Steve Merril
Friday, Mar. 11
NBA
(3% play) UNDER 203 (Knicks/Clippers) - 10:35 pm ET (NBA-tv) #518
New York comes into tonight’s game in Los Angeles off a 128-97 blowout win in Phoenix on Wednesday night. The 128 points scored by the Knicks was one of their best offensive performances of the season. New York had seven players score in double digits while shooting 56.1% (46-82) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land. The Knicks also hit 83.3% (20-24) from the free throw line. New York’s offense played a perfect game, but we expect major regression tonight. Prior to that offensive outburst, the Knicks did not eclipse more than 105 points in 14 of their previous 16 games. New York’s offensive performance against the Suns was an anomaly, and there’s a high probability that the Knicks will not come close to matching that efficient production.
Los Angeles returns home off a 120-108 blowout loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. The Clippers were in a terrible spot for that game, so we can dismiss the results. Los Angeles played one of their worst defensive games of the season as they allowed the Thunder to shoot 52.7% (48-91) from the field in that game. Off that loss, and with a return home, we expect a much better defensive performance by the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles also lost their previous home game because of poor defense; they allowed 107 points to the Hawks. Prior to their awful defensive effort against the Thunder, Los Angeles had held six of their previous nine opponents to 98 points or less. In an earlier season meeting, the Clippers held the Knicks to just 88 points on 38.8% (33-85) shooting from the field and 22.2% (4-18) shooting from three-point land. Look for a low-scoring game between the Knicks and Clippers on Friday night.
Play UNDER (Knicks/Clippers) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) NORTH CAROLINA -7 (vs. Notre Dame) - 7:00 pm ET (ESPN) #562
Notre Dame comes into tonight’s game against North Carolina on a back-to-back set after beating Duke in overtime yesterday afternoon. The Irish won that game 84-79 after coming back from a 16-point second half deficit. Notre Dame plays an extremely short rotation, and they had three of their starters play 41 minutes or more while all five starters played 35 minutes or more. The Irish only play a 6-man rotation, and the extended minutes last night will have a major impact on tonight’s game, especially since Notre Dame will be forced into a fast-paced game by North Carolina. The Irish also shot 50% (30-60) from the field last night, so a repeat performance is highly unlikely simply because of the terrible situational and scheduling Notre Dame now faces tonight. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 75 points or more in three of their last four games, and tonight they will be playing on tired legs.
North Carolina cruised to an 88-71 win over Pittsburgh yesterday. The Tar Heels had eight guys play 14 minutes or more, so they are a much deeper team than Notre Dame, and they will also be much fresher for tonight’s game. North Carolina is also taking this game seriously after losing to the Irish earlier this season. The Tar Heels blew a 15-point lead on Notre Dame’s home court in that game. North Carolina also lost to Notre Dame in last year’s ACC tournament; the Tar Heels blew an 8-point lead with less than ten minutes to play in that game. Those blown losses will have North Carolina primed for a peak performance tonight. Overall, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 83.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field this season. North Carolina is catching Notre Dame at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Friday night.
Play NORTH CAROLINA (-) as a 3% play.
Friday, Mar. 11
NBA
(3% play) UNDER 203 (Knicks/Clippers) - 10:35 pm ET (NBA-tv) #518
New York comes into tonight’s game in Los Angeles off a 128-97 blowout win in Phoenix on Wednesday night. The 128 points scored by the Knicks was one of their best offensive performances of the season. New York had seven players score in double digits while shooting 56.1% (46-82) from the field and an incredible 66.7% (16-24) from three-point land. The Knicks also hit 83.3% (20-24) from the free throw line. New York’s offense played a perfect game, but we expect major regression tonight. Prior to that offensive outburst, the Knicks did not eclipse more than 105 points in 14 of their previous 16 games. New York’s offensive performance against the Suns was an anomaly, and there’s a high probability that the Knicks will not come close to matching that efficient production.
Los Angeles returns home off a 120-108 blowout loss at Oklahoma City on Wednesday night. The Clippers were in a terrible spot for that game, so we can dismiss the results. Los Angeles played one of their worst defensive games of the season as they allowed the Thunder to shoot 52.7% (48-91) from the field in that game. Off that loss, and with a return home, we expect a much better defensive performance by the Clippers tonight. Los Angeles also lost their previous home game because of poor defense; they allowed 107 points to the Hawks. Prior to their awful defensive effort against the Thunder, Los Angeles had held six of their previous nine opponents to 98 points or less. In an earlier season meeting, the Clippers held the Knicks to just 88 points on 38.8% (33-85) shooting from the field and 22.2% (4-18) shooting from three-point land. Look for a low-scoring game between the Knicks and Clippers on Friday night.
Play UNDER (Knicks/Clippers) as a 3% play.
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NCAA Basketball
(3% play) NORTH CAROLINA -7 (vs. Notre Dame) - 7:00 pm ET (ESPN) #562
Notre Dame comes into tonight’s game against North Carolina on a back-to-back set after beating Duke in overtime yesterday afternoon. The Irish won that game 84-79 after coming back from a 16-point second half deficit. Notre Dame plays an extremely short rotation, and they had three of their starters play 41 minutes or more while all five starters played 35 minutes or more. The Irish only play a 6-man rotation, and the extended minutes last night will have a major impact on tonight’s game, especially since Notre Dame will be forced into a fast-paced game by North Carolina. The Irish also shot 50% (30-60) from the field last night, so a repeat performance is highly unlikely simply because of the terrible situational and scheduling Notre Dame now faces tonight. Notre Dame’s defense has allowed 75 points or more in three of their last four games, and tonight they will be playing on tired legs.
North Carolina cruised to an 88-71 win over Pittsburgh yesterday. The Tar Heels had eight guys play 14 minutes or more, so they are a much deeper team than Notre Dame, and they will also be much fresher for tonight’s game. North Carolina is also taking this game seriously after losing to the Irish earlier this season. The Tar Heels blew a 15-point lead on Notre Dame’s home court in that game. North Carolina also lost to Notre Dame in last year’s ACC tournament; the Tar Heels blew an 8-point lead with less than ten minutes to play in that game. Those blown losses will have North Carolina primed for a peak performance tonight. Overall, the Tar Heels’ offense is averaging 83.1 points per game on 47.9% shooting from the field this season. North Carolina is catching Notre Dame at the perfect time, so we’ll lay the points with the Tar Heels in this game on Friday night.
Play NORTH CAROLINA (-) as a 3% play.
