. Zach Randolph added 17 points and 10 rebounds in that win, but it is worth pointing out that Andrew Bogut didn’t participate due to injury. Jeff Green had not yet been acquired by Memphis either, so this will be a telling game in a potential Western Conference Finals preview. Four of the Grizzlies last five games have gone over the posted total. Memphis just lost for the first time as a home underdog and are right back in that position here.
•Mavericks @ Spurs – 8:35 PM EST
This is a rematch from Tuesday’s huge 101-94 home victory, so it definitely carries a playoff feel. Monta Ellis, who was beginning to catch blame as the reason for the Mavericks struggling since he’d shot 7-for-31 from the field in consecutive losses, dropped 38 points on 16-for-27 shooting in an epic performance. Rajon Rondo, another popular choice as scapegoat for the Mavs struggles, had nine rebounds but only five assists and four turnovers last time out against San Antonio. Dirk Nowitzki’s 15-point, 13-rebound night marked the German’s first double-double since before the All-Star break, just his sixth of the season. It will be compelling to see whether he can put together another strong performance, building momentum down the stretch. Richard Jefferson (back) and Jose Barea (ankle) may miss this contest. Dallas has only covered two of its last 10 games and have seen the over win in six of eight, though its last two have gone under.
The Spurs recovered from losing in Dallas by blasting Oklahoma City 130-91 in perhaps their most impressive performance of the season. By now it’s obvious that the health of Tony Parker is the key to it all, so coming off a 21-point, six-rebound, six-assist night against the Thunder, it’s important that he continue getting everyone involved. Over the last five games, Parker is 24-of-35 against in wins over the Bucks, Celtics, Hawks and Thunder and 3-for-11 in Dallas. Tim Duncan also slumped to a 3-for-7 night in the loss to the Mavs, so look for him to try and be aggressive early. San Antonio has won and covered five of its last six games at home. Nine of the Spurs last 11 games have gone over the posted total.
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BONDI Bonus Play
[h=2]Friday, March 27[/h][h=3]NCAA Tournament[/h]GONZAGA (-8.5) over UCLA
7:15 p.m. ETWe had another winner on Wednesday with Wisconsin running our record too 13-4 the last 17 days. On Harry Bondi's Steam Team phone service it's 5 Star Friday! Call 1-877-332-0077 to get tonight's 5 Star Lock for just $100 or the rest of our Tournament and NBA selections through April 6th for only $250! Tonight we look at the NCAA Tournament game between Gonzaga and UCLA for your FREE Winner. Where Gonzaga has a huge advantage in this game is that all five guys that start as well as their top two guys off the bench are capable of scoring 15+ points a night. Only Kentucky can match that kind of scoring depth. The Zags lead the country in field goal percentage at 54% and they should shoot even better than that tonight against a porous Bruins defense that is giving up almost 70 points per game! UCLA couldn't keep pace with Gonzaga in an 87-74 loss in December at Pauley Pavillion ans will fare no better tonight. ZAGS!
[h=2]Friday, March 27[/h][h=3]NCAA Tournament[/h]GONZAGA (-8.5) over UCLA
7:15 p.m. ETWe had another winner on Wednesday with Wisconsin running our record too 13-4 the last 17 days. On Harry Bondi's Steam Team phone service it's 5 Star Friday! Call 1-877-332-0077 to get tonight's 5 Star Lock for just $100 or the rest of our Tournament and NBA selections through April 6th for only $250! Tonight we look at the NCAA Tournament game between Gonzaga and UCLA for your FREE Winner. Where Gonzaga has a huge advantage in this game is that all five guys that start as well as their top two guys off the bench are capable of scoring 15+ points a night. Only Kentucky can match that kind of scoring depth. The Zags lead the country in field goal percentage at 54% and they should shoot even better than that tonight against a porous Bruins defense that is giving up almost 70 points per game! UCLA couldn't keep pace with Gonzaga in an 87-74 loss in December at Pauley Pavillion ans will fare no better tonight. ZAGS!
